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08-09-2023 , 12:16 AM
Oh ONE MORE POINT.

When you think about it, they don't really need to police everyone; just the people winning the most. If someone wants to set up a dream machine and half-use it to be a small winner, it's not ideal, but poker won't die. They could have just studied to become a small winner instead
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08-09-2023 , 12:18 AM
Is there something that could be done with IP address privacy consent wavers? Like, "Hey every time you're in a session, someone in your house is on DeepSolve or GTOWizard. Stop doing that. Strike 1" type of thing?
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08-09-2023 , 12:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ColliePoker
There are a lot of useful lessons to be drawn from the competitive chess community, I think.

First of all, I think stopping cheating in online poker will run into the same issue as stopping cheating at a high level in online chess. People have been saying that GTO Wizard could merge with Stars and other sites and then flag cheaters. Chess.com bans people all the time for playing so many high accuracy moves that the odds of it being human at their recorded strength are statistically too small.

At a higher level of cheating, Grandmaster chess players play as themselves for 90% of the game and then for 1-3 of the trickiest moves, they rely on a computer. This makes it virtually impossible to prove they cheated.

You can imagine all kinds of similar circumnavigations with Poker. I play 200nl and 500nl. Mostly I know what I'm doing. If every 1000 hands I used a solver, this would be impossible to prove as cheating.


Not to mention, let's say the solver says bet hand X for 25% pot 1/2 the time. Well first of all, we don't know if I'm randomizing exactly 50-50 or not, so it's tough to say if I'm following the solver output. On top of that, what if I bet 27%? You'd need a very smart AI to flag that.

Or, what if I'm a smart player and I look at a solver output and I think "Okay, looking at this output, I notice that it is extremely difficult to find natural bluffs for my opponent. Since I am looking at this output, it is very easy for me to get a concrete sense of how much value he has compared to bluffs. Ergo, I will pure fold this hand that actually I bet the solver is mixing. Or even pure fold this hand that is really a pure call."

Similarly, let's say the solver likes specifically the busted flush draw with 86 of hearts. All busted flush draws bluff at some frequency, but it pure bluffs 86 of hearts. Who cares! I look at the output, I see that busted flush draws bet at 70% frequency, so I randomize my specific busted flush draw and bet it.

People are obsessed with blockers but they are very little of the winrate. Mostly it is about not overbluffing or underbluffing backed by a reasonable amount of common sense. Back to the chess analogy, I don't have to make the best move every time. I am better than 99.999999999% of humans if I just never blunder.
And a blunder in this case would be something like bluffing with Ace high when there are way too many weaker hands to bluff with.

As cheating becomes more and more of a part of online poker, so will catching cheaters. Actually cheating in chess is somewhat irrational in the sense that if you are already eking out a living playing chess professionally, you are risking a great deal just to win 1 tournament by cheating. Just being suspected of cheating can be so damaging to your career. If it was ever proven, you'd be completely ****ed. If these sites invest in anti-cheating technology, there will still be cheaters. But hopefully few enough at the highest level to kill the games. And then at the lower levels, hopefully enough people that just totally suck at cheating.

The last five years, it seems like online poker sites have not truly prioritized the longterm sustainability of their market. Disaster will be if they simply can't bother to properly fund anti-cheating measures. One thing we have going for us is that recreationals and professionals probably hate cheating a similar amount. Online sites have failed to cater to pros which is short-sighted in the sense that people get into poker to become pros. If people stop aspiring to be pros, their market will die in the long term. In this case however, they might be worried about their market dying in the SHORT term. So, I'm like 80% confident most sites will try their best to keep up with anti cheating measures.

Hopefully that wasn't too ramble-y
The outcome of a chess game can often be determined by one or two critical moves. Poker is more like thousands of small edges adding up.

GTOW AI can already solve for whatever bet sizes were used in game.

Also, unlike chess, RTA-detection in poker relies on a large sample of hands. You have to measure aggregate stats. The cool thing about GTO Wizard is that they're building GTO reports, so you'll be able to measure things like total betting volume or how much EV you allocate to various lines.

Reports like this could potentially act as flags to identify superhuman play when analyzing a large sample of hands. It doesn't really matter if your particular dream machine uses 27%/71%/120% or 33%/66%, some of these stats are invariable between different solver algorithms and betting structures.

I also think it would be important to filter for the most important spots. For example, looking at just the stats of just the 30bb+ pots, or examining the stats of only 4BPs, etc. Perhaps filtering out hands that were played against obvious whales where we'd expect someone to deviate.

Last edited by tombos21; 08-09-2023 at 12:51 AM.
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08-09-2023 , 12:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ColliePoker
Does the tool only flag identical matches for suits? Like, what if a player is trying to solve AhAd3d2d and they look up AcAs3s2s instead?
It would need to be suit isomorphic otherwise it's too easy to workaround.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ColliePoker
Oh ONE MORE POINT.

When you think about it, they don't really need to police everyone; just the people winning the most. If someone wants to set up a dream machine and half-use it to be a small winner, it's not ideal, but poker won't die. They could have just studied to become a small winner instead
Anything that improves game integrity is a good step forward.
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08-09-2023 , 01:21 AM
Thanks for the info, I agree it could be a potentially helpful deterrent, and certainly better to have it than not have it. I’m still confused about the fact that a particular flop can be accessed by multiple users at the same time. Like, isn’t the flop QsQc5s likely being looked at by at least two GTOW users at the exact time that I type this?
“You’d be crazy to cheat knowing this exists” - ok I mean I respect your point but that is total hyperbole, it depends on sites’ willingness to enforce. Are specific sites on board for this?
I could imagine a scenario where a site starts getting flooded with GTOW users hand reports and kinda just wishes this hand checking feature didn’t exist. Some sites could be notoriously cheap on security, hard to work with, not take seriously poker software companies, etc
Thx
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08-09-2023 , 01:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tombos21
Why? GTO Wizard can already read hand histories from over 17 different site formats. And there's no reason to assume the fair play checker would need a hand history. .
Well, the site I play on doesn’t provide HHs in any kind of time stamped or downloadable format.
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08-09-2023 , 02:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tombos21


Also, unlike chess, RTA-detection in poker relies on a large sample of hands. You have to measure aggregate stats. The cool thing about GTO Wizard is that they're building GTO reports, so you'll be able to measure things like total betting volume or how much EV you allocate to various lines.

Reports like this could potentially act as flags to identify superhuman play when analyzing a large sample of hands. It doesn't really matter if your particular dream machine uses 27%/71%/120% or 33%/66%, some of these stats are invariable between different solver algorithms and betting structures.

I also think it would be important to filter for the most important spots. For example, looking at just the stats of just the 30bb+ pots, or examining the stats of only 4BPs, etc. Perhaps filtering out hands that were played against obvious whales where we'd expect someone to deviate.
Thanks. Yeah, detecting non-human play sounds very doable. You analyze Llinus and whoever else a whole bunch, and the limits of human play will become obvious. I'm still concerned that people can get overall frequencies relatively in line without relying on unintuitive combos a bunch, and they'll be competitors at the highest stakes. But maybe by comparing their bet/call/fold volumes, something gets flagged over aggregate.

‐-------------

And I can forsee a situation where it's tough to hit-and-run 1knl+ over 12 months by cheating without a lot of questions about where you were playing previously and so on. Might need to rely on cross-site data sharing.

But yeah all of this is 100% going to take very specific choices from sites going forward
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08-09-2023 , 04:47 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RalphWaldoEmerson
Thanks for the info, I agree it could be a potentially helpful deterrent, and certainly better to have it than not have it. I’m still confused about the fact that a particular flop can be accessed by multiple users at the same time. Like, isn’t the flop QsQc5s likely being looked at by at least two GTOW users at the exact time that I type this?
There are 22000 unique flops and 1755 strategically distinct flops. I would be very surprised if even a few of them were being double-solved every 5 minutes. Maybe AK6r - people seem to love solving AK6r idk why.

Regardless, it's easy to enforce narrower or wider search conditions if this is a problem.

Quote:
“You’d be crazy to cheat knowing this exists” - ok I mean I respect your point but that is total hyperbole, it depends on sites’ willingness to enforce. Are specific sites on board for this?
If a site is completely unwilling to do anything about security, I would recommend not playing on that site. At some point operators need to step up and take responsibility.

Yes, we're already working directly with several major poker operators. Direct integration with their security teams. Statements from those sites will be published soon. Probably at the same time as when this tool goes live.
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08-12-2023 , 12:01 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ColliePoker
At a higher level of cheating, Grandmaster chess players play as themselves for 90% of the game and then for 1-3 of the trickiest moves, they rely on a computer. This makes it virtually impossible to prove they cheated.
This came up in the wake of each of the Potripper and Nionio scandals at AP and UB, respectively, and I'm sure it surfaced after the Mike Postle thing at Stones. If the cheaters had played the game normally, then only peeked at Godmode in a few close spots, they would have been more devastating in the long run. Something something shearing a sheep vs. skinning it.

In fact, I often wonder how much cheating HAS gone undetected precisely because the perpetrators did things in a more measured way. That was a common theory during the AP and UB scandals, that cheaters were more intermittent for a long time, and only became more blatant when the clock began running out on U.S.-facing poker in the late 2000s.
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08-12-2023 , 02:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Doctor_Strangelove
Soon you will be able to check this:



At least I hope it applies to the pre solved solutions as well?
Nice Avatar
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08-12-2023 , 07:47 AM
Not that it's much of a consolation, but at least GTOW AI isn't super accurate. Solves run on PIO are still going to play better. However, doesn't do much to counter RTA.
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08-12-2023 , 01:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wilbury Twist
One of the ideas in the comments is that sites like Pokerstars could integrate with GTO Wizard such that it uses the solves to determine how well a player's actions mirror the solutions.

Of course, that idea is greatly flawed: if someone just so happens to learn certain scenarios too well, they'll get penalized for it. Furthermore, there will be some very obvious decisions that also match the solve, resulting in false positives ("He just folded 86 hearts on a black monotone AKQJ board... how did he know to do this??")

Out of curiosity, how do these tools currently prevent from being used in real time? I know there was some kerfuffle about one of them removing a 30-second delay. So clearly that wait time was/is one of those measures.
These are not real issues. Chess sites have been doing this successfully for years. Obviously you don't ban someone for making a few great plays, you look for long stretches of near perfect play with no significant mistakes in big pots.
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08-12-2023 , 03:20 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by norwich
Not that it's much of a consolation, but at least GTOW AI isn't super accurate. Solves run on PIO are still going to play better. However, doesn't do much to counter RTA.
Not disagreeing cause I honestly don't know, but curious if you have data for that? The user friendliness is pretty sweet instead of how tedious tree building in Pio can be, but accuracy is important.

I'd be interested in seeing a breakdown/comparison of the two programs.
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08-12-2023 , 04:08 PM
Only novice RTA Users will rely on GTOWizard and on top if that GTOWizard solutions have too many Betsizes atm. Industry Gold Standard are custom private solutions with simplified Betsizing(like 1 or 2 sizings) which get !automatically presented to the user by custom Software. Clicking through GTO Wizard manually and looking at 5 Betsizes is very 2016
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08-12-2023 , 05:53 PM
@rakkazzar - that is what the GTOW AI does in a nutshell. It's called "custom solutions" in the program, different from GTOW's presolved library. Dynamic mode automatically sets whatever setup you want with the optimal bet sizes for that scenario
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08-12-2023 , 06:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by norwich
Not that it's much of a consolation, but at least GTOW AI isn't super accurate. Solves run on PIO are still going to play better. However, doesn't do much to counter RTA.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ejames209
Not disagreeing cause I honestly don't know, but curious if you have data for that? The user friendliness is pretty sweet instead of how tedious tree building in Pio can be, but accuracy is important.

I'd be interested in seeing a breakdown/comparison of the two programs.
afaik, GTOW AI is plenty accurate.

Source: GTO Wizard AI Benchmarks

95 GB tree



Quote:
Exploitability
We solved 900 flops in order to benchmark our custom solutions against PioSolver!

In order to test how accurate our solutions are, we nodelocked our flop strategies into PioSolver and measured the EV loss. On average, our custom solutions only lost 0.21% of the pot against the best possible counter-strategy PioSolver could come up with. Most solutions achieved an accuracy between 0.15% and 0.30%.
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08-12-2023 , 08:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Doctor_Strangelove
afaik, GTOW AI is plenty accurate.

Source: GTO Wizard AI Benchmarks

95 GB tree





This can been briefly discussed in PIO discord, but their way of comparing PIO's accuracy vs their approach is dishonest. It produces super-human outputs nonetheless, but not a fair benchmark
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08-12-2023 , 09:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nucularburro
And they were right 15 years ago.
Funny I play poker every day and still plenty fish
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08-13-2023 , 06:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ejames209
@rakkazzar - that is what the GTOW AI does in a nutshell. It's called "custom solutions" in the program, different from GTOW's presolved library. Dynamic mode automatically sets whatever setup you want with the optimal bet sizes for that scenario
yeah im just trying to say, this **** is nothing new, exactly this is going on for years already(not dynamic AI approximations but custom software displays presolved PIO solution for exact spots) in example Fedor Kruse case and it wasnt the pokersite catching Kruse, his roommates reported him.
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08-13-2023 , 11:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nucularburro
And they were right 15 years ago.
Lol. If you aren't a winning player online these days, idk what to tell you.
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09-19-2023 , 08:55 PM
Great move to work with operators, now people getting banned and they dont know what hit them, much love <3
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09-19-2023 , 11:24 PM
Lol at thinking anything meaningful will be done about cheating in online pokers. We dont even know for sure the sites arent the biggest cheaters in all of poker. It happened many times before. Where there is easy money without regulation, many hands will always be in the cookie jar
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09-20-2023 , 12:53 AM
I just want to offer up this diagram one more time where its most relevant:



In cypherpoker gto bots are used as an axiom. Its a necessary observation. I see the community as over time slow starting to see the importance of a missing equilibrium in their lexicon and strategy analysis frameworks. In this thread people are talking around it and so its illuminating it. If you structure the system as described above you will trend it towards the equilibrium (its also where the real profits are!).

To put cliffs notes to the orientation of the axiom... 'how many of you suffer from gto home game bots'?
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09-20-2023 , 04:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jbouton
I just want to offer up this diagram one more time where its most relevant:



In cypherpoker gto bots are used as an axiom. Its a necessary observation. I see the community as over time slow starting to see the importance of a missing equilibrium in their lexicon and strategy analysis frameworks. In this thread people are talking around it and so its illuminating it. If you structure the system as described above you will trend it towards the equilibrium (its also where the real profits are!).

To put cliffs notes to the orientation of the axiom... 'how many of you suffer from gto home game bots'?
Do you have a higher-resolution version of this picture? This one is unreadable.
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