Quote:
Originally Posted by 2Pretty2Lose
well, we already know 95% of the balances were less than $100 (Tapie). We know they sent 1.4M emails, if even 1M of those are legit accounts, that means 50k people have a balance over $100 (5% x 1M), they have received 27k petitions (not even half of what would be expected if EVERY person with balance over $100 submitted)...its clear at this point there is way more than enough money to pay balances and it just doesnt seem logical at all for this to drag on, esp when DOJ and GCG have expressed interest in this ending fast. I think at this point in the process, its a reasonable request, to start finding out when a reasonable timeframe for payouts would be.
You are basing your position on a number of assumptions. Some of those assumptions are perfectly reasonable, but the AFMLS is not allowed to act on such assumptions. Like you, I am convinced they have more than enough money to handle all the petitions they will receive, but the AFMLS is not allowed to act on such a conclusion until it has been shown to be true by examining the amount of every petition. What they said is that they may begin to distribute funds for uncontested petitions before they have evaluated the merits of petitions contesting the blance,
as long as the total of all petitions recevied by the bar date is less than the amount of funds available. With nearly half of the time for submitting petitions remaining, they can't even act on a reasonable guess as to how many petitions they will receive in total, how many will have to be human-read to determine the amount claimed, and what the ceilinh for total claims will be, so at this point they cannot give a good estimate of when they will know the total amount claimed. (I expect distributions of uncontested balances to begin shortly after such a date.)
Some of your assumptions may not be so reasonable. For instance, you seem to be treating the distribution of petition submission over time as relatively even, or perhaps front-end loaded. What reason do we have to believe that the distribution isn't U-shaped, or just exponentially increasing? I think it is perfectly reasonable to assume that many of the petitions for larger balances and many of those disputing the amount of larger balances will not be filed until closer to the bar date.