Quote:
Originally Posted by BSumner
For me it keeps coming down to this, if you only play the best hands in PLO, and get 4 callers, and you're all in pre, at best you're like 25% to win and 75% to lose, it doesnt matter how tight you are, when it's 4 ways, you're always a dog. ...
You can say, "but I got it in with the most equity" well BFD, you're still a huge dog to win pretty much every time due to the fact no one folds.
Thus, it's bingo! If you only played AA in NLHE and everytime you did, you were all in pre against 4 others, you're still gonna go broke. That's just a mathematical fact. If you're always a dog to win, you cant win long term. This fact is literally how Vegas was built. ...
Please reread this. Do you see how wrong it is? How can you think that if you get to play AA allin preflop against four others you are losing? Sure, let's pretend you are now down to 45% chance of winning (you are actually still over 50%). But, since you will win back 5x what you put into the pot, it is hugely +EV. This should be a dream scenario.
Even in your PLO scenario, where you win 25% of a five way pot, you are still hugely +EV. If you invest 1000 into this pot, and win 25%, your EV is 1250. If you can do that just four times per hour in this game, your win rate is $1000/hour. How is that not a great thing for you??
Your mathematical fact is just blatantly wrong. This is probably why you just don't get it. I suspect the real issue is emotional. You can't handle even short losing streaks, and your variance is lower in NLH, so you like it better. But to launch into a soliloquy about how right you are, even though you know everyone will disagree with you shows some real cognitive dissonance. You need to understand you are just plain wrong. Or, move on and never talk about PLO ever again.
Cheers, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)