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FTP Discussion Thread (Everything but big new news goes here. Cliffs in OP) FTP Discussion Thread (Everything but big new news goes here. Cliffs in OP)
View Poll Results: Do you want the AGCC to regulate the new FTP?
Yes
1,156 56.58%
No
887 43.42%

09-27-2011 , 05:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by OnWithTheShow
To think they were raking less then 3-4 million a day is LA-LA land. People that would know have cited those figures to me. 9 million a day for Pokerstars, 5-7 for FTP and the industry standard was to have 1/3 of all players balances ready for withdrawal.

Believe what you want, but these are the numbers that were told to me and these are the #s that makes sense when both sites were raking 100k+ from A SINGLE POKER TOURNAMENT. that took only a few hours to conclude.

I don't have to be right but if these people were only raking 1 million a day they'd all kill themselves.

The amount of money missing is staggering. I can't cite anyone that told me but I am pretty sure Eric Morris said on the QJ podcast one day that he heard Pokerstars had raked as much as 11 million in one day. I am not sure if he was the one that said it, but someone credible on their podcast right after Black Friday quoted that number.
so tilt was raking about 2 billion a year huh, and managed to net only something like 100 million. They would only be netting 5% of the gross rake, which is laughable. Your numbers are way way off.

The industry "standard" for money on hand is 100% of player deposits as per stars/tilts gambling license regulations, not sure where this 1/3 number u are pulling out of your ass comes from.
09-27-2011 , 05:56 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Eldorian
HAHA!

this REALLY narrows it down, it basically is down to mike and bunner; as Adam said on the podcast those are the only ppl he would trust with his holecard information... he might have mentioned his brother as well but not more than those three...
I can go on record and officially announce that Bunner is not deep throat
09-27-2011 , 05:58 AM
Regulate it so at least some non-americans can hopefully cash out. This is crazy already!
09-27-2011 , 06:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AdamSchwartz
I can go on record and officially announce that Bunner is not deep throat
This is not in the least bit a personal attack, but who are you?

Obviously I am just reaching here to get a better sense of this news, but can you give any more background on yourself to those of us that are not familiar?

Also, could you give some form of analogy as to how insider your source is?
09-27-2011 , 06:54 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by insidemanpoker
This is not in the least bit a personal attack, but who are you?

Obviously I am just reaching here to get a better sense of this news, but can you give any more background on yourself to those of us that are not familiar?

Also, could you give some form of analogy as to how insider your source is?
we obviously need more pokercast banners on the site...

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/97...two-pokercast/
09-27-2011 , 06:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blizzuff
Yeah, and hopefully Harry is wrong. If it turns out the French investor was total B.S. the entire time, it will be completely sick and twisted. Getting players hopes up one last time like this when there's nothing behind it would just be as cruel as it gets. I really find it hard to believe that's the case, but we'll see.
+1

Also I just don't see what buying time can get them, other than the hell out of dodge if they want to avoid jailtime.

That aside, there seems to be too many supporting events that are surrounding this that make it seem at least somewhat believable. I don't think the AGCC would be stalling/taking this long with the hearing decision unless there was some proof of the investor claims. I also don't think Dwan would come out as their puppet any more and has learnt to be a little more skeptical of sources, so for him to come out and say its legitimate interest is something. Noah has seen the letter of intent himself if I'm not mistaken.

Putting all this together it seems very unlikely in my mind that this is some fabricated tale put out there by tilt. And thats something these days too...I think I'm not the only one that has become a hardened skeptic out of this year's events.
09-27-2011 , 07:11 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by NCSU07
+1, theres no way ftp raked near 1billion/year
PartyGaming (pre merger) raked €340,000 (gross) a day in poker in 2010. That's approx $450k a day.

FTP was around 3 times the size according to pokerscout at the time.
09-27-2011 , 07:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AdamSchwartz
I can go on record and officially announce that Bunner is not deep throat
Adam, any additional information? I also understand you can't give away your source, but is he a high profile player/someone involved in the negotiations/other? No offence but it's really lame to twitter huge news and then make nothing but a lame joke about it a couple hours later when people get all excited and want new info.
09-27-2011 , 07:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hdemet
I still believe that all this optimism surrounding the French investor is all just wishful thinking through last minute sheer desperation and just deliberate rumour spreadng by FTP but lets hope I am wrong.
You are wrong.
IIRC Jeff I. told us back in August, after the period of exclusivity expired with the other investor, that there were still 3 potential investors in the wings. Like most people, I doubted this was true as well. I was wrong.

All I can say is that this current investor is real. I have personally seen the docs. I won't comment on the investor name or the terms at this time. As with any deal, even the seemingly ultra un-encumbered ones, there are always things that can make it happen/not happen, so I can never say it is a "sure thing", but I can say that everyone is working very hard to make it happen.
09-27-2011 , 07:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Diamond_Flush
You are wrong.
IIRC Jeff I. told us back in August, after the period of exclusivity expired with the other investor, that there were still 3 potential investors in the wings. Like most people, I doubted this was true as well. I was wrong.

All I can say is that this current investor is real. I have personally seen the docs. I won't comment on the investor name or the terms at this time. As with any deal, even the seemingly ultra un-encumbered ones, there are always things that can make it happen/not happen, so I can never say it is a "sure thing", but I can say that everyone is working very hard to make it happen.
Does 'evreryone' mean the AGCC and the DoJ?
09-27-2011 , 07:47 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Snooks
"Despite recent events, FTP remains committed to identifying a suitable investor and paying back its players in full.”
How about paying back with the money you stole, you ***** thiefes?
09-27-2011 , 07:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AntiHer0
Noah has seen the letter of intent himself if I'm not mistaken.
Diamond_Flush has seen it. Noah wants to see it but Diamond_Flush is refusing to show him. Word on the street is that Noah is threatening to fire Diamond_Flush as S:P journo and that their friendship is in real jeopardy

Spoiler:
#justarumordontforget


Quote:
Originally Posted by Gunner171
Adam, any additional information? I also understand you can't give away your source, but is he a high profile player/someone involved in the negotiations/other? No offence but it's really lame to twitter huge news and then make nothing but a lame joke about it a couple hours later when people get all excited and want new info.
Can't really expect him to divulge this info. He says it's a reputable source that he believes we would also trust. Good enough for me!
09-27-2011 , 08:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by exoendo
I kinda of what to play the guessing game on adam's source now O_O

he says it's someone that not only he, but nvg would find reputable.

That knocks out a lot of people from FTP. He certainly isn't trusting howard/chris/.

Maaaaybe durrrr. But doubtful.

and yet, it still has to be someone close to the inner workings of this deal, and someone that would be in somewhat regular correspondance with adam. (i.e. not some random deep in the AGCC that's likely never heard of the pokercast).

So that leaves.... who? O_O

p.s. if the deal were actually done why would it have to be a secret?
Johnny *uckin Chan
09-27-2011 , 08:23 AM
Whats the communities thoughts..........

I'm a reg poster...you can find me in the LHE forum on most days. A few months before BF (Jan?) I started moving my roll from Stars to Tilt....not the best move in hindsight. Because of this I am one of the folks with an uncleared deposit. $600 which I have left in my bank account in good faith. That $600 is sitting at $2100 in my FT account. Throughout this all I have simply assumed that my FT balance is $1500 since I owe them $600. But with all of the talk about the uncleared FT deposit balances, and the lack of integrity we now realize exists at FT......anyone think they try to claim the entire balance is forfeit since the deposit never cleared? That would be total bushleague if they pull a stunt like that.
09-27-2011 , 08:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dombax
You are completely out of the way with your plot suspicion : The "Full Tilt Poker to Full Tilt Players " petition is just an emergency plan .
We'll go ahead only if no investor will come to save the company and pay players bankroll , that we consider quite difficult , but we continue to hope .
For the rest , it seems you agree that turning credit in shares gives value to the company . And this , you can agree , would be better than nothing .
Dont you understand? Any internet petition is MEANINGLESS as they are NOT real people voting. They could easily be made up email addresses and as such have zero merit or credibility.

Your suggestion is pure fantasy and bares no relation with the real world but you are entitled to have a dream

After all if you take away the dreams people have then there is nothing worthwhile left ot live for.
09-27-2011 , 08:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LaserBeamTheCat
Hdemet, how do you feel about the chances of an investor coming in, buying the company, and paying all players their funds right away? Do you think there's still enough value in FTP for this to happen???
As you are no doubt aware I believe there is zero chance of an investor coming in and saving FTP under the current stipulation that all players must be able to get heri funds back straight away.

I think the only solution is to reopen to the RoW and have their funds available to them and for the US players and DoJ to wait for their money with most of that coming from existing shareholders. (And if not exactly this then somethign similar).

...and as you can see I am more than happy to repeat this again and again and again becasue everytime someone asks the question I shall give the same answer.

If you look at what is known it is easy to come to sane conclusions but for whatever reason many choose to ignore the obvious and believe something totally alien to what the evidence suggests.

If you go to an ATM and try and take out money and it says come back tomorrow then after a few days and weeks of the same it becomes obvious that the ATM doesnt contain any money.

FTP has no money to pay back players and all attempts to find investors have failed to date. That does not make the current investor more likely to invest under the same terms but less likely becasue as time has gone by FTP has spent more money on staff and other things like lawyers meaning that the price has actually gone up for any investor. It also means that there is less and less liklihood of players receiving all their money back.

Why people choose to hold alternate beliefs is beyond the realms of my comprehension but people are entitlted to believe what they want.
09-27-2011 , 08:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AntiHer0
+1

Also I just don't see what buying time can get them, other than the hell out of dodge if they want to avoid jailtime.

That aside, there seems to be too many supporting events that are surrounding this that make it seem at least somewhat believable. I don't think the AGCC would be stalling/taking this long with the hearing decision unless there was some proof of the investor claims. I also don't think Dwan would come out as their puppet any more and has learnt to be a little more skeptical of sources, so for him to come out and say its legitimate interest is something. Noah has seen the letter of intent himself if I'm not mistaken.

Putting all this together it seems very unlikely in my mind that this is some fabricated tale put out there by tilt. And thats something these days too...I think I'm not the only one that has become a hardened skeptic out of this year's events.
Of course the investor from France is VERY real but it doesnt mean that he will do a deal or at least not on terms everyone thinks he woill do them on which means depsotiing sufficient money to cover all world player funds.

We have heard other investors were close to completing previously and none of them came to fruition.

We will just have to wait and see what happens with this one but if history repeats itself we already know the outcome.

Maybe the next investor will come closer to signing...

Any takers on his nationality?

We have Europeans, Americans a British leabanese time waster and now a Frenchman.

How about an Aussie like Packer next?
09-27-2011 , 08:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hdemet
As you are no doubt aware I believe there is zero chance of an investor coming in and saving FTP under the current stipulation that all players must be able to get heri funds back straight away.

I think the only solution is to reopen to the RoW and have their funds available to them and for the US players and DoJ to wait for their money with most of that coming from existing shareholders. (And if not exactly this then somethign similar).

...and as you can see I am more than happy to repeat this again and again and again becasue everytime someone asks the question I shall give the same answer.

If you look at what is known it is easy to come to sane conclusions but for whatever reason many choose to ignore the obvious and believe something totally alien to what the evidence suggests.

If you go to an ATM and try and take out money and it says come back tomorrow then after a few days and weeks of the same it becomes obvious that the ATM doesnt contain any money.

FTP has no money to pay back players and all attempts to find investors have failed to date. That does not make the current investor more likely to invest under the same terms but less likely becasue as time has gone by FTP has spent more money on staff and other things like lawyers meaning that the price has actually gone up for any investor. It also means that there is less and less liklihood of players receiving all their money back.

Why people choose to hold alternate beliefs is beyond the realms of my comprehension but people are entitlted to believe what they want.
I understand your skepticism, but how do you explain the coverage in the French media (among other things)? Also, what do you think is the point in them spreading this rumor? What are they achieving?
09-27-2011 , 08:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Diamond_Flush
You are wrong.
IIRC Jeff I. told us back in August, after the period of exclusivity expired with the other investor, that there were still 3 potential investors in the wings. Like most people, I doubted this was true as well. I was wrong.

All I can say is that this current investor is real. I have personally seen the docs. I won't comment on the investor name or the terms at this time. As with any deal, even the seemingly ultra un-encumbered ones, there are always things that can make it happen/not happen, so I can never say it is a "sure thing", but I can say that everyone is working very hard to make it happen.
I have never ever said the investor from France was not real...just that I dont believe he will sign on the dotted line and the prospects of him signing have been overhyped.

Now if you could give me reasons why he is more likely to sign than others that would be a different story entirely.....

...and of course everyone is working hard to make it happen as they DESPERATELY NEED IT TO HAPPEN otherwise the story ends the way we expect it to end IN TEARS but wanting it to happen does not make it happen. (And they tried just as hard with the rpeviosu investors too and even misled them to try and trick some into a deal)
09-27-2011 , 08:47 AM
At the moment FTP as a company has liabilities of $300 million, $6 million in cash and a cash burn to run (PK employees e.t.c) and effectively zero income. Value in a sale where it can reopen sooner ( this is why I think AGCC licence continuation is being asked for) > opening later > in a liquidation asset auction.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hdemet
I honestly believe it is impossible for anyone to buy FTP under the condition of having to pay back all the player funds now
As you know I said this some time ago, people need to stop demanding 100% of their money NOW and compromise.

At this point no investor has been willing to invest whatever was previously demanded by other parties i.e. FTP, DOJ, AGCC players so everyone else has to compromise otherwise all parties get less.

I would like to think the DOJ would like FTP sold as there is more value to them than in an asset liquidation auction where it will be split up. It also negates any ROW claims and diversity complications in US Courts.

I kinda thought once we knew they needed investment (now we know the true scale required) Plan A was to sell off the ROW part and use the proceeds to go towards paying US players.

As I've said before an overdraft facility secured against new assets that covers maximum ROW player account balance should cover AGCC requirement for cash > player balances and reduces the cost to the investor. There will almost certainly be some cashing out initially until confidence returns and new owners changes are seen.

The point is they don't need 150 million in liquid cash to cover the player balances just the ability to pay out immediately if so required although unlikely. Then transition from this stop-gap measure into fully cash backed segregated trust account for players LDO.

Last edited by munkey; 09-27-2011 at 08:50 AM. Reason: trust not rust -rusty on spelling :)
09-27-2011 , 08:47 AM
FT, bring us some news...
09-27-2011 , 08:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by la6ki
I understand your skepticism, but how do you explain the coverage in the French media (among other things)? Also, what do you think is the point in them spreading this rumor? What are they achieving?
FTP"S recent investor negotiations tell me that I am right to be sceptical about a deal being done.

As for the benefits to FTP you will have to ask them or their lawyer but tis probably related to them trying to pressurize FTP into not revoking their licence.

It also buys FTP time to do whatever they want to do before being forced into administration through running out of money completely

I would guess by now shareholders are proping up the company with their own money rather than returning it to a player refund account or they are burning up money released from frozen accounts...who actually knows.

But whatever the case the longer this goes on the less money players will get back
09-27-2011 , 08:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by munkey
At the moment FTP as a company has liabilities of $300 million, $6 million in cash and a cash burn to run (PK employees e.t.c) and effectively zero income. Value in a sale where it can reopen sooner ( this is why I think AGCC licence continuation is being asked for) > opening later > in a liquidation asset auction.



As you know I said this some time ago, people need to stop demanding 100% of their money NOW and compromise.

At this point no investor has been willing to invest whatever was previously demanded by other parties i.e. FTP, DOJ, AGCC players so everyone else has to compromise otherwise all parties get less.

I would like to think the DOJ would like FTP sold as there is more value to them than in an asset liquidation auction where it will be split up. It also negates any ROW claims and diversity complications in US Courts.

I kinda thought once we knew they needed investment (now we know the true scale required) Plan A was to sell off the ROW part and use the proceeds to go towards paying US players.

As I've said before an overdraft facility secured against new assets that covers maximum ROW player account balance should cover AGCC requirement for cash > player balances and reduces the cost to the investor. There will almost certainly be some cashing out initially until confidence returns and new owners changes are seen.

The point is they don't need 150 million in liquid cash to cover the player balances just the ability to pay out immediately if so required although unlikely. Then transition from this stop-gap measure into fully cash backed segregated trust account for players LDO.
I rerally do not understand why everyone is so hell bent on sticking to a bunch of rigid rules for the salavation of FTP.

Negotiations are all about give and take and its blatantly obvious that the current demands are not acceptable to any investor and as such some flexibility has to be shown by all...and that includes the DoJ and AGCC and FTP management and shareholders.

Is that so hard for others to accept?
09-27-2011 , 09:01 AM
Would be nice to have some real news about something important today, rather than the "usual suspects" and the " spew", but we will have to take what we can get and deal with it. GL to all!
09-27-2011 , 09:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bene Gesserit
Would be nice to have some real news about something important today, rather than the "usual suspects" and the " spew", but we will have to take what we can get and deal with it. GL to all!
How to do you know they will give it today?

      
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