Quote:
Originally Posted by ntnBO
Yes. In a lock situation the proper wager is either $0 or the max that still guarantees victory. Hardly any contestant understands this, but I would expect poker players to.
Quote:
Originally Posted by captZEEbo
This is not true. When you're in a lock situation, you are playing with strictly your OWN money. Because of this, you have to factor in your life roll. Some of these contestants could easily have a $0 net worth before the start of the show. Let's say they're net worth just jumped from $0 to $30k, because they're going to FJ with $30k and a lock win. Let's also say they have the opportunity to bet $10k and still lock up a win. It'd be fairly reckless to bet $10k (1/3 of your net worth) on a question where your edge is ~53%. I also think it's reasonable to vary your bets based on your confidence in the category and net worth. Just making up some numbers with a small/medium sized net worth: if you have 55% confidence you can bet like $1k, if you have 65% confidence you can bet $5k, if you have 80% confidence you can bet $10k. Basically, it's reasonable to bet small with a small edge and up your bets with a large edge because of the Kelly criterion.
I also agree with captzeebo. If you have 80% confidence in the category, then you can/should wager 80% * (Maximum possible wager while still guaranteeing victory with an incorrect response).
Of course, it comes down to personal preference/risk appetite,because you are wagering money that is effectively in your pocket at this point. But many players just wager 0 or $100 or something, which I think is
TERRIBLE (assuming that they aren't actively making this choice because they hate the category)
Last edited by sam1chips; 04-15-2015 at 08:43 PM.