Quote:
Originally Posted by subfocused
Just to give an idea of his game theory. Going into Final Jeopardy tonight, he was in the lead with $20,700 to 2nd place's $18,600. She wagered $2,101, trying to win if Alex wagered nothing. He wagered $16,501. If he got it right, he would have $37,201...One more dollar than 2nd. She got it wrong and he got it right. In Jeopardy, 2nd place gets $2,000 and 3rd gets $1,000. Her optimal play is to bet it all. If he is playing GTO, she should know he will make it impossible for her to win if he gets it right. His Final Jeopardy GTO play is unexploitable.
Quote:
Originally Posted by subfocused
Since its a guessing game between $0 and all-in, I think she has to go all-in. If anyone can support another amount, I would like to know why. I'm not saying another amount could not be correct, but need an explanation vs. GTO.
Quote:
Originally Posted by doublejoker
It's easy to assume her bet. She is betting to pass him by $1, forcing alex to get it right. That being the case alex can bet much less and lock in a victory when both miss. In this scenario when they both miss she wins.
Quote:
Originally Posted by doublejoker
I posted the final jeopardy numbers on my Facebook. The consensus appears to be that the woman should bet exactly $14400.
Good gosh some of you guys have zero clue.
The leader has to wager enough to cover a double up from second. Don't even try to go any level deeper because way too ofter second place makes the idiot suicide wager by betting everything. Second place can't win unless the leader gets it wrong, so betting everything is asinine. Second therefore should wager an amount that keep him/her ahead of the leader should the leader miss, since it's known what the leader will wager. If third place is in the mix you have to take that into consideration as well.
The lady made a good wager, one that would give her the win should both miss. $14400 is a valid wager, it keeps her ahead by $1. However that should only be done if she is >50% to be correct on FJ based on the category. Otherwise she should wager what she did.