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First AI to beat multiplayer Poker game vs top pros (like chris furgeson, darren elias...) First AI to beat multiplayer Poker game vs top pros (like chris furgeson, darren elias...)

07-11-2019 , 06:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kaeru
I'd prefer if the lineup included the stars 25/50nl 6m regs and a bigger sample size.

This is all very depressing nevertheless
you can watch similiar experiments on stars quite frequently
First AI to beat multiplayer Poker game vs top pros (like chris furgeson, darren elias...) Quote
07-11-2019 , 06:55 PM
I wonder if the bot programmers would have any helpful insights wrt bot detection etc
First AI to beat multiplayer Poker game vs top pros (like chris furgeson, darren elias...) Quote
07-11-2019 , 06:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by H0RUS
O/U the # of years it will be until online poker is about who has the most advanced bot?

Ill say 15 years
Two or three.
First AI to beat multiplayer Poker game vs top pros (like chris furgeson, darren elias...) Quote
07-11-2019 , 07:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by H0RUS
O/U the # of years it will be until online poker is about who has the most advanced bot?

Ill say 15 years
-3
First AI to beat multiplayer Poker game vs top pros (like chris furgeson, darren elias...) Quote
07-11-2019 , 08:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by H0RUS
O/U the # of years it will be until online poker is about who has the most advanced bot?

Ill say 15 years
My guess for a while has been that online poker will be a rake-free "casino" game in the future, i.e. you can choose to play basically any cash game variant, any time, any stakes, but against a near-GTO house bot(s).

No need to market towards recreational players and house can take against any caliber of player in the world.

GG.
First AI to beat multiplayer Poker game vs top pros (like chris furgeson, darren elias...) Quote
07-11-2019 , 08:10 PM
some 2p2 hero needs to convert HHs in the sciencemag link (data section) for easier viewing this formatting is terrible for reading
First AI to beat multiplayer Poker game vs top pros (like chris furgeson, darren elias...) Quote
07-11-2019 , 08:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChicagoJoey
How did Ferguson end up playing a 6max cash game bot for a project like this in 2019?





Looks like Linus was in the mix for this as well. He almost broke even playing vs 5 of the bots
only darren elias and chris ferguson played vs 5 of the bots. majority of the players took part in the 1AI 5human section, and the 1 bot vs 5 human winrate was larger than the 5 bot 1 human lossrate

joey plz put it out there that we need these HHs converted for easier viewing

EDIT: whats the most popular free online HH viewer? i'll pay someone on fiver to do this

Last edited by hERESY; 07-11-2019 at 08:27 PM.
First AI to beat multiplayer Poker game vs top pros (like chris furgeson, darren elias...) Quote
07-11-2019 , 08:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by lovehatepoker
I think these details are whats scariest about this development.
The cloud has already been used a long time to solve the GTO of NLH (and PLO) in 6-max. The low cost is new info for me.

We all have the GTO software of NLH but it takes too much time to compute real time. The real-time advisors are faster (using memory or/and simple calculations, I suppose). This as so is not new really (I don't know how they work). Preflop as cloud and then one could use simple math only for the advisor that only has the difficulty of considering the other player(s) ranges. A real-time advisor does this faster.

"128 GB of memory [RAM, I suppose]. On average, Pluribus plays twice as fast as typical human pros: 20 seconds per hand."

Only some players have that much RAM; most have from 2 to 16 GB. 180 hands per hour. This strong play as so needs more than what players have. but is easily reachable.

It only broke even vs. the best human play. It is not too much an issue but when considering the rake.

The 6-max bots I have played against before have a bad understanding of the situations and leak a lot of money by bluffing stacks and calling stacks in many situations where a human would do better, and as so are major losers. They additionally don't adjust, making it easy for a human. These superior human skills are not available for mere learning-bots. The GTO bots are unbeatable but the only way to lose to them is by making mistakes.
First AI to beat multiplayer Poker game vs top pros (like chris furgeson, darren elias...) Quote
07-11-2019 , 08:32 PM
Quote:
In one game against five human players, Pluribus was dealt an ace of clubs and a two of clubs, not a great hand. It started by raising $250, a standard move. Two humans called, the other two folded, for a total pot size of $800. Three community cards, a jack of spades, a 5 of diamonds, and a king of clubs, were dealt. (In Texas Hold ’em, players share a set of cards.) One of the humans checked. Pluribus bluffed and bet $800. Another player folded, while the other called.

The next card was a three of hearts, which killed the bot’s chances of getting a flush. It still had a slim chance at a straight if it got lucky with the final card. It chose to bluff with a $2,400 bet, and the last standing human, Linus Loeliger, called. The final community card was an eight of spades. The AI’s ace was most likely a losing hand, but it went all in, betting all its chips, worth $6,550. Mr. Loeliger folded. He had a ten of diamonds and a king of diamonds, a strong hand. He would have won.

Mr. Loeliger could not be reached for comment.
ffs i wanted to hear his opinion
First AI to beat multiplayer Poker game vs top pros (like chris furgeson, darren elias...) Quote
07-11-2019 , 09:12 PM
Dream machines for live games coming to mobile phones near you soon
First AI to beat multiplayer Poker game vs top pros (like chris furgeson, darren elias...) Quote
07-11-2019 , 09:14 PM
So it was 10k hands divided up between the 12 players. and they used an equation that can only figure their bots win rate and is not applicable for human play. it doesnt say how many hands were played by each player. it doesnt sound like its enough info to determine if it would be a winner in 25/50 on stars . how can the equation determine a bots win rate and not a human. so say it beats linus for .5bb over 2k hands that doesnt mean anything really. and 2bb/100 winrate against 1h 5 bots with chris ferguson doesnt sound very high at all really. i wonder what linus or any of the top 6m guys think.
First AI to beat multiplayer Poker game vs top pros (like chris furgeson, darren elias...) Quote
07-11-2019 , 09:38 PM
Ok, but how would it do vs Durrrr?
First AI to beat multiplayer Poker game vs top pros (like chris furgeson, darren elias...) Quote
07-11-2019 , 09:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fishfood69er
So it was 10k hands divided up between the 12 players. and they used an equation that can only figure their bots win rate and is not applicable for human play. it doesnt say how many hands were played by each player. it doesnt sound like its enough info to determine if it would be a winner in 25/50 on stars . how can the equation determine a bots win rate and not a human. so say it beats linus for .5bb over 2k hands that doesnt mean anything really. and 2bb/100 winrate against 1h 5 bots with chris ferguson doesnt sound very high at all really. i wonder what linus or any of the top 6m guys think.
they used a variance reduction technique called AIVAT (https://arxiv.org/pdf/1612.06915.pdf) which supposedly allows them to reduce std deviation by factor of 3 and use ten times less data to achieve the same statistically significant conclusion
First AI to beat multiplayer Poker game vs top pros (like chris furgeson, darren elias...) Quote
07-11-2019 , 09:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by RyanWCollins
ffs i wanted to hear his opinion
Lmfao was the point of that to flex on how the bot “owned” Linus?
First AI to beat multiplayer Poker game vs top pros (like chris furgeson, darren elias...) Quote
07-11-2019 , 10:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hERESY
some 2p2 hero needs to convert HHs in the sciencemag link (data section) for easier viewing this formatting is terrible for reading
+1
First AI to beat multiplayer Poker game vs top pros (like chris furgeson, darren elias...) Quote
07-11-2019 , 10:23 PM
Ferguson has a PhD in AI, so is probably friendly with the AI researchers.
First AI to beat multiplayer Poker game vs top pros (like chris furgeson, darren elias...) Quote
07-11-2019 , 11:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by onehandfold
https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribu...-player-poker/

Video showing hand samples is fun
Wow, pretty sick thin-value river x/r with QJ in the first hand.

Second hand seems like a questionable hero call with A7, though. Seems like a good bluff from the human who should have a lot of Tx +. Then again what do I know? I'm not beating Linus for 0.5bb/100.
First AI to beat multiplayer Poker game vs top pros (like chris furgeson, darren elias...) Quote
07-11-2019 , 11:35 PM
A7 call is standard, the peel with AJo pre was lol_terrible though

the QJ hand was nice and quite unusual

they did cherry pick hands that made pluribus look good though, which is kinda dumb, explanations below were obviously made by someone who doesn't play poker much at all
First AI to beat multiplayer Poker game vs top pros (like chris furgeson, darren elias...) Quote
07-12-2019 , 01:47 AM
spent some time going through the hands manually (looking for big pots which pluribus was involved in) and found a few (below), but it was exhausting... also the stacks for each game change throughout the game, but stack sizes aren't listed in each bit of data, so it's tough, but i have a friend who says he can reorganize the data so check back here for an update. hoping someone beats me to it though, seems tough

sample

Quote:
MrWhite:fold
Gogo:raise 200 (6s7s)
Budd:fold
Eddie:call (3h3s)
Bill:call (4c4s)
Pluribus:call (7dTd)

flop: 5hTs8h

Bill:check
Pluribus:check
Gogo:check
Eddie:check

Turn: Tc

Bill:check
Pluribus:check
Gogo:bet 700
Eddie:fold
Bill:fold
Pluribus:raise 1600
Gogo:raise 3550
Pluribus:raise 7300
Gogo:fold
Quote:
Pluribus:raise 200 (As8s)
MrWhite:fold
Gogo:fold
Budd:call 200 (5h5d)
Eddie:fold
Bill:call (Tc9c)

Flop: 3h7s5c

Bill:check
Pluribus:bet 850
Budd:call
Bill:fold

Turn: Qs

Pluribus:check
Budd:bet 1825
Pluribus:raise 3775
Budd:call

River: 6c

Pluribus: all in (5425 eff, covers)
Budd: call
First AI to beat multiplayer Poker game vs top pros (like chris furgeson, darren elias...) Quote
07-12-2019 , 02:47 AM
odd, the facebook article (https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribu...-player-poker/) says there were 3 pros who played 1 human v 5 AI (linus, elias, ferguson) and the sciencemag article says only 2, no linus
First AI to beat multiplayer Poker game vs top pros (like chris furgeson, darren elias...) Quote
07-12-2019 , 03:39 AM
So it beat Linus. gg poker
First AI to beat multiplayer Poker game vs top pros (like chris furgeson, darren elias...) Quote
07-12-2019 , 03:59 AM
Please post more hands, they are very interesting.

Would be way more fun if there was actual strong online 6max cash game regs only. Majority of guys are either hu regs or mtt grinders lol..Would be priceless to see russians finest, zaruba vs this bot.
First AI to beat multiplayer Poker game vs top pros (like chris furgeson, darren elias...) Quote
07-12-2019 , 04:25 AM
game over for real money online poker as we know it.
might as well transition over to play money and play against the aussies before stars makes a announcement that you will now have to play against 1-8 house bots that play GTO in any format. People will too. maybe stars might be nice and award prices to the players that play the best against the bots. turn poker into a total skill game. actually nah they won't work either since everyone will have a bot. Game over.

Last edited by R3M0T3; 07-12-2019 at 04:31 AM.
First AI to beat multiplayer Poker game vs top pros (like chris furgeson, darren elias...) Quote
07-12-2019 , 04:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HUMBLE.
Lol I read this page, watched the videos etc. I have no doubt that they created a dream machine bot but the stuff thats being stated in the first video is kinda funny.

"This is a complex hand because 4 players remain in it, Most professionals still have trouble in these situations".

Bot then goes all in for a big overbet with a gutshot and flush draw on the flop. The video calls it a "massive bluff".

Quote:
also i wonder if this isnt as bad for online poker as it seems because if its not costly to run and it becomes open sourced someday maybe this will also create advances in bot detection for poker sites.
It's pretty terrible for online poker. Sites cannot enforce no bot rules no matter what they say. I think some top pros have had very close to optimal dream machines for several years now.

Quote:
also 10k hands isnt much , so run good is still a factor , wish the would have played more hands.
They had a way of making 10k hands significant apparently, I quote from the webpage https://ai.facebook.com/blog/pluribu...-player-poker/

Quote:
Although poker is a game of skill, there is an extremely large luck component as well. It is common for top professionals to lose money even over the course of 10,000 hands of poker simply because of bad luck. To reduce the role of luck, we used a version of the AIVAT variance reduction algorithm, which applies a baseline estimate of the value of each situation to reduce variance while still keeping the samples unbiased. For example, if the bot is dealt a really strong hand, AIVAT will subtract a baseline value from its winnings to counter the good luck. This adjustment allowed us to achieve statistically significant results with roughly 10x fewer hands than would normally be needed.
Not sure if I would have trusted this had I been a human opponent.
First AI to beat multiplayer Poker game vs top pros (like chris furgeson, darren elias...) Quote
07-12-2019 , 05:15 AM
one of the bot creator's accounts on another site, answering questions about the bot (https://news.ycombinator.com/threads?id=noambrown)

he's saying they want to make it as accessible to the AI dev community as possible, but aren't releasing the code because of the damage it could do to online poker

these guys that work on this bot are sitting on code which they could easily morph into bots and generate millions, but aren't leaking it so us peasants can grind for quarters and nickles for a while longer. i have a much more dim view of online poker after reading this

Last edited by hERESY; 07-12-2019 at 05:19 AM. Reason: it's over. gg.
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