so you are the chip leader, you make a play that is +EV in chips while putting a load of pressure on someone who might bust on the bubble (which was a ridiculous bubble) and you consider the play atrocious?

If you look at this as purely a push/fold icm spot then Fedor should be on 100% given it is a 5.6bi bubble.

In reality you need to make some adjustments mainly taking into account Ike's actual calling range and that Fedor is unlikely to be playing 100% push/fold for 20bb.

Still taking that into account shipping 35s vs Ike is almost certainly the best play. Keep grinding those high-stakes MTT, i'm sure you are crushing those FT icm spots.

This just isn't true because:

------------------------
It's amazing how angry NVG seems about the 35s hand. I guarantee some people here are more angry about the hand than Ike was/is.

It is not that I do not understand that it is a +EV-play, but how thin of a edge it is. Why would you expose yourself to such stupid unneccesary variance just because the shove makes you +0.13bb/100. Like how is it news that variance is a thing and that it basicly nullifies these kinds of thin edges, it's not like we are talking about a ****ing 6max hyper or your standard MTT. Fedor certainly has a bigger edge than that against both Ben and the other dude who I do not recognize, and still he decides to chose this razor thin spot facing the risk of doubling Ike up for a 2% chipstack increase. The marginal gain of 2% more chips is infinitely low, and the opposite scenario of having Ike to your left 45bb deep is as disastrous as it gets.

I'll say it clearly, it is a stupid ****ing shove and anyone who agrees with it being fine is equally ****ing stupid.

Is it even that thin. I had a look at some numbers. Against a calling range of ATs+, AJo, 99+ we break even when he folds 78% of the time and that has him folding 93% of the time.

Even against a super wide calling range of Ax, 44+, KQ, KTs+ we need him to fold 72% and he's folding 78% but I'm not sure Ike would call that wide on the bubble of a SHR.

Either way, the shove looks fine to me. Just unfortunate that he shoved the bottom of his range into the top 3% of Ike's range... and then got lucky.

+ I have a feeling that Fedor has a much better sense of Ike's calling range in that spot and the EV of said play than I do.

the play is fine.
It's just the fact Fedor runs like a goat in so many key spots.

obv Fedor is a very good player, just amazing how he runs

vs a 99+ AJo+, ATs+ calling range, for a 560k (5.6 buyin) bubble this range seems reasonable it is a 140bb/100 shove.

vs ike calling 66+ ATo+ A8s+ KQs. it is a 110bb/100 shove.

no

There are tons of situations where you can jam ~100% bvb at 20bb. When you are the deepstack and it's on the bubble, it's just such an easy jam. If I saw him do anything other than jam I would be assume it was fancy play syndrome. Your assessment that it's atrocious is itself atrocious.

FYP.

That shove is just printing.

Ironic that he (ChanY) even mentioned why it's printing:

I'd like to see the ranges for that number. You either made that number up or have no clue about how to make an EV calculation or both.

He's an obvious troll, just ignore him.

I mean is any reg actually not at least a little bit salty/jealous of Fedor at this point. Even if he is somehow streets ahead of everyone else in the world at NLH MTTs (which I doubt, given the caliber of some of the guys in the fields) he's probably still like 500-1k buy ins above EV at this point at the absolute highest stakes possible, with apparently 100% of himself since mid summer.

It's madness. $24 Mega, just gone from the poker economy in a year. I wonder how many individual people's bankrolls are now part of Fedors never ending bank balance.

Some people are going to be 500 - 1k buy-ins above EV, some people are going to be 500 - 1k buy-ins below EV.

Anyone who is worthy of calling himself a reg understands that and (albeit maybe a little jealous) moves on.

If this is true.. How anyone plays tournament poker professionally is truly beyond me

Fedor run the best ever seen at a final table but he still put on a masterclass of LAG poker throughout that tournament

Yeah I'm sure the likes of fish, ike, otb, sauce, thuritz, trueteller etc. were all really outplayed by Fedor's GOAT LAG poker.

/s

I'm actually impressed by the amount of stupid idiots that come here to be stupid ****ing morons with all kinds of logic deattached just because Fedor did a punt which they have to justify. Ik that my credibility is the nut low since I come across as severely mentally impaired, but what the **** is going on is everyone really that stupid?

We have two scenarios, scenario I which happens 91% of the time Fedor picks up 2% chips and takes 5% of Ikes stack. Not really much going on.

Then we have scenario II, which happens 9% of the time - Fedor loses a quarter of his stack to arguably the best ****ing poker player in the world which just happens to be on his left and is by far his toughest remaining opponent which before this is chained to a shallow stack which he can not do very much with. The stack distributions before this disaster were optimal with Fedor having the CL and being able to exploit the **** out of ben and salfshb, and now it is a ****ing mess.




fishes

this punt of a shove is actually printing Ike money since he gets to play 100% correctly against a face up range.



edit: the %ages are a bit off, they should actually be a bit higher for how often Ike will double up I just noticed.

ok smart guy now use the 5.6x mincash payout structure there is no way that shove isn't printing

Would be very embarassing if I've missed some box to tick, but it is on ICM with the payouts plugged in and I gave Fedor a range of the low PPs all bad broadways and some suited connectors.

ok, I get it. You're a fan boy. Sorry that your dreams were crushed .

no

It's fine man, let the people have their heroes. It's a good thing, really.

Have no idea what you are doing here

But the real ICM results in this spot with 0 adjustments

https://gyazo.com/a53c4bb10a7505c0496cbaee4b05fe34