Fedor Holz picks & bets for the WSOP Main Event - Page 2 - Poker News

For the field size, I prefer to focus on the odds pricing. I can't justify paying 4:1 for a player. They would need a 400% ROI to break even as an example.

300%. A breakeven player with 0% ROI is worth 1.0. 100% ROI goes for 2.0, and so on.

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06-29-2018 , 03:49 PM

#27

smoothcriminal99

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 1,563

I think Maria ho is one of the best picks for her markup.... I like the picks but all the mus are really high even for an event like this.

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06-29-2018 , 04:03 PM

#28

Veron

adept

Join Date: Apr 2006 Posts: 768

Quote:

Originally Posted by ouinosino

there must be tons of suckers to justify such prices

There's ~5000 suckers playing an event with a fantastic structure and the prices reflect that.

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06-29-2018 , 04:23 PM

#29

Soepgroente

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 4,083

Quote:

Originally Posted by shaniac

What am I missing with the Maria Ho hate?

She's closer to phil hellmuth than an online guy in playstyle. Not necessarily fundamentally sound, but likely has a higher ROI in the wsop main than many regs that beat the big109.

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06-29-2018 , 04:58 PM

#30

auralex14

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 2,922

i wonder if it'd ever be possible for people to buy/sell their pieces as the tourney is being played out. For instance, say you bought Matos at 4.4, he makes it to Day 5 with a huge stack, you could then sell your share for 8.2 or something and Pokershares could take a commission from the trade.

My guess is that the market would never be large enough but it's still an intriguing idea. To me at least.

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06-29-2018 , 05:09 PM

#31

freedom 35

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 568

Quote:

Originally Posted by auralex14

This exists on many sports betting sites but almost always at a suckers price. Best to see it through

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06-29-2018 , 05:14 PM

#32

tarheels2222

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 12,257

Pretty sure Bparis is skipping the main this year. He has a second kid on the way.

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06-29-2018 , 05:42 PM

#33

auralex14

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 2,922

Quote:

Originally Posted by freedom 35

This exists on many sports betting sites but almost always at a suckers price. Best to see it through

Cool, didn't know that. Makes sense though, if you did take Matos at 4.4 you did so on a flier that he'd have a legit shot at a huge payday(and you by proxy). Which means a seller would only be willing to do so at the sucker's price.

Plus what kind of pussy hedges

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06-29-2018 , 05:58 PM

#34

freedom 35

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2017 Posts: 568

Quote:

Originally Posted by auralex14

Ya as an example on many sites the second you bought him at 4.4 the buy-back price would be something like 4.2 (or worse) despite the event having not yet started.

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06-29-2018 , 06:18 PM

#35

Kelvis

banned

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 8,737

I wouldn't pay 4.3 for anyone even if they could somehow see right through the cards. What kind of world do these people live in?

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06-29-2018 , 06:31 PM

#36

NYC_Jon

adept

Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 779

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kelvis

I wouldn't pay 4.3 for anyone even if they could somehow see right through the cards. What kind of world do these people live in?

If someone has more than 2 brain cells and can see through the cards, 10x MU is a steal.

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06-29-2018 , 07:55 PM

#37

luckyrobbie7

enthusiast

Join Date: May 2017 Posts: 55

Quote:

Originally Posted by SrslySirius

300%. A breakeven player with 0% ROI is worth 1.0. 100% ROI goes for 2.0, and so on.

Thanks for the correction!

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06-29-2018 , 11:30 PM

#38

TreadLightly

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2013 Posts: 3,712

I feel the guys like jamie gold and kevin hart being sold at 1.0 or lower has a much better ROI even if they are slightly losing somehow in the field since a min cash isn't that rare, vs paying over 4.0 for a all star player who you have to pray runs very deep to even break even in a massive field

Pokershares is going to make a KILLING off people betting on the main lol

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06-30-2018 , 02:55 AM

#39

Tommy_Tomich969

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 1,994

Quote:

Originally Posted by tarheels2222

Pretty sure Bparis is skipping the main this year. He has a second kid on the way.

His live record compared to online isn't that great either. (for torneys anyway).

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06-30-2018 , 02:57 AM

#40

Tommy_Tomich969

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 1,994

Quote:

Originally Posted by MilkMan

It's hard to think of any other competitive activity that gets a reasonable amount of media coverage where the "best in the world" are a less impressive bunch of people than MTT poker.

World Hotdog Eating Competition?

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06-30-2018 , 03:18 AM

#41

Lemon93PCTSure

adept

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 1,102

Are you seriois Tommy? Those guys are some serious athletes where the best wins usually and the top ones are full time pros
Check the Asian heritage YouTube kid to see what I mean

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06-30-2018 , 03:25 AM

#42

MilkMan

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 2,169

Quote:

Originally Posted by PeteBlow

Darts.

Good call but even with darts you can be impressed by how amazingly good they are at the game, tournament poker doesn't even have that.

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06-30-2018 , 03:27 AM

#43

MilkMan

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 2,169

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tommy_Tomich969

World Hotdog Eating Competition?

I think we've found our level.

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06-30-2018 , 04:07 AM

#44

youngrider

stranger

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 3

Fedor obviously an outstanding player no question and seems like a solid guy but he must have suffered some serious head trauma recently to justify 4.3. What would your expected ROI be on your investment???? Even if i lived until 150 and this event was played 1million times a year I couldn’t see myself becoming wealthy by this investment.

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06-30-2018 , 04:46 AM

#45

Tommy_Tomich969

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 1,994

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lemon93PCTSure

Are you seriois Tommy? Those guys are some serious athletes where the best wins usually and the top ones are full time pros
Check the Asian heritage YouTube kid to see what I mean

Sure but I'd hardly call them impressive human beings for being able to do that myself.

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06-30-2018 , 11:44 AM

#46

gamboneee

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 9,163

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lemon93PCTSure

Are you seriois Tommy? Those guys are some serious athletes where the best wins usually and the top ones are full time pros
Check the Asian heritage YouTube kid to see what I mean

matt stonie

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06-30-2018 , 01:00 PM

#47

patriots

adept

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 1,141

please quit the bedroom stares

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06-30-2018 , 01:14 PM

#48

prahsk87

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 524

Am I understanding markup correctly? If I wanted to buy 10% of someone's action in the main event at 4.0, it would cost me $4000?

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06-30-2018 , 01:22 PM

#49

chasepoker

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 1,644

I don't know which is the greater in this thread the sexism or the lack of knowledge about how much edge some people have in the main with a ridiculous slow structure.

Note i am not saying the 4x prices are worth buying.

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06-30-2018 , 01:31 PM

#50

Loctus

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 11,280

All of ya'll who think pokershares have overpriced players here are welcome to undercut their lines and steal all of their action

Which is exactly what pokershares does to people selling action of themselves, ya know

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