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Old 02-17-2019, 07:15 AM   #501
Airblaze
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Re: Epiphany77 starts a $50 to $10k BR challenge to show his methods are better than Doug Polk'

Quote:
Originally Posted by lolposting2016 View Post
I’d bet a decent amount he’s a loser @100z almost for sure losing a big clip at 200/500z
Well, we can't bet on it because he'll end up busy trying to overturn extradition of a dog from Uruguay or some ****. I have doubts about 500nl too but below that he's probably winning.
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Old 02-17-2019, 07:59 AM   #502
Halo_P1
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Re: Epiphany77 starts a $50 to $10k BR challenge to show his methods are better than Doug Polk'

Hey mrno, in fairness, Charlie is right that anyone speaking against him should put their money where their mouth is. I'll do a bet with you.

So you've given 5:1 that he beats 10nl eventually. How about we do 4:1 that he beats 25 nl zoom Pokerstars by the end of the year. Don't bother about escrow, I will send you the money, you've my word. My 20 bucks to your 80. No dick swinging money, just enough for a fun sweat. I did say I doubted him so I at least should offer that Im not totally full of sh*t.

Caveats to this bet being completed:
- No bumhunting, Pokerstars zoom only.
- 25nl zoom to be beaten means that he needs to be rolled for 50nlz by the end of it. (I think 2k roll is reasonable).
- Any tournament wins that jump the roll he has to win the difference of at 50nlz. (e.g roll may be 2k but if 1500 of that was winning the hot 4.40, then he still has to win 1500 at 50nlz before you win the bet.)
- All winnings verifiable via twitch streaming. None of this 200nlz 'highlights' business, I could release a highlights video of me playing 5knl if I was rolled for it and look baller.

Last edited by Halo_P1; 02-17-2019 at 08:19 AM.
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Old 02-17-2019, 08:26 AM   #503
Simone9124
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Re: Epiphany77 starts a $50 to $10k BR challenge to show his methods are better than Doug Polk'

You guys seem to forget that he crushed up to nl5k in 2014. Even though I hate him, it's incorrect to assume that he only was a mtt godrunner. The game is changed in these years but I think that is safe to assume that he can still beat 100z, no?
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Old 02-17-2019, 09:29 AM   #504
tiltshove1
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Re: Epiphany77 starts a $50 to $10k BR challenge to show his methods are better than Doug Polk'

As a 200z reg, I'd be happy to take a bet that he can be a decent winner at this stake (of course if he takes this challenge seriously). I think you guys underestimate him just cause he seems to be so annoying as a person.
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Old 02-17-2019, 11:06 AM   #505
mirage01
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Re: Epiphany77 starts a $50 to $10k BR challenge to show his methods are better than Doug Polk'

they also underestimate variance. if u run bad you will get owned at 10nl no matter who you are.
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Old 02-17-2019, 11:21 AM   #506
Halo_P1
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Re: Epiphany77 starts a $50 to $10k BR challenge to show his methods are better than Doug Polk'

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Originally Posted by mirage01 View Post
they also underestimate variance. if u run bad you will get owned at 10nl no matter who you are.
Very possible. But some might say you also underestimate rake (or rather rake back). Beating a stake isn't just about having a win rate, its about having the motivation to grind out the volume. My theory is that Charlie overestimates the winrates possible at micros and will test resolve to go through the swings. Lower winrate = bigger swings. Bigger swings= testing Charlie's ego more. The more its tested, the more he is likely to discontinue it.

I would shudder that people think that I believe 25nlz is full of crushers. I do not. Anyone with a decent work ethic/ reasonable studying ability can beat it. But I do know micro stakes is going to test your sanity (see Doug Polks for further details). If your style is based on arbitrary reads, without baseline solid fundamentals, you are going to tilt more. This is why I'm offering the bet. I don't think his style of play can stand the test of volume. After all, the entire point of this BRC was to show his methods were better than Doug Polks.

Its very possible I can be wrong. But Im offering the sweat here.

Last edited by Halo_P1; 02-17-2019 at 11:33 AM.
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Old 02-17-2019, 11:50 AM   #507
Mayox
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Re: Epiphany77 starts a $50 to $10k BR challenge to show his methods are better than Doug Polk'

id bet 10bb is for sure possible at 25nl if youre smurfing
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Old 03-02-2019, 03:52 PM   #508
Halo_P1
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Re: Epiphany77 starts a $50 to $10k BR challenge to show his methods are better than Doug Polk'

Looks like its going behind a paywall to get all the advanced 10nl + strategy haha. Hopefully it won't be formatted/edited without any streams for learning purposes as that will sortve defeat the whole point of the process. Also I thought this was being delayed in the first place in order to set up his website and now he isn't having a website apparently and just using another one (Gripsed? I assume). Idk man.

Last edited by Halo_P1; 03-02-2019 at 03:59 PM.
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Old 03-02-2019, 08:19 PM   #509
letsg0
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Re: Epiphany77 starts a $50 to $10k BR challenge to show his methods are better than Doug Polk'

Quote:
Originally Posted by Halo_P1 View Post
After all, the entire point of this BRC was to show his methods were better than Doug Polks.
Are you inferring this or quoting Charlie? I don't recall him ever saying that.
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Old 03-02-2019, 08:32 PM   #510
mrno1324
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Re: Epiphany77 starts a $50 to $10k BR challenge to show his methods are better than Doug Polk'

Quote:
Originally Posted by Halo_P1 View Post
Also I thought this was being delayed in the first place in order to set up his website and now he isn't having a website apparently and just using another one (Gripsed? I assume). Idk man.
yeah this is pretty funny
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Old 03-03-2019, 07:48 PM   #511
Lemon93PCTSure
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Re: Epiphany77 starts a $50 to $10k BR challenge to show his methods are better than Doug Polk'

Quote:
Originally Posted by Halo_P1 View Post
Very possible. But some might say you also underestimate rake (or rather rake back). Beating a stake isn't just about having a win rate, its about having the motivation to grind out the volume. My theory is that Charlie overestimates the winrates possible at micros and will test resolve to go through the swings. Lower winrate = bigger swings. Bigger swings= testing Charlie's ego more. The more its tested, the more he is likely to discontinue it.

I would shudder that people think that I believe 25nlz is full of crushers. I do not. Anyone with a decent work ethic/ reasonable studying ability can beat it. But I do know micro stakes is going to test your sanity (see Doug Polks for further details). If your style is based on arbitrary reads, without baseline solid fundamentals, you are going to tilt more. This is why I'm offering the bet. I don't think his style of play can stand the test of volume. After all, the entire point of this BRC was to show his methods were better than Doug Polks.

Its very possible I can be wrong. But Im offering the sweat here.
Winrate has no impact on swings whatsoever
Standard Deviation does

Higher winrate decreases the probability of losing of any give sample but not how much you're deviating from the long term EV aka swings.

I'm gonna state two things
1) He clearly would complete the challenge with a high winrate, swings or not
2) GTO or Exploitive side aside, he's just a donk who hasn't done the math in terms of the volume and hours required. With winrate always cut by attentive streaming by what I estimate 33%+ by taking away attention.
3) Or he has, knew very well he was never gonna complete it and how much time it'd take
And just rode Doug Polk's publicity for exposure
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Old 03-05-2019, 03:17 PM   #512
Omg_Nat123
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Re: Epiphany77 starts a $50 to $10k BR challenge to show his methods are better than Doug Polk'

Polk had him marked as a "bad reg" not sure if this was before the disagreement.
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