Well, we can't bet on it because he'll end up busy trying to overturn extradition of a dog from Uruguay or some ****. I have doubts about 500nl too but below that he's probably winning.

Hey mrno, in fairness, Charlie is right that anyone speaking against him should put their money where their mouth is. I'll do a bet with you.

So you've given 5:1 that he beats 10nl eventually. How about we do 4:1 that he beats 25 nl zoom Pokerstars by the end of the year. Don't bother about escrow, I will send you the money, you've my word. My 20 bucks to your 80. No dick swinging money, just enough for a fun sweat. I did say I doubted him so I at least should offer that Im not totally full of sh*t.

Caveats to this bet being completed:
- No bumhunting, Pokerstars zoom only.
- 25nl zoom to be beaten means that he needs to be rolled for 50nlz by the end of it. (I think 2k roll is reasonable).
- Any tournament wins that jump the roll he has to win the difference of at 50nlz. (e.g roll may be 2k but if 1500 of that was winning the hot 4.40, then he still has to win 1500 at 50nlz before you win the bet.)
- All winnings verifiable via twitch streaming. None of this 200nlz 'highlights' business, I could release a highlights video of me playing 5knl if I was rolled for it and look baller.

You guys seem to forget that he crushed up to nl5k in 2014. Even though I hate him, it's incorrect to assume that he only was a mtt godrunner. The game is changed in these years but I think that is safe to assume that he can still beat 100z, no?

As a 200z reg, I'd be happy to take a bet that he can be a decent winner at this stake (of course if he takes this challenge seriously). I think you guys underestimate him just cause he seems to be so annoying as a person.

they also underestimate variance. if u run bad you will get owned at 10nl no matter who you are.

Very possible. But some might say you also underestimate rake (or rather rake back). Beating a stake isn't just about having a win rate, its about having the motivation to grind out the volume. My theory is that Charlie overestimates the winrates possible at micros and will test resolve to go through the swings. Lower winrate = bigger swings. Bigger swings= testing Charlie's ego more. The more its tested, the more he is likely to discontinue it.

I would shudder that people think that I believe 25nlz is full of crushers. I do not. Anyone with a decent work ethic/ reasonable studying ability can beat it. But I do know micro stakes is going to test your sanity (see Doug Polks for further details). If your style is based on arbitrary reads, without baseline solid fundamentals, you are going to tilt more. This is why I'm offering the bet. I don't think his style of play can stand the test of volume. After all, the entire point of this BRC was to show his methods were better than Doug Polks.

Its very possible I can be wrong. But Im offering the sweat here.

id bet 10bb is for sure possible at 25nl if youre smurfing

Looks like its going behind a paywall to get all the advanced 10nl + strategy haha. Hopefully it won't be formatted/edited without any streams for learning purposes as that will sortve defeat the whole point of the process. Also I thought this was being delayed in the first place in order to set up his website and now he isn't having a website apparently and just using another one (Gripsed? I assume). Idk man.

Are you inferring this or quoting Charlie? I don't recall him ever saying that.

yeah this is pretty funny

Winrate has no impact on swings whatsoever
Standard Deviation does

Higher winrate decreases the probability of losing of any give sample but not how much you're deviating from the long term EV aka swings.

I'm gonna state two things
1) He clearly would complete the challenge with a high winrate, swings or not
2) GTO or Exploitive side aside, he's just a donk who hasn't done the math in terms of the volume and hours required. With winrate always cut by attentive streaming by what I estimate 33%+ by taking away attention.
3) Or he has, knew very well he was never gonna complete it and how much time it'd take
And just rode Doug Polk's publicity for exposure

Polk had him marked as a "bad reg" not sure if this was before the disagreement.

Well, we don't have Doug Polk to kick around anymore, but here you are, kicking away. I am going to miss Doug Polk and yes miss him "taking" money from the likes of you.

I saw some, why, did you watch all of it?

So how exactly does standard deviation impact on swings? Lol

take a lap. tuck your shirt in . have some self respect. jesus.

He is a very nice talented young man Doug, I joined this forum for him, he rocks at poker and if he leaves it, that is his choice. I could be his mother and I respect whatever decisions he decides to do. Prayers and love for you Doug

I think a lot of people are biased and say he is losing at x stake cuz he is super annoying / unlikeable (unless you hate doug with all of your soul)... A lot of you seem to miss the fact that he actually was a 500z reg for a long time with very good results. He is just not some random guy who comes out of no where with no experience claiming he could crush it or whatever.

500z is un some ways softer nowadays than it used to be, winrates are way higher and reg:fish ratio is way better. I think he beats 500z, but not anything above it on stars.

Is the bankroll challenge still going on?

From what I gather, sort of, but for all intents and purposes, no. He isn't streaming on twitch regularly (claims problems with OBS software) but will post highlights of him grinding micro stakes. This is according to his twitter, so most of the challenge, from what I infer, is going to be done privately/offline/saved for website yada yada, with some uploads to youtube of snippets of it. So basically the answer is its not really a challenge anymore its just him posting 45 mins of him playing random micro stakes levels at sporadic intervals whilst continuing to be condescending to the majority of his audience. For a guy who claims his strategy is superior to GTO he didn't get very far lol.

Obviously looks like he is giving up although Doug Polk did have some time where he was not playing hardly at all.

The truth is though that DP gets a lot less credit than he should for completing the challenge. For one, the sheer achievement aspect of turning his $100 into $10k is impressive and proved how much of an edge he had (even though he was being crazy and trying to play HU on a super short bankroll early on).

Doing that in 2018, with all the talk of poker being dead is what gets me. He proved if you're good, you can still make it. That should have been talked about and promoted by other people in the poker community much more than it was.

^

And let's not forget these as well.

https://upswingpoker.com/doug-polk-one-drop-wsop-win/

https://www.pokernews.com/news/2017/...tube-28014.htm

embarrassing and laughable if this is really the case

It sucks I think charlie a nice guy/good intentions but this is very troll and annoying hha

Good lord