Quote:
Originally Posted by Two SHAE
28k hands sample is close to meaningless compared to the standard deviation for 3 really good players playing 3handed NL 100+bb deep. You can see that pretty easily with a variance calculator. Ever played with Trueteller??
AIEV is far from the only thing that matters as far as evaluating how he ran during that small sample.
I'm not opining on whether you are right or wrong, but can say definitively that your reasoning for arriving at that conclusion is laughable.
Maybe you are trolling.
Here are some numbers that seem realistic to me. Maybe someone who has played these games with these players recently can give a better estimate of std dev.
std dev is 117 not 200, like i said i wont go off variance sims because thats what u use when u have no info. Redline profits are for example far lower variance than blueline typically, as they often occur from a high frequency exploit like folding too much in a particular common spot to someone. and the profits/redline go straight down in that graph as soon as he started playing linuslove. my opinion which is 100% correct and not laughable is that from looking at otb in 3max he got rekt and variance was part of it, but a lot of it was skill. From a statistical point of view 28k hands is indeed nothing, but if you look closely at what happened in those games u can see who the mark is.
So the rankings were ok but a little out of date imo and you cant really put 2016 regs on the list, and leaving prot0 and limitless, and others out when they crushed 2017 is a mistake.