Douglas "WCGRider" Polk vs Ben "Sauce" Sulsky - High Stakes HUNL Challenge - Page 17 - Poker News

let me make it easy for you

A)
Let's say WCG has a true winrate of 20bb/100 vs sauce

If I gave you 5:1 on Sauce to win this thing, would you take it?

i could be wrong about the point you're trying to make but these numbers dont illustrate it: no some1 shouldn't take that.

Quote

09-15-2013 , 01:55 AM

#402

Extreme Ways

adept

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 883

With regards to A)

Quite a bit of difference btw 5:1 and 105%, which is the context of my comment.
If I argued for WCG being a nice favorite, it would not make sense to me to bet on Sauce to 105%. Bringing up 5:1 is just ridicilous in this match-up.
I got no clue on math, but from a gut instinct point of view it doesn't make sense to me at 105 if a person believes WCG is quite a bit better.
Just my opinion bro, bet all ya want, the more action the more interest and better.

Quote

09-15-2013 , 01:58 AM

#403

Zima421

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 18,973

Quote:

Originally Posted by Matt Probability

Want 1k on WCG at -105 or better.

Have refs, can escrow on Stars if needed for some reason.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Zima421

Betting this with Matt (waiting for vouch from aaron jones)

my 1k to his 1050. He has WCG, I have Sauce.

we are booked. LETS GOOOOOOOO SAUCE-BAUCE

Quote

09-15-2013 , 02:02 AM

#404

Extreme Ways

adept

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 883

Hehe

Quote

09-15-2013 , 02:08 AM

#405

Lego05

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 24,895

Quote:

Originally Posted by Syous

let me make it easy for you

A)
Let's say WCG has a true winrate of 20bb/100 vs sauce

If I gave you 5:1 on Sauce to win this thing, would you take it?

B)

Sauce plays poker differently than other people. I'd love to see him win this.

Quote:

Originally Posted by TooCuriousso1

i could be wrong about the point you're trying to make but these numbers dont illustrate it: no some1 shouldn't take that.

Assuming a standard deviation of around 150, I would probably take it.

Quote

09-15-2013 , 02:14 AM

#406

Lego05

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 24,895

Well, they are starting tomorrow and I may not even check back on this thread, but just in case I guess:

I will take Sauce +120 for a few thousand. PM.

I will take Doug +120 for a few thousand. PM.

If anybody wants to take on both bets (for at least $500 each), I'll agree to lower the odds on each to +112.

Quote

09-15-2013 , 03:15 AM

#407

TooCuriousso1

Golden 2017

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 6,711

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lego05

Assuming a standard deviation of around 150, I would probably take it.

that would be a big mistake imo. and i think the stdev will likely be a fair bit higher (which would help you but even at 180 its still a rather large mistake). not sure if its my place to go all strat itt about how to get the numbers so ill just leave it at that, i guess.

but ill add that i think its 95% likely the edge is between -5 and +5 and probably 75% likely -3 and +3. big blinds*

Last edited by TooCuriousso1; 09-15-2013 at 03:21 AM.

Quote

09-15-2013 , 03:16 AM

#408

Aaron55

newbie

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 17

Quote:

Originally Posted by klink10k

want sauce +105 up to $40k

From his blog on Leggo:
Pretty excited for this, rooting for my good friend WCGrider to beat the god of poker known as sauce. I want some side action, betting on WCGrider's side. PM me offers, poker is exciting once again.

Quote

09-15-2013 , 03:20 AM

#409

klink10k

banned

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 11,721

money > friends

Quote

09-15-2013 , 05:20 AM

#410

WCGRider

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2007 Posts: 7,026

Quote:

Originally Posted by klink10k

money > friends

Quote

09-15-2013 , 05:53 AM

#411

Zima421

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 18,973

hahahahahaahaha

Quote

09-15-2013 , 06:13 AM

#412

cheet

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 2,498

Lolllll

Quote

09-15-2013 , 07:19 AM

#413

exec771

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 17,484

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lego05

If anybody wants to take on both bets (for at least $500 each), I'll agree to lower the odds on each to +112.

que?

Quote

09-15-2013 , 07:43 AM

#414

50mFreestyle

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 323

is it only about the 100K side bet, or does the winner also keep the won the chips?

Quote

09-15-2013 , 07:50 AM

#415

BrutalDelux3

journeyman

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 321

Looking for $5k on sauce at evens. PM me.

Quote

09-15-2013 , 07:54 AM

#416

Masq

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 15,008

Quote:

Originally Posted by 50mFreestyle

is it only about the 100K side bet, or does the winner also keep the won the chips?

I assume it's money won at table + $100k.

Quote

09-15-2013 , 07:56 AM

#417

superdivine

banned

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 263

Could punting and WCG not find a better table to play at than WCG vs sauce HU?

Quote

09-15-2013 , 08:04 AM

#418

50mFreestyle

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 323

Quote:

Originally Posted by Masq

I assume it's money won at table + $100k.

ok, me too, otherwise it wouldnt be called "side" bet, i think

Quote

09-15-2013 , 08:21 AM

#419

lqken

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2009 Posts: 491

so, when is it?

Quote

09-15-2013 , 08:44 AM

#420

CliffLee

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 3,005

^ Today at 5pm EPT.

Quote

09-15-2013 , 08:55 AM

#421

mement_mori

formerly youcanhaveitall

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 9,931

Will be busy playing so cant watch it but would really appreciate it if one of the people who are watching wouldn't mind recording and uploading it.

Quote

09-15-2013 , 08:57 AM

#422

billybeartku

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 5,830

Quote:

Originally Posted by mement_mori

Will be busy playing so cant watch it but would really appreciate it if one of the people who are watching wouldn't mind recording and uploading it.

Quote

09-15-2013 , 09:06 AM

#423

ReversedAngleShot

adept

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 994

Quote:

Originally Posted by mement_mori

Will be busy playing so cant watch it but would really appreciate it if one of the people who are watching wouldn't mind recording and uploading it.

Quote

09-15-2013 , 09:31 AM

#424

Syous

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 6,907

Quote

09-15-2013 , 09:32 AM

#425

CRABFISH

journeyman

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 290

want $100 on WCG at evens. PM me.

Quote

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