got any sort of grasp on the variance in hunl?

It's still only 20 buyins which is not a huge amount in an agro HU match, although given its only 10k more hands is gonna be really tough to come back from, wondering what odds i could get on sauce winning now?

He keeps saying his money is in a fixed deposit. I think this would be similar to a certificate of deposit ... so he is getting a higher interest rate, but he can't necessarily withdraw the money until a certain time period elapses (or if he deos perhaps there is a penalty). From what I gather from his posts, I think that is the situation.

I think he is then saying whoever he bets against would escrow the money with a third party and he would arange such that whatever institution he has the account at would be legally obligated to pay such amount of money to the third party rather than to him. That way his betting opponent's money is physically escrowed with the third party and the third party has the legal right to receive his money at a later date.

Personally, I think that even if there is a way for him to get the financial isntitution to do this, the logistics, including drafting (although the financial institution may already have forms that could be used, though I'd recommend reviewing them) and arranging execution of the documents that would likely be necessary may not be worth it for a $12K bet, but I suppose it depends how large you think your edge is.

However, that said, given that the event has already started, I don't think there is enough time to really get all of these logistics completed and even if there, it would have to be a rush job.



*Overly Cautious Disclaimer: None of the above is legal advice and should not be construed as such.*

Yes, and 15k hands is statistically insignificant. But it hasn't stopped people from betting on it.

Say Rider has a 3.5bb/100 edge. If you assume SD of 90 and 15000 hands he wins the challenge two out of three times.

http://www.pokerolymp.com/articles/s...r#.UjoiEsbNXqe

Even the actual players in the challenge could be completely wrong about whether one is getting outplayed or just running poorly (and in this case in which ratio, since it's obvious Sauce is at least running poorly).

There are so many ways of running above/below expectation and the human mind is naturally so selective in what it remembers that I doubt anyone can accurately keep track of all the factors necessary to make such an assessment.

Without proper specific training, that is; but I doubt any poker player has exhaustively studied all of the aspects of variance, come up with a weighing algorithm and trained himself to keep track of all those factors and compute them as he's playing...

90 is waaaaay too low for HU, it's probably more like 130+ for those guys, but even then he would be over 60% to win.

Also, whoever has the edge here probably has more than a 3.5bb/100 edge, so 15k hands isn't statistically insignificant at all.

I'd be shocked if their std dev is below 150

Its not

i'll take the 10:1 bet but why would not just post on ur alt account?

Imo sauce is in a vicious cycle atm. He's running extremely badly, resulting in him playing less optimally, which is making Rider have a definite edge and it's just neverending atm. I think Sauce's runbad is legitimately in the top 10% of worst possible runs he can have, really hope this can turn around at least a bit.

Rooting for a close match as an impartial observer, hope sauce turns it around and crushes a 200k+ sesh next time, gogogo !

Rider sounds sooo douchey in that interview, please empty that mans account sauce

which parts make him sound "douchey" exactly?

I'm wondering what high stakes cash guys make of Sauce winning a ton without sd but losing anyways. Is it just run bad or can someone really win a lot losing that much without sd?

Can someone give the current score and keep doing it in the thread.

http://www.fulltiltpoker.com/blog/wc...ads-challenge/

I don't even bother looking at won with or without showdown these days, vs some people it is correct to win without and vs some it is correct to lose. Obv sauce has run very bad but don't think the fact he wins w/o showdown means much.

+1

Imo losing at showdown is more likely an indication of running bad than at nsd. I'd be more worried about losing at nsd than showdown over a large sample, but it's nothing definitive and certainly vs some opponents it is correct to lose at nsd.

20 buy-ins in 11k+ hands. Certainly more than possible. And remember, this is Sauce, the dude who has had several million dollar swings in the space of a few hours against Isildur, albeit in bigger and more high variance PLO games. He certainly has the game and the toughness to claw his way back into this. He just needs to get going and run good. I hope it balances up close to even towards the last 5k hands or so and then we can see a real battle, hopefully with no one running too good. As it stands the variance is kind of killing the matchup.

I havent been following the contest, but how do you know for certain he is playing sub-optimally? Hes world class and I would imagine has more than enough experience, talent and resolve to remain relatively unaffected by variance.

.

yea. for instance, i played an almost identical strategy against jungleman for around 3k hands last week, ran very well, and lost non sd.

Thanks for the help

The inference by the OP is that the variance of the match is making a noticeable difference to the way Sauce plays. This may be the case, if so Im curious how he knows this. HH's, inside info or uninformed Ad-hoc opinion?

Sauce may be one of the rare few that plays better under adversity for all I, or anyone else knows