Doug Polk's Challenge to Daniel Negreanu: Heads-Up NLHE Showdown (25k Hands) - Page 201 - Poker News

I agree with Mason, whilst it might be obvious to serious players that Daniel is a dog in this. It only takes a short while browsing your average Facebook discussion, local card room chat to realize the wider poker world isn't aware of this. Daniels marketability comes from him being one of the best players in the world, whether its actually true or not. If the wider audience have that belief that he is a world class player removed his Value to any business disappears or at least is massively reduced.

Hi flipya:

The only thing that I would add to this is that it can take a long time to build a positive reputation, but once that positive reputation exists, it can be lost quickly.

Best wishes,
Mason

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11-28-2020 , 05:38 PM

#5002

golfbum983

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 1,943

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mason Malmuth

Ppl didn’t seem to care about his shilling for stars (more rake is better, saying SNE was justified)

I think his base is loyal and likes his quirky personality and how’s he’s honest with his wins and loses and making daily vlogs etc

I highly doubt any of his loyal fans think he’s the best player in the world....

Also, anyone who’s been Following poker the last 5-10 years know Polk is one of the best HUNL players ever, a format DN has never even played. I’m sure almost everyone is giving him a pass on this challenge and I highly doubt it will have much of any impact of future marketing. Bud like you say, time will tell

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11-28-2020 , 05:40 PM

#5003

Airblaze

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 393

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mason Malmuth

But Daniel has lots of excuse outs in this conversation. He won the live format which matters to the casual player, Doug is a solver monkey, Daniel has true undefined poker prowess, Online is rigged and biggest one of all that Daniel is pushing: Variance.

A reputation of twenty plus years gains someone a very defiant, partisan and vocal fan base.

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11-28-2020 , 05:48 PM

#5004

dhubermex

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 1,672

Session #12 of the Doug Polk vs. Daniel Negreanu High Stakes Feud match begins in less than an hour.

Going into today's session, Doug leads by $264,019 after 5,067 hands.

https://upswingpoker.com/hu4grudge/
---

Round #12 Twitch Live Stream: https://www.twitch.tv/upswingpoker (currently streaming Round #11 replay)
---

Round #12 Live Cast - Doug Polk Poker YT channel (feat. Mike Brady, Jamie Kerstetter, Nick Schulman)

---

Round #12 Live Cast - GG Poker YT channel (feat. Jeff Platt, Amanda Negreanu, Brent Hanks)

---

Round #12 Live Cast - joeingram1 YT channel (feat. Joey Ingram, Landon Tice)

_____

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11-28-2020 , 05:57 PM

#5005

Howard Treesong

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 14,681

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mason Malmuth

Hi guy:

I don't agree. If Negreanu gets crushed, he'll become damaged goods. And while he still may have a lot of money, his image will be badly tarnished, and I believe the interest in him will drop way off.

Those of you out there who think that all publicity is good should think again, Of course, Negreanu is a long way from being crushed. So, we'll see what happens.

Best wishes,

Mason

Mason,

cf. Phil Hellmuth, who has any number of clips/vids etc that paint him in a terrible light -- insulting, immature, out of control.

Ted Bundy is an extreme example, but as I recall it, he got married while he was in prison and there was zero doubt he was a serial killer.

I'm certain there are edge cases where you are right (like the central park Karen) but for the most part, the slogan about all publicity being good publicity is right.

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11-28-2020 , 05:58 PM

#5006

Howard Treesong

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2004 Posts: 14,681

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mason Malmuth

Hi Sizzler:

The following is from our history book, of which I'm a co-author, and it should be helpful to understand why the odds will differ depending on the number of hands played. Also, the standard deviation is the square root of the variance.

There’s also one other property of the standard deviation we want to mention. It’s the idea that the standard deviation is proportional to the square root of the number of events that occur while the expectation is proportional to the number of events that occur.

Putting this in simpler language, when looking at a small number of events where the standard deviation is large per each event relative to the expectation, then expect the standard deviation to dominate your results. However, over time, after enough events have occurred, since the standard deviation is proportional to the square root of the number of events and the expectation is proportional to the number of events, the expectation should dominate your results.

And 25,000 hands should be a large enough sample meaning that the expectation should dominate.

Best wishes,

Mason

TY, Mason, for putting my thought in more formal -- and correct -- terms.

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11-28-2020 , 06:40 PM

#5007

deuceblocker

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2019 Posts: 3,383

Negreanu's value for endorsements is gradually going down regardless, unless he shows he is still a big tournament winner. If he wins or doesn't lose much, that should increase his value for endorsements. If he really gets crushed it might decrease his endorsement value. However, this match gives both of them huge publicity. The main downside for Negreanu is the obvious one that he is expected to lose a significant amount to Polk.

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11-28-2020 , 06:43 PM

#5008

prairiebreeze

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 4,681

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mason Malmuth

Hi Xeno:

This may be the case with you. But you're a knowledgeable poker player. For the large majority of players and potential players that the poker entities are trying to attract, and who have heard of Negreanu or see his picture in advertising, if they begin to hear he got crushed, things may not be quite the same any more.

But again, we're a long way from this happening.

We get it, you hate DNegs and you are pro-Doug. Got it. I think Doug has too many of his own warts to compel me to root for him, but if you're red with rage at Daniel, ok fine. YMMV.

But Xeno is on to something: Negs got destroyed in all but one (?) season of HSP, which is super popular with diehards and casuals. If he wins or loses 7 figures, it's not going to change any measurable sentiment among the community in either direction.

90% of the people in my live player pool don't know who Doug Polk is.

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11-28-2020 , 06:47 PM

#5009

SizzlerFTW

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 2,368

Quote:

Originally Posted by prairiebreeze

I remember watching the first two seasons of High Stakes Poker, and needing a friend (who was already watching Card Runners) to have to explain Negreanu wasn't just unlucky. He came across very well, and Gabe was favorable to him.

I didn't agree with my friend by the way.

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11-28-2020 , 06:48 PM

#5010

Xenoblade

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 4,090

I'm rooting for doug and it feels to me it's a stretch to say that it's going to look bad for dnegs if he loses, as isolated said, casual players won't care too much id dneg loses, and players who are more serious about the game will just think "well this was expected"

and I'm guessing a few of the hardcore dneg fans will just say that he got unlucky

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11-28-2020 , 07:04 PM

#5011

Habman

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 2,070

Earned media is worth something . . . I would love to know about the back-end deals if any.

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11-28-2020 , 07:27 PM

#5012

wtfsaywtf

banned

Join Date: Jul 2018 Posts: 138

Did it hurt Nick the Greek's image losing to Johnny Moss heads up? No. Did it hurt Tom Dwan's image to lose to Isildur1? No.

Negreanu losing this match, even getting crushed, is not going to hurt his image at all. In fact I think just taking the challenge bolsters his image in his willingness to battle at the highest stakes.

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11-28-2020 , 07:30 PM

#5013

votedstraw

enthusiast

Join Date: Nov 2020 Posts: 61

Daniel said comparing him to Doug would be like comparing Michael Jordan to some no name and he meant it so yes, Doug winning would mean something.

Daniel has to realise that he is not a world class or even a good player but a fun player who wouldn´t even beat micro stakes.

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11-28-2020 , 07:38 PM

#5014

GazzyB123

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 5,968

Quote

11-28-2020 , 07:39 PM

#5015

Wolfram

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 15,066

Doug putting on a clinic right now. Every other pot is shoved all-in on river, and Daniel folds. He probably thinks he's getting super unlucky not catching any cards to call the maniac.

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11-28-2020 , 07:40 PM

#5016

deuceblocker

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2019 Posts: 3,383

Doug seems to be up about $100K for the session now.

Quote

11-28-2020 , 07:41 PM

#5017

golfbum983

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 1,943

Quote:

Originally Posted by votedstraw

Yeh the guy with 42 mill in cashes who was doing ok in the superhigh rollers can’t beat the micros.....

He’s down 6 buy ins to the former #1 hu specialist, come on man...

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11-28-2020 , 07:43 PM

#5018

deuceblocker

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2019 Posts: 3,383

Quote:

Originally Posted by votedstraw

A fun player would get crushed a lot worse in 5K+ hands HU with Polk.

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11-28-2020 , 07:43 PM

#5019

SizzlerFTW

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 2,368

Daniel getting another spanking at the moment

Quote

11-28-2020 , 07:45 PM

#5020

SizzlerFTW

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2008 Posts: 2,368

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfbum983

Yeh the guy with 42 mill in cashes who was doing ok in the superhigh rollers can’t beat the micros.....

He’s down 6 buy ins to the former #1 hu specialist, come on man...

Hint: check Dougs alias

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11-28-2020 , 07:54 PM

#5021

Wolfram

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 15,066

oof, daniel slowplays broadway straight and allows doug to go runner-runner spades for 100k

tricky trappy ftw

Quote

11-28-2020 , 07:57 PM

#5022

votedstraw

enthusiast

Join Date: Nov 2020 Posts: 61

Quote:

Originally Posted by golfbum983

Yeh the guy with 42 mill in cashes who was doing ok in the superhigh rollers can’t beat the micros.....

He’s down 6 buy ins to the former #1 hu specialist, come on man...

Never ever does Daniel beat micros with the current rake - 100%.
I am not as sure right now, because this hu battle he might have improved significantly.
But the way he played wsop online this year, im 100% sure he would not be a winner in micro stakes.

Quote

11-28-2020 , 07:58 PM

#5023

dhubermex

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 1,672

The last 15 minutes of the Joey Ingram cast ranks among my favorite segments so far in the overall match.

The real time graphics are coming along nicely.