FOR THE LOVE OF GOD

WCG|RIDER VS SAUCE123 REMATCH

If doug really was the best HU player in the world at one time, man this would be a huge win for daniel

Danny discussed a related idea on his podcast. Terrence asked him if this was the biggest bet relative to his bankroll he's ever made, and Daniel said no -- that his series of HU matches at the Wynn was a much larger bet relative to his finances at the time. Trivia: Danny and I had played in a WSOP limit event and I made a quip at his expense. I FT'd the event and busted 9th, then walked over to the Wynn because I hadn't been there before. Danny and Barry were playing one of these matches HU 4-8K. Danny saw me on the rail and told me to sit down and chat for a while, which I did.

HI Spin:

You may be correct. Over the years I've met a number of people who were always willing to put their whole bankroll on the table no matter the size. As a result, unless they had income from other sources, they had to go broke when that unlucky streak hit.

And while I don't know for sure, my suspicion is that Negreanu would fall into this category, and that's part of the reason this match is even occurring. I also believe, and again this is just my opinion, that his revenue streams are probably not what they use to be.

Best wishes,
Mason

Several months ago, there was a big back in forth with Daniel on twitter about a very large tip he left for a food delivery person to his house. He basically said that he has enough money to last the rest of his life, so why not.

Just doing a few estimates of what his monthly might be, especially with a wife now, and less income than he used to have. He must easily have 15 to 20 million is my guess.

it doesn't say much if he doesn't reveal who those "players" are (live donks or Linus) or how much he's going to play

I’ve never really understood this apparent need of poker pokers to announce their retirement....and has a single one ever actually retired?

Off the top of my head Doug, Selbst, and Fedor have all ‘retired’ from poker with some grandiose statement. None quit playing.

Either play or don’t. Seems pretty narcissistic to make a speech about it.

Yeah Vanessa Selbst is pretty annoying.

I just find it really strange that Doug seems to have a number of people willing to battle him.
Its clear in this format he is a great player.
If DN was smart and had listened to Doug's post session interviews he would quit at 12.5K if he is down.
Is he really going to do anything (apart from luckbox) that Doug wont counter or adjust too?
I'm guessing DN is getting advice from people who could not beat Doug and he is obviously worse than that.

Maybe I'm just an advantage playing EV nit but I'm always looking to get my money in good in the right soft spots.
I can see why Doug is loving these challenges.
Currently at 13 BB/100
My prediction was 17 BB/100

Hi Mason, I think a lot of Tournament players are just not that good.
Plus the format does not lend itself to the huge edges of cash.
If we assume Doug is an average 10BB/100 against the field.
Even assuming one table with 100 hands an hour
(the recent 2 hour session had 2 tables over 2 hours and 416 hands)

That's an EV of $4000 an hour for one table.

There is no tournament player in the world that has an EV of $4000 an hour.

The huge variance can form an illusion that someone is good just based on survivorship bias. You could also compile a list of lottery winners!
Look at some of the really terrible players who have won the WSOP main event.

In tournaments weak players can be bluffed more often because they fear getting knocked out. In cash games, weak players they have no problem calling bluffs because they can just rebuy. Also cash games are almost always played much deeper stacked than tournaments.
Mathematical errors are often much greater and compounded.
IMHO the best players in the world are cash players.
If a tournament player is so skilled, why don't they put the same effort into cash and have at least 100X the EV.

Why'd you list Doug twice?

I'm pretty sure Doug has basically hardly played since he has stepped away.
Considering he runs a poker site and that factor alone may have cost him money shows he was pretty serious about stepping away.
FWIW I believe he said he didn't enjoy poker any more, not that he would never play ever again.
Its clear from his post session interviews that he has regained his passion for playing again with this challenge.

The one recurring theme I always notice is that tourney players really over-estimate their FE in cash games. I feel it's just being so used to putting pressure on players looking to move up the payout ladder that they think they can get away with murder and are shocked when mid pairs look them up on runnouts that dont make sense to bet on, but in a tourney your opponent often is unwilling to take that risk so they'll pitch all of their hero calls.

Ex: tourney player who won last nights game for a 10k payout gets tilted after I call his 2 donkbets with 99 on a 78J52r runnout and he turns over T2s. "I'm not happy about that! How do you like your hand there???" To which I just used a cheesy "pair of 9's beat a pair of 2's man why would I fold?"

Lol, true.

Google ‘Doug Polk retires’ and you’ll see what I’m talking about. Anyone who gets good enough to think a retirement message is newsworthy has such a passion for the game that they’re deluding themselves if they think they’re done playing. That was basically my point. Well, that and that it’s narcissistic to say that anyway.

Delusional, unfounded and irrational gibberish complied from jealously and a bruised ego. Yes, Daniel has a huge ego, but to state he is risking any meaningful part of his life roll, let alone the whole thing is absolute nonsense.

Not surprising considering his opponent is a fish (in relative terms). Who wouldn't be excited.

But I doubt he has the passion or desire to work his way back to playing against the current crop of crushers. Would be fun to see him try.

Daniel probably worth 15 or 20 million..he's currently down in the ballpark of 2 percent his wealth..he's not concerned about it, as appears obvious in his post match interviews, etc.

I suggest you reread what I wrote because I didn't say anything like this.

Mason

I suspect this is correct. But I do believe he's the type of personality that would be willing to risk everything, and that's a possible explanation for his accepting this match. But what do I know.

Best wishes,
Mason

I think y’all are overestimating his wealth, but even if he is worth $20m he’s risking at least 5% of it and that’s not insignificant.

That's kinda nitty

oh wait

Wtf does your post mean then? Maybe I’m an idiot because I can’t figure out another viewpoint

Have you seen the old FTP deals the pros used to have there? Hell they poured endless money over ERICK LINDGREN lol. Now realise that DNegs was at stars - alone at stars. It was just him. They didn't need anyone else. Pretty sure he got absurd amounts of money out it.

and he is after all #3 on the all time money list in poker. (yes, I know, deduct buyins etc etc.. Still though. Still..)

Daniel may be a HU whale compared to Doug, but after listening to the post-match interview I realize he's nowhere near as big of a whale as nanonoko. What the **** is that guy's problem? Unironically suggesting Daniel should make massive deviations from GTO against the former best exploitative HU player in the world is beyond idiotic.

Everyone knows Daniel is an underdog; he's not realistically planning on winning millions, he's just trying not to get crushed. Playing not to lose is essentially the underlying concept of the regret minimization algorithm used by solvers, so why would Daniel ever deviate from that against an opponent who is clearly better at exploitative HUNL than him? Even if he was planning on deviating, why on earth would he admit it in a public interview that Doug's people are surely watching? Either nanonoko is legit a whale stuck in the past, or he has some sort of personal beef with Daniel and is trying to subtly needle him.

Apples and oranges. The Full Tilt days were a different era, when they were trying to capture market share based on the ‘Learn, Chat, Play.’ with the pros concept. So they needed pros, and the market was booming and growing (and America was a part of it). That’s not the case today, or since BF.

I’ve never seen any proof of what anyone gets paid through sponsorship, just a bunch of guys saying ‘millions’ as if that’s a given or common knowledge. Duh, everyone gets paid millions for wearing a patch and having your face put on some banner ads!!

And yea, buyins kinda matter since Dnegs himself said he was losing money while cashing for millions.

Anyway, he’s rich, no ones disputing that. I’m just suggesting these aren’t peanut stakes for him. He’s not willing to just light money on fire for the **** of it.

Oh, and Lindgren is a broke degenerate who owes money. I think Full Tilt was loaning money to pros in addition to all their other **** ups