Lol I can't even imagine the bozarre shape of a coin that would come up heads 700000 times

To be fair, every possible ordering of coin toss results is equally likely

This is why backing has the potential to make a lot of sense. If you have 20-30 horses in your stable the likelihood of having losing years goes down quite a bit and the impact of not having the ability to carry losses is of a lessened significance.

And if the players are playing for fixed per tournament percentages (between 5 and 20% depending on the tournament and player) of their net positive results they're not getting hurt by this tax hurdle either and have a much more reliable income stream.


The live tourney donk in endless makeup archetype exists but its not all people who are backed. If you look at WSOP packages being sold you'll see a lot of people are not usually backed. Some percentage of these people are doing the same things at other live events. Impossible to know how many but it's not that difficult to find value in these things both from the perspective of the player and the backer as long as you're diligent about keeping costs low and, from the backers perspective, not being too generous. Of course not many are doing this and ONLY this - but that's because it makes no sense for any poker professional to limit their play to a very narrow area of expertise.

[QUOTE=LektorAJ;53079890]To be fair, every possible ordering of coin toss results is equally likely ;

Well I wish I could win half of my coinflips.

Assuming a fair coin, there is a lot more outcomes that totals 500000 rather than 700000. A whole lot more.

All of you plebs need to read about LaPlace's Law of large numbers: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers

No, a fair coin will NOT show heads 700k times over 1M samples.

Read and understand this wiki page.

That page looks like it would make my head hurt.

He/she knows that. It doesn't change the fact that each individual sequence is equally likely.

HHHHHHHH is as likely as HTTHTHHT even though there are 70 sequences containing 4/8 heads and only one with 8/8 heads.

A nonspecific 4/8 sequence, on the other hand, is 70x as likely.

Does anyone know how Allen Kessler does it so? Also who would be in the top 10 live poker tournament grinders out there? Would those guys who play the super high rollers even count?


Isn't it probably even more profitable playing 1/3 live no limit full time as oppose to tournaments as mentioned in the article? I don't even know how players can manage to play 1 tournament for the day max etc since it takes very long to be itm. Does anyone know on average how long most live tournaments take on average to be itm in tournaments where it takes several days? Or what about 1 day tournaments? Its going to be still at least 8 hours minimum right? Im curious about those 200 and 300 or 500 dollar tournaments with say 500 players etc. Those probably you need to make day 2 to cash i assume?

Over the summer, I saw a "top MTT" pro buy in for 4-5 times in an Aria $25K. I mean I guess he has a lot of cashes, but if you're buying in to a $25K daily 5 times, I mean you're bound to hit it eventually...

As a matter of fact:

https://www.pokernews.com/strategy/w...nges-21978.htm

Though this changes from year-to-year and varies a lot between series.

Just the way taxes work is a good reason not to be a tourny pro
You can be good and have a losing year

They're good for maybe trying to Bink and spin a roll up quick but a pretty bad way to make a living

Well allen kessler does it somehow. What is his secret? I know that he always get comps etc for a lot of things from reading his tweets.


Its like he seems to travel from city to city playing the mid stakes tournaments etc so he has to be doing something correctly?

He's a broke bum and a minimal winner at best in today's poker world

The article can be one word - Taxes

Well how does he have they money to do all this then? I been checking out his twitter and he seem to travel from stop to stop and flying from one location to another all the time. It seems like he sells shares as well but still how does he do it if he is a minimal winner. Because the hotel and travel cost has to eat up his profits.


I wonder... why doesn't he just play like 2/5nl live instead?

You've answered your own question.

A Dodge Caravan, with decent options, is about $28k.

He's not a "pro", he's independently wealthy due to his sisters business that he helped start years ago.

If you flip a coin 1 million times, it's going to be about 500k/500k. The universe would have to be broken for it to be 700k/300k.

but if you flip a coin 1 trillion times, the universe would have to be broken for there not to be at least one run of 700k-300k. Why can't it be this one?

Not sure 200k deviations from the mean ever do happen within any number we can write down.

The probability of one run of 700k-300k is absolutely tiny, basically negligible.

hell no! The odds don't get better for this deviation just because you decide to flip even more coins after