Before I start my response I want to say that I wholeheartedly agree that it is much easier and more consistent to make a living playing live cash games than Live MTTs, but that doesn't mean making a living doing the latter is impossible.
I agree that it is extremely difficult to make a living playing primarily live MTTs. However, most of the evidence that is used in this article does not accurately fit into the author's arguments.
1)You can not realistically expect live MTT stats to mirror online MTT stats. Online events very often have worse structures and overall tougher fields than live events. The average online pro typically plays many tables at a time and thus also lowers their ROI (even if only slightly).
2)Using stats from 136 players and 7,926 tournaments to claim what a long term ROI for WSOP events is ludicrous. The average field size at the 2013 WSOP was 1,282 players. You would need a MUCH larger sample size to even begin to estimate what a decent ROI for a good player is. Truthfully due to the nature of the game and how quickly things change we will never be able to obtain a true ROI for these types of events.
3)Obviously consistency is key to surviving, but saying that just because it was only one big score that made a player most of his profit means you can't make a living playing MTTs doesn't make sense. Every MTT player knows all of the money is in the top 3 spots, whether it is a 180 man field or a 8,000 player field. Penalizing their results for achieving what a player is striving to do is counter intuitive. I always tell people my goal playing live MTTs is to break even until I get my big score. This is a legitimate way to approach your schedule.
Now I will share my numbers:
http://pokerdb.thehendonmob.com/player.php?n=142216
This is playing PART-TIME over the course of 19 months. If I was playing live MTTs for my sole income I would increase my volume by at least 50% if not more.
Totals:
Buy-ins: $220k
Cashes: $480k
Totals not including MTT satellites:
Buy-ins: $205k
Cashes: $440k
Totals not including MTT satellites and only buy-ins < $2k:
Buy-ins: $140k
Cashes: $440k
Totals not including MTT satellites, only buy-ins < $2k & no WSOP events:
Buy-ins: $90k
Cashes: $418k
A few things to take away from these numbers:
1)Yes, WSOP are tough mainly because of their field size. I have played roughly 35 events for $50k in buy-ins and I have $22k in cashes. With fields this large this is a tiny sample size so no real conclusions can be drawn from it other than there is a lot of variance in these events.
2)For events with buy-ins of $2k+, I have played 14 events for roughly $65k (5 events make up $43k of this) and have zero cashes. Once again this is too small of a sample size to draw any real conclusions.
3)What is not factored into this article are live satellites. Almost all live MTT regulars will play Mega Sattys into events that they would buy into regardless. I have roughly $15k in buy-ins with $40k in cashes in these events. This is over nearly 50 events, while still not a great sample size, only one of the wins was a $10k seat. The next largest was $3500 with all remaining being $1600 or less. This is a much more consistent way to make money between big scores. Even if we half my ROI of 160% in case I'm running very hot in these, you are still talking about an added income of $8,400/year or 14% of your $60k goal set in the article.
4)Lastly and most importantly looking at buy-ins under $2k which don't include WSOP action (AKA the bread and butter of any live MTT regular). I have an ROI of 364% in these events. If you take away my biggest cash I have an ROI of 208%. If you take away my 2 biggest cashes I STILL have an ROI of 59% or more than double the ROI you used to base most of your article on.
I am not claiming that any of these numbers are definitive because they most certainly are not, but using these figures gets us the following.
$90k in MTTs buy-ins * 59% ROI = $53k
$15k in MTT Satty buy-ins * 80% ROI = $12k
Total of $65k * 150% to compensate for part-time status / 19 months = $5,131/month
$5,131 * 12 months = $61,579 per year
Looks like we hit our $60k/year goal!! And this is all based on my ROI without my two biggest cashes and a already reduced ROI for MTT sattys.
In conclusion; do I agree with this article? Not as it currently sits, if you change it to "Why it is extremely difficult to make a living playing Live Poker tournaments" then that would be something I could get behind.
Making a living playing primarily Live MTTs is very difficult, but at the same time definitely possible.
Last edited by bosox15; 02-22-2014 at 03:31 AM.
Reason: Added Hendon Mob Link