This is NVG we're talking about - populated by a bunch of 20-something year old males who don't have any life experience beyond playing a pointless little card game.

Even Ike, Ansky and DD believed that by having a meeting over tea and biscuits, they could get a multi-million dollar company to compromise on some of their price changes. Can you get any more clueless! lol

What seems extremely odd is that this does not seem to be a scenario that would trigger disclosure.

In fact, since financing has not been procured yet, it would stand to reason that any premature disclosure affecting stock price this way would jeopardize the viability of financing.

This was filed as an Early Warning Report, however I see no reason that such a preliminary proposal would trigger any Early Warning obligations. Can anyone shed some light on this?

I think nowadays, with laws like this-

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarban...80%93Oxley_Act

-most executives would rather take their chances stealing (in a privately owned company) than being part of a publicly traded company.

Looks like Baazov is under real pressure to come up with something before the EOY results come out. Seems like he has to be making noise of some sort to keep himself relevant. Share price is coming back quickly. TBH only fools ignorant of Amaya's track record would believe the recent announcement was something to get excited about. Company share price is toast once the results are made public.

What are you talking about?

They've already made a statement about Q4 results being near the top end of the guidance they lowered in November. They know what their 2015 numbers are, and have made statements allowing any observer to decipher them as well.

The only unknown is what they'll have to say about 2016 expectations.

Regulators in NJ have not shown any inclination toward that kind of pettiness.

The chessboard isn't upended - all of the IOM leg work is still valid, all of the technical work is still valid.

Now, going private could = more investigations and trigger more delays, and it may have broader implications for licensing in other states, but I don't think it has much of an impact on NJ (unless the DGE has issues with some of the new buyers).

Maybe? But lots of public companies are active in these and similar markets.

Not really sure about this. Scrutiny kicks in at the regulatory level for all operators.

If that's the play, it's incredibly risky. You lose almost all credibility if you load the gun with that bullet and don't fire.

Because they thought there was more value in taking it public?

Hard to see any of this moving forward without them on board.

That is important context here. The story so far has been so nuts as to skew the range of possible outcomes at this point.

I agree with the last line but not the ones that precede it.

Analyst targets are meaningless, that group 100% blew the AYA call since acquisition. It may be a bargain, but not because of the consensus target. If that makes stocks a bargain, you should start buying a lot of stuff, right now.

NJ operations won't be material and are almost certainly priced in. They may be over-priced in.

Not likely; they already revised down (causing the initial drop in Nov) and they just tipped earnings a week or two ago.

.....

Also: Kentucky is unlikely to resolve anytime soon and will probably be a 7 or 8 fig settlement if there's ever a settlement, not a 9 fig.

All fair, but as you may know, yesterday Rebuck saw fit to issue an order allowing Bwin/Borgata online to continue to operate in NJ while they vet GVC as potential new owners. That seems like a reasonable way to proceed so that there's not an immediate interruption of one of NJ's highest-traffic online sites, but DGE may not be quite as charitable towards a site that has yet to start operating...telling Resorts/Stars that they have to wait a few more months while new ownership structure is vetted wouldn't have anywhere near the chaotic impact as would halting ops of a currently live licensee. It's been reasonably speculated that new ownership (if buyout goes through) may be comprised mostly of financial entities that have already been provisionally vetted, so could be an expedited process. But I still think this entire thing will annoy DGE, which is never a good thing.

(Oh, and and in the event that the Scheinbergs toss in a competing bid -- unlikely, I grant you, but one I'm rooting for oh-so-much b/c this circus deserves it -- hold onto your butts.)

What do you mean by this? The differences in scrutiny/disclosure obligations are massive in Canada between a private and public company. The fact that they are a "regulated" as a gaming entity somewhere is a joke in comparison to the extremely onerous public issuer disclosure obligations.

Until the EOY results come out it's all speculation. "results will be a the top end of guidance"? We'll see... I wouldn't trust anything that is said, the figures won't lie.

Scheinberg Stars was a very tightly run ship, can't imagine Amaya is anywhere near as efficient. The poker revenue only covers so much.

What I don't get is why the CEO would publicize an indication of interest in buying the company if he's serious. Generally these are used by other entities who don't have access to outside information and help weed out those that are clearly poor matches prior to an actual bid.

Announcing an interest just drives up the value of the stock you're thinking of acquiring ahead of time, and if the deal doesn't happen in circumstances such as this where the stock has been in free fall, it just comes across as a desperation move and the stock will tank even further.

If they want insiders' stock value to rise in the transaction, they could achieve the same effect by waiting to announce an actual offer without the credibility risk if it falls through.

Or did they get wind that someone else was going to make a low hostile bid, and this is their version of a poison pill?

I think he meant that the gaming regulations are the same for private and public entities. Public issuer disclosure requirements mostly have to do with the issuance of securities to the general public, and little to do with the vertical you're in.

If you look at last Friday's stock price activity, something leaked. I don't know what, but something did: a stock that had bled 2-3% a day for weeks climbed 9% out of nowhere, half of that coming in the last 30 minutes. Just disgustingly blatant. With the Quebec insider trading investigation ongoing, Baazov may have wanted to avoid any appearance of even more impropriety, so announced much earlier than he'd have liked.

This is where actually playing might make a difference from just looking at numbers. Because games don't feel very healthy at all, they feel like they're over-raked, and like PokerStars is never going to be able to squeeze enough money out of the ecosystem to pay off all their debt.

Shouldn't the fact that Amaya failed to meet their revenue targets have been a red flag that things might not be that rosy? US dollar, bla bla .....

Companies go public because they need investments to grow and produce more

Poker company doesnt need that, unless they had plans to bigger things like GPI Global League or something

Better private for sure

+1

This Garcea analyst is pulling numbers out of his ass. Player numbers growing? Any fool can see the games are decreasing. All of the information is priced into the stock, that's why it's been headed for the toilet for months.

This Cantor guy saying $4.9B is the purchase price demonstrates his utter ignorance as the $400m for non-Russian regulation has to be added in and indeed Amaya noted in their accounts they were putting money aside for this.

The Baazov announcement might be a legal requirement that he states what's going on before he can even begin to discuss the option, I wouldn't accuse him of pumping the stock, just having to dot an i before proceeding. It does indicate desperation to me though and that the numbers aren't adding up.

What he is effectively achieving is turning a $5.3B asset slowly but surely to dust. What if one of these gaming companies like 888 or William Hill come in, what will the price be $2B? $1B? Would they even bother if players are migrating away from Stars. If Amaya goes busto, and no-one buys the software, other sites will benefit anyway so why bother putting in a bid? It's all so murky with this Amaya. What have they actually done in 18 months, that wasn't already implemented by Stars pre-sale? Have they added any value at all?

Can't wait for the next 'deal'...

The $4.9B figure includes the $400 Million deferred/contingent payment. We get it, you're an Amaya hater. But you may want to check your facts before you start throwing terms like 'utter ignorance' around.

I'm pretty sure the $4.9B doesn't include the $400m.

Are you just trolling at this point? Google it. It's not hard.

Doesn't he have an obligation to do so on behalf of the board?

Board? What board do you speak of?

The Amaya board that comprises of hand picked people whom the vast majority have no understanding of online gaming? Wesley Clark makes a career of serving on boards for various companies and collects a paycheck in return for his lobbying efforts. I've seen his name attached to a few companies that ended up on American Greed.

The board of directors aren't going to say nothing to the CEO who's signing their checks.

Here's the board of directors for Amaya along with their salary for 2014

David Baazov - $639,847
Daniel Sebag - $532,741
Marlon Goldstein - $1,639,760
Wesley Clark - $63,585
Divyesh Gadhia - $63,585
Harlan Goodson - $68,753
Aubrey Zidenberg - $56,235

http://www.reuters.com/finance/stock...?symbol=AYA.TO

Worth it? You decide. It appears 4 of the 7 are just names. The other 3? ... well a cast iron way to becoming rich is to pay yourself an enormous salary.

I almost want Sheldon Adelson to put in a rival bid just for the drama.

http://www.onlinepokerreport.com/195...d-scheinbergs/

Yeah, I think that was obvious and not sure why you guys thought Isai would be involved. NJ and any hope of entering the US would disappear in an instant.

David doesn't need Isai's money. The cashflow from Amaya in FY16 can withstand another billion or so worth of debt and I'm sure his backers recognize that.

Leveraged lending markets are ****ed right now. Wouldn't count on it.