FWIW, there was a crazy unexplained 9% spike in the SP in the final 30 minutes of trading on Friday. This obv leaked and some people traded on inside info. AMF, with their ongoing investigation into AYA, will have a field day with this.

Conspiracy theorists unite. Actually what you probably saw was Baazov making a large purchase just before market close. The spike was only .50 cents in the closing minutes.

Obvious why owners IPO to get the max-$$ exit strategy, but it has to be a total nightmare in actually running a public company in the poker & gambling sphere.

Even in a mature/regulated-environment, there's going to be so much regulatory-shifting and constant analyst/investor/legal scrutinization distracting from your core business.

The skeptics are right to question the motive/non-binding nature, but AmayaStars as a private company just makes so much more sense. A little more room to use your resources actually running your (still semi-grey area) business vs. wasting time/$/effort justifying to outsiders the running of such.

...not sure Baazov would be allowed to purchase stock with the knowledge that the company was going to be making a press release the next trading day about a possible $21 take-private offer. That's very definition of an insider trading on nonpublic info. The stock price jumping 8% on Friday (and yes, only half of that was in the final minutes) suggests someone engaged in some impropriety.

Not likely and possibly illegal. Google "painting the tape"

forget about not sure, 100% that anyone with knowledge could not legally trade and only the most dense would even consider.

the end of day, 9% spike is interesting, especially with the ongoing insider trading investigation.

Mr Calvin Ayre chimes in, well 5 years ago. Still an interesting read and still pretty relevant.

http://calvinayre.com/2011/10/16/business/publicly-advocating-for-private-online-gaming-companies/

If you truly believe that he is making this move solely to drive up the stock price you should be cashing out immediately because that would be massive fraud that would be easy to uncover. If you believe a man like that is running the ship, get out before it sinks.

What most likely happened is that some of the big stock/bondowners were unhappy with the volatile share price and set up a plan to take the company private. They announced it when things get serious because things can get sticky if they don't and even some smart people could read what is happening if they pay attention.

It is also quite clear that it was way too early to take the company public, the amount of variables affecting Amaya and the poker/gaming industry in general is simply too big.

For the players I think its mostly a good thing, you can be 100% certain that all the moves Amaya made that seemed like money grabs were at least slightly related to it being a public company. The bad thing is that it will be a private company which is in massive debt which means we'll potenially be in the dark for quite a time before we know should things start to go bad.

Going private would also allow Amaya to institute table caps (if they desire) without people bugging out about any perceived dip in traffic (where each multi-tabler = 1 unique user/table, etc.).

"From all angles, that looks like a bargain, especially since the consensus 12-month target price is C$34.78, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg"

http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/arti...rom-ceo-baazos

The company value is about to go dramatically higher once New Jersey operations start. The stock is extremely undervalued. Baazov is looking to buy and double his money within the year.

There isn't a mystery here. Baazov is extremely optimistic about the company and wants to buy all or as much of it as he can while the stock is way undervalued.

really?

Do you think AYA license in NJ is more or less secure with AYA as a private company? If in fact this deal is real (50/50) what additional steps would a private AYA have to go through to maintain their license in NJ?

Do you think AYA getting licensed in any other US States is more or less complex/expensive as a private company?

Personally, I think expectations for the US market need to be tempered. They have only received approval in a single state. They're spending time and money to get approved in all the others and it could take many years.

They can't even do a national marketing campaign, they have to do local ones in each state because there will only be a couple states a year at most approving them. Then they will have small player pools because they won't let them join the global liquidity, so the prizes will be smaller, making it less attractive for players to sign up.

Personally, I assign very little value to the US market for the next 10 years UNLESS they are allowed to offer casino gambling in all the states they enter. Big money is in online casino, not illiquid state poker.

Aside from that, I think their global rollout of the sportsbook and casino will pay heavy dividends years down the line. Amaya needs to invest in the sportsbook especially in order to differentiate it from the 10,000 other sportsbooks out there.

I am not surprised that he wants to take it private. This is a multi-year plan that will suck profits now but pay them many fold down the line.

going private would also allow them to bend the rules on segregated player funds, auditing, regulators, rigging the acutal game in favour of recs, superusers. Possibilities to steal are endless

I looked at some of the previous amaya deals and they are at the very least dodgy.

Pokerstars under the Scheinbergs was the only site were I felt safe to keep 100 buyins online. Screw that under private Amayastars. Keep my money in neteller and deposit enoug to play a session. cash out afterwards...

No wonder he has been running the share price into the ground. Now he can buy it cheaper. Talk about conflict of interest. I thought the institutional money would have put blockers in place to stop this type of behavior. I know they exist.

Gotta admit this is pretty funny. Baazov is all things to all people. He's pumping up the stock for selfish reasons. He's pounding the stock for selfish reasons.

I'm sure if it was up to Baazov it would be a slow steady line of growth. Not the rollercoaster these last 6 months. Online gaming is where the world is going. 10-years from now poker/betting/casino will be legal in the US and AM/PS will be very well positioned.

But I could be and I am probably wrong. No one knows which way the winds will blow. No one.

I wonder if there are any share price-based review clauses in the debt covenants.

I havent read through the mounds of docs on the debt. Richas and a few others have (to some degree) and the general consensus was they were pretty hard to decipher. Never got a clear answer on exactly what the loan covenants were. I had thought those were typically spelled out pretty clearly.

I remember someone suggesting there are some out of the norm clauses that give more shares to bazzov (and blackrock I think) should any more shares get registered and sold so as to maintain their current % ownership.

Lenders give themselves every 'out' possible.

Baazov definitely seems like the type of entrepreneur looking to grind it out in a challenging company for 5+ years in order to create (and profit from) genuine value somewhere down the road...

There was nothing that special about the bonds. They pay interest. They are not liked to it being a listed firm, they are debt for the firm regardless if it is listed or not. They don't have covenants like bank loans, bonds carry the risk.

The obvious partners for Baazov are BlackStone and Blackrock - they would earn huge fees for the extra bonds issued, they would also get their shares in their investment funds paid at $21 not $20.

Meanwhile the bondholders for the existing debt don't really get a say, they can sell or hold - that's it.

Blackrock et al have warrants over 10 years for about 11m shares that let them buy at $24 regardless of price for a decade, options effectively. Baazov has half a mill options likely at better prices. If this happens they get cash for these options.

For me the leverage here is too rich, but that is what private equity do.

Meanwhile I suspect that a bunch of shorters who started in the new year post holiday got a nasty shock with this announcement 1 month after they seem to have started, well just before 1 month :-)

Some of the share price movements have raised suspicions, indeed it may have happened again here but Baazov was not the insider buyer, he ain't that dim to cheat for dimes.

There is nothing special about these bonds or a private buyout - it is standard investment bank stuff - the investment bank makes loads, the CEO makes loads and beyond that if anyone does OK that is a happy accident.

Sorry. But. How can a money grab from the players be good for the players? If it goes private will we get hand outs?

Timing suggests this was on the cards all along in 2016

I wonder if this was Baazovs plan the whole time. PS itself is simply a money making machine and no share prices will stop that from being true. Amaya itself is going to losing value in the markets eyes because of the debt burden and just at a low point Baazov decides he wants to buy all the shares back.

I mean at this point the move makes sense from his point of view, just wondering if his actual goal was to get the share prices to drop in such a way he would be able to buy them all back at a low price.

I honestly have no idea what the hell is going on and what the plans are. What I do know this is one mother****ing hell of a scheme of epic proportions and I have no clue how this is going to play out but someone is going to benefit from this.

LOL this sort of analysis is hilarious. It's not that simple ESP with the game in steady decline across most of their customer base and share price has a lot to do with the decisions going forward to take it private.

LOL at this sort of post
LOL

LOOOOOOOOOOL

What was your point again?

Kudos Baazov. Smart move