you realize that using low end of mortality rates you are saying over 600,000 US citizens will eventually die due to covid.

maybe the entire country should take a more cautious approach vs some states cautious and some states taking the "party like its 1999" approach.

God help those fools in Tulsa on Saturday.

Las Vegas was going to see a spike in cases whenever they started to open things up again. This is true of every major city that didn’t see their spike at the very beginning of the pandemic.

Keeping things closed longer would have just postponed it unless they had kept everything locked down until we had a vaccine. Instead, they waited until we had developed more effective testing and treatment, so that the inevitable infection surge could be managed and result in a much lower death rate.

And this seems to be working. We’ve been gradually opening up for about seven weeks now, and while infections overall remain pretty constant (with a lot of local variation), the national death rate has dropped significantly every week since, and hasn’t seen any significant spikes anywhere.

Do not misread my comment as an attack on gambling. I play poker. But commonsense says now is not the time to be sitting around strangers for hours on end. Those who do seem to have confused priorities. IMO.

Take what you want, and believe it or not, but on one of the VSIN sports shows today Bill Krackomberger, a long time pro sports better living in LV, said his friend is a nurse in LV and said that particular hospital in nearly empty, covid and otherwise, talks of laying people off.

Also said he spoke to 4 different doctors that he knows that don't know each other, and they all said this is not as series as they are making it out to be.

The bolded is what I worry about for a lot of states. Reopening should have been tied to having a robust system ready to go, and it didn't seem like that was the case in a number of states. But I'm on the outside looking in, so perhaps there's more in place than it appears.

The problem is, this is a trailing statistic. Hopefully there aren't deaths to follow with these spikes.

I take it as what it is - a small data point, and an anecdotal one at that. Lots of these reports have been out there all through this pandemic, even from New York when they were seeing hundreds of deaths and thousands of cases every day. But hopefully this is the case in all hospitals there.

I feel lucky that here in BC, our government provides us with those numbers.

Commerce dong 8 handed with plexiglass

Everyone says this, but it doesn’t seem to be true. I posted this two days ago in the OOT thread:

With the recent spike in cases in the South, it occurred to me to check something out with respect to the common argument that deaths are a lagging indicator of infections/cases. Thus when we see a spike in cases, we shouldn't expect to see a spike in deaths until several weeks later.

This may intuitively feel true, but empirically it has not been true, at least in places that have had major outbreaks. I looked through my data for the peak in the seven-day averages for cases and deaths of the worst hit countries and states. Most hit their peak in both within a few days of each other:

Countries:
Italy: Cases peaked March 26, deaths peaked April 2
Spain: Cases peaked April 1, deaths peaked April 3
France: Cases peaked April 9, deaths peaked April 8
UK: Cases peaked April 14, deaths peaked April 13

Early states:
Washington: Cases peaked April 9, deaths peaked April 10
New York: Cases peaked April 10, deaths peaked April 13
Michigan: Cases peaked April 7, deaths peaked April 16
New Jersey: Cases peaked April 7, deaths peaked April 21 (though there was a long plateau for both)
Connecticut: Cases peaked April 22, deaths peaked April 25
Pennsylvania: Cases peaked April 10, deaths peaked May 5 (this is the biggest exception)

More recently:
Illinois: Cases peaked May 12, deaths peaked May 13
Maryland: Cases peaked May 24, deaths peaked May 1 (?!?, also a long plateau for both)
Virginia: Cases peaked May 31, deaths peaked May 28

Seems pretty likely they're just more prepared and know how to treat it better as its been around longer now.

And Tampa just started requiring face masks indoors now. Also Florida is breaking records:

Well, on an individual basis, it has to be true, except for those cases where they figure out the person had Covid afterwards.

The thing is, you're using a peak. In a lot of places, one of the earliest places this spread quickly is in the vulnerable populations, like care homes. I don't want to be morbid, but I would expect deaths would happen more quickly in that population. So if we look at the entire trajectory, I'd expect the slope for new cases would be longer than for deaths, and the peaks might not be far apart, or even reversed, as you've shown.

And then there's this:

So it could be that if the new case spikes are among a more healthy population, and if they're more prepared and have better treatments, there will be no significant rise in deaths. I sincerely hope that's the case, of course. The unfortunate thing is, you don't find out until it's too late.

Edit to add: To see the lag statistically, I wonder if it would be more evident if you looked at when the increases started in new cases and deaths, rather than the peaks.

Yes, I think that's true. However, even if death rates decreased initially, if hospitals reach ICU capacity then that number will surely spike. Seems hospitals are prepared for the higher capacity if necessary though. But as you implied, we just have to wait and see.

2 cases at Flamingo

To the people saying that we are better prepared now and better know hot to treat Covid, the former may be true in some places but the latter is not true. There are minimal therapeutic options and though we’ve learned some about the particulars of Covid infections (increased clothing risk for example), other than supportive care we aren’t doing a lot differently in the ICU than we were doing at the beginning of the outbreak.

By then with more data, i would expect the death rate to have fallen to .15%. Death rate has continued to fall the farther along we go. Remember those 10% death rate days? They were a hoot.

Both from what I've read in the news and the experiences of a couple people I know, it seems like there are a number of treatments/therapies being used on patients with serious infections that are effective in many cases.

That said, I have seen very little actual data on how frequently the treatments are being used, and what the death rate has been when then have been employed, beyond the initial studies suggesting effectiveness.

All I know is these treatments are now available to at least some people, and death rates have been dropping dramatically across the board despite no decline in cases. I really don't know how close the connection is.

This looks so crazy, especially at Bellagio.

Finally, there will be ample space between the Bellagio poker tables.


Also, I'm seeing no games running at the Bellagio (according to Bravo) shortly after midnight. The room had ~17 earlier today. Did the room shut down at some point?

OK flubro, I was wrong. not 600,000 dead Americans only 398,000 (using your own numbers). I'm glad you find this all so funny. seriously gtfo

Do we need to start back on the road to normal lives , yes . But compare and contrast the lines out the door packed casino floor when some AZ casinos opened with how a few others handled.

Harrahs Cherokee - Reopened slowly with invite only events

Maryland Live - Patrons reserve 3 hour slots to visit casino

We can reopen, we should reopen, but need to do it in a responsible way. It really is more than the flu, bro.


could you expand?

p.s. I cant imagine the stress and anxiety this has put on front-line healthcare staff like yourself. especially in hotspots where ICU capacity cant keep up. From the numbers coming out in several states, looks like more hotspots will be emerging.

That was exactly my thought when I saw that picture.

One of the most annoying things about the Bellagio poker room is that everytime you try to get up, you bump into players from adjacent tables. And vice versa.

Can someone who has played behind the plexiglas tell us how that affects conversations? Looks like visiting someone in prison or one of those instant cash places.

I would not be surprised if the level of conversation goes down 90% maybe even 95%. One must feel like an animal in a zoo. And gives a new meaning to the phrase "cage fight"

^^ agreed

I don't think Plexi glass solution is sustainable. There will be initial interest, but recs are there to have fun and gamble. That does not look fun. Many will try it , decide its no fun and move on to something else in their quest for fun and gamble. then games turn into a table full of nitty grinders pushing blinds around until a cooler pops up.

Requiring masks might be more sustainable (I thought NV already made masks mandatory for table games... if so Plexiglas is superfluous) \\

I've gotten used to wearing it around town and doesn't bother me anymore. also wouldn't masks be more effective at tables than Plexiglas?

Masks are required for table games and poker when there is no Plexiglass or other dividers. Otherwise not.

ah got it.

I think rooms would be better off and games would be better (more fun, more recs) with masks,

any rooms in vegas going this route?

I think Bellagio is the only room that has plexiglass so far, there might be another but I don't think so.

So now, after this recent new rule a few days ago, all poker except Bellagio, people will be required to wear masks.