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View Poll Results: Will the Corona Virus will alter their plans to attend WSOP this Summer (if it's not canceled)
Never planned on attending. 177 32.48%
Definitely wont attend. 112 20.55%
Probably wont attend. 93 17.06%
Probably will attend. 71 13.03%
Definitely will attend. 92 16.88%
Voters: 545. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 02-28-2020, 02:15 PM   #351
Dream Crusher
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Re: Will the Coronavirus cause the postponement of the WSOP 2020? (Coronavirus containment thre

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Originally Posted by PeteBlow View Post
I would say your second paragraph is totally wrong.
In 3rd world countries, people move around far less and therefore don’t come into contact with lots of different people. Hence there being next to no cases in Africa.
This virus has spread to the west because of westerners travelling from China whilst carrying.
People migrate through Africa by the millions each year.

I was also thinking of countries in the Middle East. There is a lot of migration between Iran and nearby countries and Iran has the 2nd most deaths from coronavirus. 8.76% of Iranians diagnosed with it have died, compared to South Korea where .56% have died. It should be noted that these figures should be taken with a grain of salt. Hospital sources estimate that the # of deaths in Iran is actually 6 times greater than the official #.
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Old 02-28-2020, 02:29 PM   #352
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Re: Will the Coronavirus cause the postponement of the WSOP 2020? (Coronavirus containment thre

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Spanish Flu infected 30% and killed 5-10% of world's population. We're not going to see a 5-10% death rate even if somehow every human on earth gets infected. And anyhow swine flu killed nearly a million people and nobody gave a **** in the end.

1-3% are the top assumptions for corona mortality rate, it could be a lot lower if there are many asymptomatic carriers, which is probable coz of the cases popping up everywhere.

Spanish flu also killed off young people who go to school/work and keep the economy running. This nearly exclusively kills old people, just like ordinary flu.

This is either going to crap out like ebola or maybe blow like the swine flu did but with more paranoia and closed borders. if that happens once the news cycle goes on to the recession we'll quickly forget about the few 100,000 dead pensioners whose lives were cut short by maybe 10 years max anyway. n/o to old people, I worry about old people in my family like everyone else but this isn't the next ebola
Today's world population is about 4x what it was in 1918. A lower infection percentage and lower mortality rate than the Spanish Flu doesn't necessarily equate to a smaller death toll. The swine flu in 2009-2010 infected about 10-20% of the world population in under 2 years, with a mortality rate equivalent to the common flu (resulting in a total death toll of about half a million or less). Coronavirus can easily surpass that with its 10 to 20 times mortality rate and quite possibly a higher rate of spread. It may not reach the same overall percentages of the Spanish Flu for infection rate and mortality rate, but can very easily reach the same magnitude in the counts.

Last edited by PokerXanadu; 02-28-2020 at 02:36 PM.
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Old 02-28-2020, 02:51 PM   #353
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Re: Will the Coronavirus cause the postponement of the WSOP 2020? (Coronavirus containment thre

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This thread is a depressing reflection on the thought processes of the 2+2 poker community. Disgusting.

-BD
+1. I think this sums up the thread nicely.
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Old 02-28-2020, 03:17 PM   #354
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Re: Will the Coronavirus cause the postponement of the WSOP 2020? (Coronavirus containment thre

The idea of them not putting on the WSOP because of Coronavirus is silly IMO. Why would they close down a tournament series but nothing else? If holding a poker tournament is too risky then wouldn’t being at the casino at all be too risky? Am I missing something?
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Old 02-28-2020, 03:25 PM   #355
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Re: Will the Coronavirus cause the postponement of the WSOP 2020? (Coronavirus containment thre

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People migrate through Africa by the millions each year.
My point was that 3rd world countries don't have so many citizens flying all over the globe on business and pleasure trips.
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Old 02-28-2020, 03:30 PM   #356
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Re: Will the Coronavirus cause the postponement of the WSOP 2020? (Coronavirus containment thre

I am concerned that Bobo Fett has gone strangely quiet on this topic, as we need his reassuring expert advise to ignore it until he considers it has become a problem.

Is he ok? Has he bravely gone on a mercy mission to China to battle the virus?
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Old 02-28-2020, 03:37 PM   #357
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Re: Will the Coronavirus cause the postponement of the WSOP 2020? (Coronavirus containment thre

Absolutely. And being bottled up on a plane has to be one of the most likely places to catch this virus right alongside being stuck on a poker table for 10 hours.

If the virus continues to spread I expect many of these trips, particularly the business trips, will be cancelled which is why I expect this to have a much bigger economic impact than an actual health impact.

If lots of other things start getting cancelled, I don't see how one could responsibly allow the WSOP to run this year. On the flip side, will Caesars really have incentive to shut it down? They'll be throwing a lot of money down the drain if they do. Casinos were shut down for a couple weeks in Macao but that's only because the government ordered them too. I can't imagine they would have shut down otherwise.
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Old 02-28-2020, 03:40 PM   #358
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Re: Will the Coronavirus cause the postponement of the WSOP 2020? (Coronavirus containment thre

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The nice thing about ebola was that the person who got it often died before they could spread it to someone else. Viruses are getting smarter and trying to find the sweet spot.
This was always the flaw in those ebola is going to kill everyone movies...or any virus movie where the virus kills people terrifyingly fast.
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Old 02-28-2020, 03:45 PM   #359
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Re: Will the Coronavirus cause the postponement of the WSOP 2020? (Coronavirus containment thre

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This was always the flaw in those ebola is going to kill everyone movies...or any virus movie where the virus kills people terrifyingly fast.
Also fast onset of symptoms made it easy to identify and quarantine.

This virus is really genius in the way it operates. Death rate low enough where it keeps people apathetic, but makes sure it will spread to everyone over time.
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Old 02-28-2020, 04:16 PM   #360
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Re: Will the Coronavirus cause the postponement of the WSOP 2020? (Coronavirus containment thre

OLYMPIC DOUBTS

"Japan is scheduled to host the 2020 Olympics in July but Ryan said discussions were being held about whether to go ahead.

Organizers will decide next week on the ceremonial torch relay, due to arrive on March 20 for a 121-day journey. Confirmed cases in Japan have risen above 200, with four deaths, excluding more than 700 cases on a quarantined cruise liner, Diamond Princess."

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-c...-idUSKCN20M069
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Old 02-28-2020, 04:27 PM   #361
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Re: Will the Coronavirus cause the postponement of the WSOP 2020? (Coronavirus containment thre

It is fascinating to work out just how serious this is, as it starts to feel as though the authorities are downplaying the high mortality.

In South Korea 24 have fully recovered, but 16 have died.

In Italy 46 have fully recovered, but 21 have died.

In Iran 73 have fully recovered, but 34 have died.

So the 2% mortality rate that keeps getting repeated is way out, it can be closer to 50% and this is at a time when the infected will be getting the best care, before health services get overloaded.
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Old 02-28-2020, 04:31 PM   #362
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Re: Will the Coronavirus cause the postponement of the WSOP 2020? (Coronavirus containment thre

Don't they calculate by total deaths divided into total known cases tho. Not Total deaths divided into total fully recovered.
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Old 02-28-2020, 04:39 PM   #363
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Re: Will the Coronavirus cause the postponement of the WSOP 2020? (Coronavirus containment thre

Some interesting formulas here:

How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...-rate/#correct
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Old 02-28-2020, 05:28 PM   #364
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Re: Will the Coronavirus cause the postponement of the WSOP 2020? (Coronavirus containment thre

Norman Chad is criticizing those who are making prop bets on whether the 2020 WSOP will or won't take place.

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Old 02-28-2020, 05:31 PM   #365
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Re: Will the Coronavirus cause the postponement of the WSOP 2020? (Coronavirus containment thre

What else would people bet on? People have been betting on Betty White and the Queen forever.
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Old 02-28-2020, 05:36 PM   #366
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Re: Will the Coronavirus cause the postponement of the WSOP 2020? (Coronavirus containment thre

Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerXanadu View Post
LOL. That's one heck of an assumption. What in the world would the desert heat have to do with the spread of the virus? It spreads person-to-person, not person-to hot sand to-person. Plus, there is not yet any study or evidence that heat affects this particular virus.

There is an awful lot unknown about this virus. For instance, close to 100 of the people that were released in Guandong Province, China after recovery (symptoms gone, cheek and nose swabs negative, etc.) were called back for anal swabs. Of those, 13 of the swabs came back positive for the virus! It is unknown yet whether they are still infectious or if it is an active form of the virus.

It is also still unknown the actual morbidity rate of the disease. According to official counts, it's running about 2% to 3% in total. Compare that with the 0.1% morbidity rate of the flu. However, there may be many un-diagnosed, uncounted cases of infection, just as there may be some uncounted deaths. Still, an apparent morbidity rate that is possibly 20+ times the morbidity rate of the flu is scary. Especially since the transmission rate is much higher than the flu, plus it will be at least 12 months before a vaccine is developed, prepared and widely available.

As of yesterday afternoon, there are verified infections in 50 countries. So far, most show an expansion of the number of confirmed infections starting about 2 weeks after the first infection appears, despite best efforts to contain it.

There is no doubt that we are looking at the start of a worldwide pandemic with the potential to cause deaths on the order of the 1918 Spanish Flu, in the millions. While medical science is far advanced from 1918, we can at least expect rapid spread of the disease and severe changes in societal behavior.

I don't think it is unreasonable to speculate that the WSOP may get cancelled this year.
This virus is more virulent than the flu (and even potentially the spanish flu) because of its very nature, it's a virus that can be contagious without symptoms during incubation and has an abnormally long incubation. That in and of itself means nothing though, sanitation has gotten much better since the Spanish epidemic, and many cities are preparing quarantine facilities for this, people in London as far as I can tell, are generally unworried. I can appreciate the analogy about the Spanish flu, but I think it's a bit off the mark. The majority of cases are in China still, and that's good, even if it's spread outward, we can't expect the same level of contagion to other counties as they're aware and preparing. Travel bans have been instrumental also. I think in general, things are being handled well, although I still don't trust the Chinese government, at all.

It's shown that hand washing is literally the single most effective measure to prevent illness, as most viral transmission is self induced: You get it on your hands, you touch your eyeball, your nose, your mouth, you're sick.

Knowing how many people take a **** and don't wash their hands at casinos is concerning because if it made it into the Rio you can be sure you'll have a 50% infection rate pretty quickly. They also have shown that since a vaccine is possible though, you can only catch it once. In general, it's not killing healthy, middle aged people, and we have no idea what quality of healthcare people in China are getting, especially those that have died.

The desert heat has a lot to do with it, along with the general lack of humidity, most viruses sustain poorly in arid conditions, they have a much harder time staying active in the environment, as with any virus or in general even bacterial cells. They need a host, or at least conditions to stay inactive but contagious. Thus hotter months are generally what mark the downturn of flu season.
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Old 02-28-2020, 06:05 PM   #367
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Re: Will the Coronavirus cause the postponement of the WSOP 2020? (Coronavirus containment thre

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Originally Posted by pleasefade View Post
...


The desert heat has a lot to do with it, along with the general lack of humidity, most viruses sustain poorly in arid conditions, they have a much harder time staying active in the environment, as with any virus or in general even bacterial cells. They need a host, or at least conditions to stay inactive but contagious. Thus hotter months are generally what mark the downturn of flu season.
What ? Do you expect the corona virus to die of Vegas Throat ?
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Old 02-28-2020, 06:45 PM   #368
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Re: Will the Coronavirus cause the postponement of the WSOP 2020? (Coronavirus containment thre

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and we have no idea what quality of healthcare people in China are getting, especially those that have died.
A lot better than what you will get anywhere else when there's no space in hospitals.
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Old 02-28-2020, 07:22 PM   #369
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Re: Will the Coronavirus cause the postponement of the WSOP 2020? (Coronavirus containment thre

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What ? Do you expect the corona virus to die of Vegas Throat ?
well actually it's a possibility that the virus fizzles out by itself when the weather warms
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Old 02-28-2020, 07:28 PM   #370
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Re: Will the Coronavirus cause the postponement of the WSOP 2020? (Coronavirus containment thre

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You are chock full of wonderful ideas. Have you considered starting a blog or someone sort of online newsletter that people could subscribe to?
No.

But I did consider starting 1 new thread per day for a year here on 2 plus 2 in different forums. I decided against it though.
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Old 02-28-2020, 07:29 PM   #371
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Re: Will the Coronavirus cause the postponement of the WSOP 2020? (Coronavirus containment thre

There’s a few reasons why influenza is seasonal. I’d have to imagine The coronavirus could have similar issues with climate/weather. http://sitn.hms.harvard.edu/flash/20...kes-in-winter/
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Old 02-28-2020, 07:40 PM   #372
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Re: Will the Coronavirus cause the postponement of the WSOP 2020? (Coronavirus containment thre

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Some interesting formulas here:

How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...-rate/#correct
the problem with this formula is that median time to death is much much shorter than median time to recovery. IIRC median time to death is only like 6 days, while median time for complete recovery is obviously more than a month. People can easily carry a normal cold for a month anyway and this is worse.

As an extreme example of what's wrong with this formula look at ebola. People who die from it die quickly in a matter of days or a couple weeks, but people who survive are often still contagious up to 6 months. Until you get to those 6 months it looks like the fatality rate is 100%

and of course it doesn't account for undetected asymptomatic cases, which are going to happen, or people with mild cases not going to hospitals or being tested which is probably what's happening in Iran

Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerXanadu View Post
Today's world population is about 4x what it was in 1918. A lower infection percentage and lower mortality rate than the Spanish Flu doesn't necessarily equate to a smaller death toll. The swine flu in 2009-2010 infected about 10-20% of the world population in under 2 years, with a mortality rate equivalent to the common flu (resulting in a total death toll of about half a million or less). Coronavirus can easily surpass that with its 10 to 20 times mortality rate and quite possibly a higher rate of spread. It may not reach the same overall percentages of the Spanish Flu for infection rate and mortality rate, but can very easily reach the same magnitude in the counts.
10 to 20 times swine flu's 600k is still well short of 100M, although it would be pretty devastating for developed countries. If coronavirus spreads to more people, there could be more dead, but that's not a given. For example ebola and coronavirus have a roughly similar rate of spread (each person infected ~2 people on avg) yet ebola was contained.

May is not that far away so this might not blow over by WSOP but I think there's a good chance that in the end we stay under 120k infected worldwide.
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Old 02-28-2020, 07:51 PM   #373
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Re: Will the Coronavirus cause the postponement of the WSOP 2020? (Coronavirus containment thre

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well actually it's a possibility that the virus fizzles out by itself when the weather warms
Ah, thank goodness for that, for a minute I was getting worried that this thread was missing professional medical expertise, but thankfully Xenoblade has given us this!
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Old 02-28-2020, 09:03 PM   #374
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Re: Will the Coronavirus cause the postponement of the WSOP 2020? (Coronavirus containment thre

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well actually it's a possibility that the virus fizzles out by itself when the weather warms
I thought this primarily was a P2P transmission, like sneezing with airborne spread, which would be affected by the outside temperature how ?

Are there going to be fewer available sneezing hosts and people because the weather outside is 40 degrees hotter than inside, say at the WSOP ? i.e Vegas Throat thrives in the summer, why not Corona ?

Isn't the virus going to be living and spreading where its hosts/carriers are ? Not like its loitering outside looking for a body to exploit, like a cheap hooker ? Indeed one of the dangerous qualities of this virus is that it allows its host to go about its business, playing poker, walking in/out of air conditioning, feeling just out of sorts for the most part ... seems possible to my igorant understanding that a nice, warm day might be just what the virus ordered to encourage its host they feel well enough to keep spreading it.
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Old 02-28-2020, 09:08 PM   #375
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Re: Will the Coronavirus cause the postponement of the WSOP 2020? (Coronavirus containment thre

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well actually it's a possibility that the virus fizzles out by itself when the weather warms
In a city that relies in air con. Ok, pal.
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