Quote:
Originally Posted by enzet
the amount of tournaments you estimate they played are incredibly low in both cases.
Yes it is guesswork but the logic I have applied is that Mike Dentale is unlikely to be a losing player in live MTTs, nor is he likely to be a big winning player in them.
I have deduced the first part of this from the fact that he has some longevity already in the game, that he has been entering a decent number of $1K plus tournaments, and that he has some very good results in some of these.
So for me, actual data, plus my own experience/instinct of how winning or losing players progress over time, indicates to me that he is not a tournament player who is banging his head against a brick wall and getting nowhere. He does look consistent to me with medium to big scores fairly evenly distributed across nearly 9 years of play.
So I doubt that he could have achieved this by only cashing 1 in 10 or even 1 in 8 times because those ITM rates are of a losing player in general. Conversely he is clearly not tearing it up all the time and dominating, which is why I estimated a 1 in 6 cashing rate.
For Cate Hall it is reasonably certain her ITM % is currently better than Mike Dentale's, how much better is the question. So I used 1 in 4.5 times as an estimate.
Perhaps I have gone a little optimistic for both players, so using 1 in 7 for Mike and 1 in 5.25 for Cate may be more accurate.
If anyone has a better guesstimation method that can be used to extrapolate ROI from Hendon Mob cashes please put it forward or point out if something is fundamentally flawed in my method. Perhaps the 12.5% (1 cash out of 8 comps played) base ITM figure I've used it wrong? But it does feel about right to me.
Last edited by SageDonkey; 12-12-2016 at 11:24 AM.