LOL @ that. What is Mr. Hawkings sample size on this event to be able to give such credible information to us all.

Kopp went with a read, he obviously put his opponent on a hand like ak with the lone ace of diamonds. It was still terrible given what was on the line and especially against the other big stack. He could have played small ball poker , checked the turn and just used the hand as a bluff catcher knowing what was on the line. Maximum moon would have bet on the river is probably two or three million.

What was the jump in pay from 10th to 9th?

http://www.cardplayer.com/poker-news...imination-hand

Kopp said he felt that Moon's c/r was a clear indication of a hand he liked - fairly reasonable read against a guy like Moon. So Kopp's thinking AK with Ace of diamonds, or A2 with the Ace of Diamonds, and wanted value...okay...but he doesn't include a flush in that range (not to mention boat)? Come on - Moon's not going to check/call with a flush, he's way too "Me like cards. Me bet cards".

So range of AK, A2, KQ (each with diamond), plus flush...I'll even remove boats as not c/ring, fine, just to go along with Kopp's analysis.

He's basically saying he felt there was enough value to get from Moon calling the shove with the hands in the range that he crushes...AND that there's a fairly decent amount of fold equity as well from a flush?

Kopp's analysis essentially boils down to - I'm a pro, he's a donk - therefore, I'm always right, and he's always wrong - he'll do EXACTLY the wrong decision, so I:

-Shove to get value from the hands I beat that he, being a donk, stupidly thought were good enough to c/r me on the turn (so he obviously will call)
-Oh, and on the off-chance he has a flush, therefore having me drawing dead, there's a very good chance he folds because of the paired board and I'm repping a boat (well, if you're repping a boat, then I'm sure you'll get value from AK, right?)
-And of course, he never has a boat there.

I think the vast majority of the people would say that Darvin Moon NEVER folds a flush in that spot. You can argue he may call with hands like AK with ace of diamonds, fine, but don't base any analysis on the fold equity of Moon with a flush - which is exactly what he did.

Eh, I took the next step and assumed that the money has essentially no value for Gates, in which case the bracelet is the ONLY value for Gates, and ICM doesn't apply.

A less powerful effect occurs if the marginal utility function is linear for Gates and decreasing for everyone else, in which case ICM still applies but is more powerful for everyone else because of the additional correction.

But whatever. It's all off-topic anyway.

Right, so yet again it was a case of a pro overvaluing his "pro-ness" against an amateur in the main event. Fact of the matter is kopp got outplayed that hand , it's really that simple, just like wassicka vs. jamie gold, and jerry yang vs. philip hilm, some of the very worst plays i can think of pros vs. amateurs.

In the end the cards do the talking , and you're not gonna bully people off monster hands, regardless of whether they are or aren't intimidated of you. I think alot of the reason amateurs have had such good runs in the main event is pros underestimating them, or moreso, their hand values.

/thread

+1 truly horrible

ALL of the people I know who play poker semi-seriously would make this fold. Most of the recreational players I know would fold here also. What conditions? The conditions you mentioned pale to the conditions of trying to make the most historic final table of everyone's lives. Making the Nov. 9 is life changing, finishing 10th is just a lot of money. Put it all together and what do you get?: Snap Fold

I fold. Poker isn't solitaire, you have to adjust your ranges for your opponents and the situation.

Also his rationalization proved he was thinking incorrectly.

He was thinking in terms of a few hands he hoped the guy had instead of a true range.

9. $782,115
10. $607,882

But obviously the real money jump is more than that.

This - sure try to pick up some blinds ASAP but when you get reshoved by the tightest player left on the biggest money bubble of your life then you fold and switch to decaf.

what if we know the next hand he gets is AA? Or if he plays for another two hours without getting a better hand than KQ, how does that change your decision?

THIS

/Thread

Once knocked out Hewitt said his opponent could have had 9s 10s or Js. He also stated he didn't mind flipping. Seriously?! Does this guy even know what tournament he's in?? When you make that call you're basically praying for a flip since you honestly cannot put your opponent on KJ or weaker. I actually feel bad for him because not only is his terrible call on video but also his terrible logic.

Obvious fold. Cannot even consider calling given pay scales.

As a rule of thumb any marginal call in a cash game is extremely -EV in a tournament.

Like some other posters have stated, even if villain is bluffing and shows we still fold.

Such a brutal call, its a Open shove everytime, no way kings match his bet

Well said. Hewitt talked himself into the call obv.

Insta-fold

i fold this in a 4.40/180, nevermind here

AQ may be tougher, tho......but on wsop ft bubble that may even be a fold vs type of villian as well

In a regular $20 MTT, with his image, my own image and the amount of my stack I'm calling off, even AQ could well be a fold. I won't bore our esteemed readers with the percentages of AQ vs JJ+/AK.

WSOP FT bubble, KQ is a turbo snap fold for a number of reasons adduced ITT.

Hewitt committed a classic weak player's error-he put his opponent on a range he could beat or would be only a slight dog to, not what his range should actually have been, given the way the play had gone.

Yeh, it is a bad call, given both players' tight images. Also, bad read of all the Hollywooding.

Thought Hewitt also made a bad call of Gianneti's 11xBB UTG push with ATo.

All of this

Calling a UTG shove for 11BB's with ATo is far more reasonable if he was closing action from BB, (was he?). Otherwise could be a bit sketchy from most other positions.

Kenny Tran would have folded KQ in that spot

Sick Fold Kenny.