Quote:
Originally Posted by critikal
He was getting ~11-8 so he needs ~42% to win. Even if we give him 99+ and AQ+ he still has under 30% equity. This doesn't take ICM into account which makes it worse since the chips you lose are worth more to you than the chips you gain.
It's much easier to do the math sitting at home behind a computer with a calculator and poker stove than after having played for 14 hours a day for 8 days or whatever. His math was off by quite a bit though. As others have mentioned, the range of 99+ (and presumably AQ+ to go along with that) Hewitt put him on is really optimistic given how tight the guy was playing. It's a fold even if he's getting 3-1, and here he's getting less than 3-2.
I read somewhere on here that he claimed he actually narrowed the range to 99-JJ, somehow eliminating the bigger pairs as hands that wouldn't 3bet shove, but rather do something else (3bet in a way that blatantly commits the stack? Flat? Who knows), so he ranged it down to 99-JJ. How he did that, I don't know, but in THAT twisted case, I guess he does have the equity.