Can Charlie Carrel beat 500z? (Tweets about prop bet) - Page 2 - Poker News

For the second time this week charlie is trying to spark up interest in a prop bet of him beating 500z, presumably since MMAsherdog recently reviewed his play on stream.

He alleges he has barely played poker for 2 years aside from him off and on doing his $100-10k bankroll challenge that is at $1500 after ~2+ years , multiple 500z sessions for youtube, and streams of MTT sessions here and there + coaching his hand picked group of students from instagram.

Whats the NVG opinion on it and will it happen?

I think people overestimate how hard it is to beat 500z. Most intelligent people who are willing to work hard can beat it. It's when you get to 2knl+ that it becomes very difficult.

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02-06-2021 , 03:11 AM

#28

Lego05

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 24,904

Quote:

Originally Posted by TreadLightly

Whats the NVG opinion on it and will it happen?

I don't know who Charlie Carrel is really. I've seen the name a couple times in NVG on 2+2.

But I'd be in on a prop bet against him beating 500NL zoom, assuming proper oversight is allowed. Seems like straight 1 to 1 is being offered. I'm assuming on Stars with no bonuses, chests or w/e else counting.

My bet is at most in the high 4 figures or low 5 figures though.

EDIT:

Also assuming a reasonable number of hands and a reasonable time limit depending on that number of hands.

Last edited by Lego05; 02-06-2021 at 03:40 AM.

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02-06-2021 , 03:42 AM

#29

Lego05

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 24,904

Assuming trustworthy escrow also.

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02-06-2021 , 03:52 AM

#30

happy to be hear

adept

Join Date: Dec 2017 Posts: 943

so we have gone from pros not being able to beat $.50/1.00 10 years ago to "terrible players can beat zoom 500 for 1bb."

the guy that responded to his tweet is a total asshat and Charlie definitely should have called him out like he did.

Last edited by happy to be hear; 02-06-2021 at 03:58 AM.

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02-06-2021 , 04:16 AM

#31

Halo_P1

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2019 Posts: 104

Quote:

Originally Posted by happy to be hear

He was legitimately offering a 100k+ bet for Charlie, which Charlie responded with mostly deflection and whining about toxicity rather than addressing him directly. I’m not certain he even wanted to the bet more the clout to be able to say he got no offers and that everyone is full of it.

Turns out he is getting offers, MMAsherdog is compiling terms for him too. For a guy with a very fragile ego this must be quite a frustrating situation.

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02-06-2021 , 04:41 AM

#32

StraightFlooosh

adept

Join Date: May 2015 Posts: 761

I mean if he got coaching from the right guys and played when the pool was good, I'd be highly surprised if he doesn't win over 1bb/100. I think its pretty crazy to think otherwise.

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02-06-2021 , 07:26 AM

#33

Kebabkungen

adept

Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 1,070

Quote:

Originally Posted by StraightFlooosh

I mean if he got coaching from the right guys and played when the pool was good, I'd be highly surprised if he doesn't win over 1bb/100. I think its pretty crazy to think otherwise.

Agreed. I watched GazzyB stream for Upswing last night 500z and there were some horrible plays from fish in the pool donating stacks. If you get some coaching and play when the pool is good it should be easy for an intelligent player to get a positive win rate.

It would have to be at least 2bb+ or stipulations to play during the same time frame every day regardless of the pool to be interesting

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02-06-2021 , 07:49 AM

#34

SleepySun

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 367

Quote:

Originally Posted by tgiggity

I would bet at least 5k against 2bb/100 over 100k hands if there was a reputable escrow

would also do the same, but never in a million years will he agree to that

add a time limit too so he doesn't take a year to finish it v whales

I see him banging on about being a philanthropist and the CEO of 'Thrive UK', but after searching companies house and the internet I cannot find any businesses tied to Charlie with this name. The only thing I can find are documents/articles of him talking about it. Plus no evidence of any real 'philanthropy'

Last edited by SleepySun; 02-06-2021 at 08:01 AM.

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02-06-2021 , 07:57 AM

#35

SandraXII

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 2,089

Just out of interest, what sort of winrate do the best super high volume players have in this game ?

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02-06-2021 , 08:06 AM

#36

Masq

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 15,008

I've watched him play a bit on his stream and he was doing well at 100z. For a guy who has certainly had a good level of success I like his chances of winning.

He really does some bizarre meditation stuff on his stream and fancies himself as some psychologist. He tries to portray himself as an all-knowing deity.

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02-06-2021 , 08:41 AM

#37

Mr Blonde

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 3,749

I think he should reconsider this. No barrier to entry whatsoever, nothing to stop a bunch of guys who play higher either taking the bet outright or pooling and then hopping in the 500z streets whenever he’s online.

That being said, if he finds a way to put his ego to bed and do some solver work there’s every chance he could eke out a winrate. From what I’ve seen on the occasions he has jumped in, he’d be an underdog right now

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02-06-2021 , 08:54 AM

#38

getmeoffcompletely

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 1,670

If the point of the challenge is to prove he's a winner in those pools then the terms he's offering make no sense. Winning at 1bb/100 over a 50k sample proves virtually nothing except that the player in question isn't a complete rec. If he wants to "prove" himself he needs to either go for higher winrate or bigger sample. As is, for a perceived break even or slightly losing player, the terms he's offering are pretty close to a coinflip and could quite easily be gamed by hardcore game selection, coaching, studying etc.

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02-06-2021 , 08:55 AM

#39

Jimmy Busto

banned

Join Date: Jun 2020 Posts: 655

500z has been overrated for years. Just a bunch decent regs picking off whales and fish. Every time I watch its idiots punting stacks. The smart regs stopped playing when stars started robbing them with chests.

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02-06-2021 , 08:56 AM

#40

JoseMourinho

Coach NLHE

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 847

Most of you dont realize 500z is almost never good. He could surely play 20min a day and cherrypick pools he is winning 1-2bb in MAYBE, but with reasonable time restriction its very unlikely hes >0bb100

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02-06-2021 , 09:23 AM

#41

do it buddey

enthusiast

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 62

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jimmy Busto

I agree, pool is piss weak.

Quote:

Originally Posted by JoseMourinho

I agree, pool is tough.

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02-06-2021 , 09:32 AM

#42

YaAaRnY

grinder

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 513

id do 100k hands in 2 months needing 2bb at plo , never used solver , and can get 0 coaching , only been dabbling back in poker because of Covid

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02-06-2021 , 10:24 AM

#43

Like_a_Fox

centurion

Join Date: Aug 2015 Posts: 136

Quote:

Originally Posted by GazzyB123

50k hands?! That's not a sample ffs.

Will bet a decent chunk against if it's 100k hands and an agreed winrate.

do you actually think it is higher ev if the bet was 50k hands than 100k hands?

depending of how much study time has before I think it might be better to offer 50k hands.

I don't get this charlie guy isn't it super easy to beat 500z? I mean its nothing to brag about... is 500zoom even mistakes?

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02-06-2021 , 10:56 AM

#44

rayfox111

adept

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 1,184

Quote:

Originally Posted by StraightFlooosh

I mean if he got coaching from the right guys and played when the pool was good, I'd be highly surprised if he doesn't win over 1bb/100. I think its pretty crazy to think otherwise.

This.
Theres no way I'd be taking the terms offered by him and I seriously doubt that he will offer better.

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02-06-2021 , 11:17 AM

#45

snowie963

banned

Join Date: Sep 2019 Posts: 1,484

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lego05

are you still allowed to edit your post? Everyone knows who Charlie Carrel is. I don't believe you haven't heard of his story.

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02-06-2021 , 11:27 AM

#46

TPeck

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2020 Posts: 332

^What a weird assumption that "everybody knows his story" from what I can tell he's some kid who won a bunch of donkaments then broke his brain doing too many mushrooms.