Long Form podcast with Nate Silver - Poker News

Two Plus Two Forums Poker News & Discussion News, Views, and Gossip

Long Form podcast with Nate Silver

Post Reply Subscribe

...

04-15-2016 , 12:51 PM

3BarrelSlinger

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 312

Nate Silver was a guest on the latest Long Form podcast. I thought I would share it, because he touches up on his online poker career for 5-10 minutes.

https://longform.org/posts/longform-...88-nate-silver

Quote

04-15-2016 , 06:03 PM

dhubermex

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 1,672

I listened to it. He first mentions online poker at the 6-minute mark, then the interviewer brings it back up at the 8-minute mark and the discussion begins.

Good interview.

Quote

04-22-2016 , 09:01 PM

oldstylecubsfan

journeyman

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 207

he talks about what 2p2 is like now...does that mean hes still lurking?

Quote

04-23-2016 , 05:46 AM

bhawkdown

banned

Join Date: Nov 2015 Posts: 123

highlights:

he could no longer beat the games in 2007, that's why he quit

he got interested in politics because of UIGEA

Quote

02-18-2019 , 03:05 PM

moondog

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 508

He showed up on a political podcast last week - Axe Files... https://politics.uchicago.edu/pages/axefiles

Covers some of the same ground as the old podcast re poker (poker is only 5-10 minutes, mostly other stuff.. growing up, work in politics/polling analysis)

Interesting: notes that he made 6 figures playing online two years in a row followed by a -70k year.

While many of you know him.. for the rest he's the data guru who started https://fivethirtyeight.com/

Quote

02-18-2019 , 11:55 PM

uncleriver

banned

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 366

Quote:

Originally Posted by wes c. addle

While many of you know him.. for the rest he's the data guru who started https://fivethirtyeight.com/

same guy that booked Hillary as a 98% favorite?

Quote

02-19-2019 , 12:25 AM

illdonk

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 2,997

Nope. 538 never had Clinton as a 98% favorite. Their last pre-election forecast gave Trump a 28% shot.

Quote

02-19-2019 , 11:00 AM

drbeechwood

adept

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 1,179

this is him on 2+2 in case people are interested:

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/members/289392/

Quote

02-19-2019 , 02:26 PM

dhubermex

old hand

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 1,672

Quote:

Originally Posted by illdonk

Nope. 538 never had Clinton as a 98% favorite. Their last pre-election forecast gave Trump a 28% shot.

That's my understanding too. Nate Silver had Clinton as roughly a 2-to-1 favorite going into Election Week.

Here's an interview he did two days before Election 2016.

IIRC, the 98% prediction came from the Huffington Post, and the Princeton Election Consortium had Clinton as a 99% favorite.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a7399671.html

Some of the confusion may be due to all the percentage quoting that was being relayed by major outlets on Election Night, which was later turned into viral videos once the results had come in. In some of those, I think there are incorrect statements citing Nate Silver or the New York Times as having come up with the "98%" number, but it was actually the Huffington Post afaik.

Quote

02-19-2019 , 03:32 PM

#10

moondog

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 508

I read fivethirtyeight election coverage pretty religiously.

In my opinion, Nate Silver essentially *nailed it* in 2016. Yes - he had Hillary as about 2:1 favorite, but that gave Trump a much better shot than other oddsmakers.

People who over-relied on the polls (which all indicated she would win), put Hillary's chances in the 80-95% range. Silver and his team sensed some reasons that polling in 2016 may be missing the mark (especially with such a non-traditional candidate in Trump).

Quote

02-19-2019 , 05:06 PM

#11

athletec

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 173

The polling was actually pretty accurate. She was supposed to win by 2-3%, which she did. The pollsters just missed how how much the electoral college can distort things.

Quote

Post Reply Subscribe

...