Behold, the worst play in the history of the WSOP ME - Page 4 - Poker News

Doesn't anyone here understand ICM? You have to pass up +chip EV plays to increase $EV. Also, you can find higher EV, lower variance spots than this nonetheless.

With T68.44M in play, and Tourn equity of:

25K/68,440K = 0.0365% for a fold
vs.
74K/68,440K = 0.108% for call

Does ICM really matter here? (ligitemate ?, not a level)

Quote

07-10-2008 , 01:46 PM

#77

exec771

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 17,484

Quote:

Originally Posted by GeraldGiraffe

Obv the guy with the red JT is worried that the other player has Q9 with a PBJ Sandwich.

WINNAR!!

Quote

07-10-2008 , 01:49 PM

#78

otnemem

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2004 Posts: 8,298

Quote:

Originally Posted by Downbylaw11

those hand histories are often reported incorrectly andi wouldnt be surprised if this was actually a 3 flush flop

Except Clayton was at the table, so no.

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07-10-2008 , 01:58 PM

#79

thanksb

veteran

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 2,942

standard

Quote

07-10-2008 , 02:02 PM

#80

deesnuts

veteran

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 2,958

That early in the tournament he could really just be waiting for a better spot. Seriously if Villian had AJc or ATc which is perfectly reasonable he's not that big of a favorite 56.67% > 42.73% for possibly his tournament life...and obviously the JTc freeroll.

Quote

07-10-2008 , 02:09 PM

#81

bubaloo

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 5,681

its < 100bb stacks and he has 1/4 his stack already in. seems like a reasonable fold.

Quote

07-10-2008 , 02:14 PM

#82

bubaloo

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 5,681

also hes getting a little better than 2to1 and he obv hasnt got the best hand/chopping 1/3rd of the time. ez muck

Quote

07-10-2008 , 02:17 PM

#83

philfan05

adept

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 854

[ ] $10,000 donkaments have tougher fields than $5 donkaments online.

Quote

07-10-2008 , 02:20 PM

#84

cpitt398

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 4,113

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gr8erThanGr8

that would make it 100,000 times worse imo

make new screenname, try again

Quote

07-10-2008 , 02:20 PM

#85

Zetack

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 3,859

Quote:

Originally Posted by DefiniteMaybe

You are correct sir!

I misread HH, which said "Viallain 1 has o call 30K more," not total.

I didn't add the 11K x 2 already in for Vaillain 1's raise.

1,950 + 22K + 50K = 73.95K

70.95K X 50.73% equity = 37.515K for the call vs. ~25K for fold.

Clearly a call! Thanks for pointing this out.

No wonder I fail at Donkaments!

I thought you were doing an EV analysis, till you got to the part about 25k equity for the fold (which would have an EV of zero). Obviously other people understand what you are doing, but could you give me some cliff notes on what you're calculating here?

Quote

07-10-2008 , 02:25 PM

#86

DefiniteMaybe

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 565

If he folds his EV is zero, which leaves him with the ~25K he has left in his stack after the fold.

Quote

07-10-2008 , 02:30 PM

#87

DJ Sensei

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2005 Posts: 8,696

No surprise the dude is wearing a terrapins sweatshirt, amirite?

Last edited by DJ Sensei; 07-10-2008 at 02:31 PM. Reason: Maryland sucks

Quote

07-10-2008 , 02:31 PM

#88

Anthony Montana

banned

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 283

Quote:

Originally Posted by DefiniteMaybe

I think the preflop action makes KK-QQ and even 99 fairly unlikely. If you add AcTc, QcJc and QcTc to the mix just in case villain is going crazy, you get

Board: Kc Qs 9c
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 49.268% 18.69% 30.57% 2591 4237.50 { AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, QcJc, QcTc, JTs, JTo }
Hand 1: 50.732% 20.16% 30.57% 2794 4237.50 { JdTh }

So that would be more like 50/50 on pot odds.

Since villain 2 has him covered, I am assuming villain 1 has less than but close to 30K, say about 25K chips left. A win is 1,950 pot (9 antes plus 500 x 3) + 25K x 2 ~= 52K

Call = 52K * 0.5073= 26.38K
Fold = 25K

It's slightly in favor of a call IMO.

He's a long way away from makng the money and you've to gamble and win these races to make a run at it.

Folding leaves him with an M of about 20 so folding is a DefiniteMaybe.

Just because KK\QQ etc are 'unlikely' dont not stove them to suit your statistics.

Quote

07-10-2008 , 02:36 PM

#89

Zetack

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jul 2003 Posts: 3,859

Quote:

Originally Posted by DefiniteMaybe

If he folds his EV is zero, which leaves him with the ~25K he has left in his stack after the fold.

Well that doesn't make sense since in his pre-correction math he had

Quote:

Call = 52K * 0.5073= 26.38K
Fold = 25K

It's slightly in favor of a call IMO.

When from an EV perspective, it should have been 26.38k vrs zero, which is more than slightly in favor of a call.

I haven't checked any of his math, btw.

Quote

07-10-2008 , 02:39 PM

#90

DefiniteMaybe

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 565

To be precise you can use a weighted range. I just assumed those would be weighted lower and therefore negligible. You could add 99 too. Is that a reasonable holding for the 4-bet shove?

If you add the pairs his equity is even better, ~40K-41.4K. That just makes it more in favor of a call.

Omitting them was giving the folder credit for being conservative in calculating his equity. I still think the fold is wrong whether you include the high pairs or not.

Quote

07-10-2008 , 02:41 PM

#91

TheWacoKidd

journeyman

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 368

Quote:

Originally Posted by RioGossiper

Were stack sizes mentioned anywhere? It's probably not that bad a fold equity wise versus other guys range. Ok, he probably wasn't a good player, but one could use this fold profitably and reduce variance in the right spot.

I could definitely see myself laying down if I were deep versus a nit, and there were some loose players I could resteal back the chips with a tight image from the tight fold. Such folds really get into people's heads, as this guy did to you.

There is so much written about that everyone knows, it follows there are many clever strategies that expert players use to stay ahead. I have seen Alan Goehring (who is LAG) make such a fold before to setup a table.

truly one of the best levels I have ever read... vwp sir

Quote

07-10-2008 , 02:44 PM

#92

DefiniteMaybe

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 565

Isn't the math supposed to figure out chip equity for call vs chip equity for fold, since those are the two options you are deciding between?

If you fold you have ~25K chips left.

If you call you have:
.202 win X 74K pot = 14.9K
0.187 lose = 0K
0.61 chop X 37K (1/2 pot) = 22.41K

14.9K + 0 + 22.41K = 37.3K

Calling is worth more than folding. Therfore call!

Last edited by DefiniteMaybe; 07-10-2008 at 02:53 PM.

Quote

07-10-2008 , 02:47 PM

#93

TheWacoKidd

journeyman

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 368

Quote:

Originally Posted by Downbylaw11

those hand histories are often reported incorrectly andi wouldnt be surprised if this was actually a 3 flush flop

reading comprehension:

get some

Quote

07-10-2008 , 02:50 PM

#94

Paatze

centurion

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 100

Quote:

Originally Posted by GeraldGiraffe

Obv the guy with the red JT is worried that the other player has Q9 with a PBJ Sandwich.

Haha

Quote

07-10-2008 , 03:02 PM

#95

pimp_named_ak

adept

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 997

Quote:

Originally Posted by Garbage Can

99s vs. AAo is a coinflip, and he's dominated vs. AAs...good fold

You're probably not very good at poker. Off-suit aces are much better than suited ones because they have two nut-flush draws. That's why people are always trying to get money in with double-suited aces in omaha.

Quote

07-10-2008 , 03:04 PM

#96

Pudge714

Modding All Day

Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 39,104

Lets just say villain 1 is so good that the other guy can have AJcc and villain 1 should fold here, because of his massive skill edge than his flop 3-bet is atrociously bad, unless v2 is calling a super wide range to his three bet.