Quote:
Originally Posted by murray3004
Anybody
Preflop hand plays itself, getting over 3:1 with JTs 200+bb deep easy call
On the flop Call911 is betting a wide range. Likely all bluffs/missed hands, along with KX+ for value. He's likely checking mid range stuff such as AQ if he has that. Ben *knows* this chooses to call.. likely to strengthen his c/c range on flop+ he might think call911 will bluff his outs or get there with a worse draw. Just as an aside..Raising the flop OOP with these stack sizes isn't the greatest thing, especially for balance.
Turn draw misses Call911 is now either still betting KX+ for value, along with possibly 1/4-1/2 of his bluff/missed hands for balance depending on how light he thinks Ben is Calling (lighter Ben peels flop, higher % he continues with bluff/missed hands etc). Ben is still getting over 2:1 and it's an easy call especially with almost 2 pot sized bets left to play for on river
River Ben leads out for two reasons:
1 - his range is more likely to have a queen in it. It's unlikely Call911 bets 2 streets with a queen, but more likely Ben could have called 2 streets with QJ/AQ/QT. This makes it so Call911 cannot check back his (likely) KX+ hand or free showdown. It's also harder for Call911 to bluf fshove here because Bens hand range is protected due to being will be somewhat weighted here way more towards the Queen.
2- Call911 may have put Ben on a draw, such as diamonds; If that's the case Ben may think at this point his Call911's range is KX+/air. If Call911 thinks Ben has diamonds/QX Ben;'s basically setting up a positive freeroll instead of checking. Call911 likely wouldn't bet river with KX (nor air - if the assumption i made is true) but he may make the mistake of calling with the former. I should note it may not be a mistake, especially if Ben does peel 2 with draws and will bluff missed draws (ex: if Ben would lead AThh, JThh on this river, then combinatorially it's not that bad, but player dependent obviously which I don't know)
Hope that helps!
Source - lurker who plays HSNL
short version: Qd improves Ben's hand range more than it improves Call911's hand range
Last edited by Kazuya; 08-05-2013 at 01:44 AM.