Quote:
Originally Posted by PTLou
gotcha
but if arbitrator route is a potentially flawed process for actual dispute, doesn't adding money to it just make it more flawed ?
nine high corner pocket like a boss !!!
No, not really from an EV standpoint. To make the bet, you'd only think you need to win the arbitrator's side > 50% of the time (assuming money is escrowed). While in the example I gave, some random making idiotic claims about Phil Ivey, Phil Ivey would think he would win in arbitration like 95%+, so if the money was escrowed and worth his time, it would be an easy bet to make, even if Ivey thought he only had a 55% chance of winning, it'd probably be a pretty good bet to make. However, from a liar's perspective, they'd only need a 1%+ chance to have an arbitration be +EV from their perspective without the side bet. Think of betting on the outcome of the arbitration as like like a normal court case, (which is flawed and has some % of incorrect decisions) except the loser has to pay the winner's "court costs". This kind of "punishment" (court costs/betting on outcome) for losing frivolous lawsuits/arbitrations helps keep frivolous lawsuits/arbitrations from happening in the first place, although it can occasionally be a double whammy for the innocent that gets screwed by a bad decision. If you the bankroll to make the sidebet though (or someone willing to bankroll you for the bet), it's often a no-brainer for the innocent party.