I was getting at the point that once the industry is up for grabs PS' value may drop to relatively nothing. There's a general conception that the PokerStars asset is so great because it has a "monopoly" but about the only real thing it has going is its liquidity, which AYA is flushing down the toilet like a crack whore in a drug raid.

How much exactly would be paid for a hypothetical PS asset that had lost 70% of its traffic volume over 2-3 years? Who would buy it? Would the price induce creditors to sell? Seems like a company like 888 might want it but then again, they might want to keep it in the arena to bleed out a little more, setting up the coup de grace.

If things continue to go badly I'm assuming at some point the creditors or their agents will start taking on executive roles. Does a tech-heavy dot com gaming company run by a committee of golf course geezers (none named Soze) and retired bankers sound like a map to undiscovered treasures? Or just a shipwreck?

PS isn't a monopoly, its MySpace and that's how it always should have been valuated.

it does matter imo. not to judge if he is a 'good guy', but to think about what money he has in this situation.

Interesting. Anyone else here recognize the guy on the right with his arm around Baazov ?

I do not know who would buy it, maybe a regulated company already licensed in the casino gambling and online poker space (active in the US but not internationally) which could pay pennies on the dollar for what were once "tainted assets" but have since passed through an interim owner and been licensed for use in NJ.

The price may drop to relatively nothing, but the asset value to a strategic buyer may hold pretty strongly.

Take look at the photo posted above, maybe ? All the pieces are there for you, from left to right.

He wasn't on my radar, but that's Mitch Garber of Caesars Interactive/WSOP.com, isn't it? Naturally, there is a "philanthropy" section on his wiki page. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitch_Garber

I wonder if his philanthropy extends to saving Pokerstars from DB.

I would not use the words philanthropy or saving necessarily.

However, an acquisition by Caesars/WSOP of desirable Amaya assets sure would boost Caesars/WSOP's international footing, especially and would not raise any insolvable issues in the US, where Caesars is presently licensed already. (Caesars may want an "international growth' story about Asia, Europe and Latin America to better resolve its own financial pressures.) As an experienced casino operator and sportsbook operator, Caesars arguably might even better leverage Stars database in thos channels than current Amaya management, adding value that way.

It may make strategic sense, and everyone in that photo is smiling a lot.

Sorry if I missed it, but why is no one talking about the somewhat glaring paragraph Amaya buried lower down in their their March 29 press release:

...
AMF Update

On March 23, 2016, Amaya announced that the AMF had charged Mr. Baazov with aiding with trades while in possession of privileged information, influencing or attempting to influence the market price of securities of Amaya and communicating privileged information.

Subsequent to that announcement, the Board became aware of a decision of the Bureau de Decision et de Revision, the administrative tribunal in Quebec that hears certain AMF applications, which discloses additional AMF investigations into the alleged conduct of Mr. Baazov and others which are beyond the scope of the charges and of the internal investigation referred to in Amaya’s March 23rd announcement. While none of these allegations have been proven, the Board takes them seriously and has expanded the mandate of the Special Committee to investigate these additional matters.

WTF "additional AMF investigations"? So the amaya board just became aware of even MORE shadiness in the last 2 weeks?

I think in the last two weeks,they became aware (in the "no longer plausible to deny knowledge" sense) of such other areas of investigation prior to the March 23 announcement ...

Actually I believe that broader scope has long been out there in the public discourse .... but you ask, "why no one in NVG talking about some "non-poker" anything"; I think the question is rhetorical, given the myopic scope of NVG interest generally of"How does it affect me".

When all NVG cares about is poker, non-poker insider trading fails the interest test of "Yes, but is it good for me ?"

I think it's NVG gold.

There's some other gold in that press release, too:

Apologizing for the short con, setting up the long

Isnt CET occupied with playing the bancruptcy game nowadays?

The expansion into an international foothold afforded by a Stars acquisition, making Caesars into international gambling company building on Playtika, may be a story that secured creditors can accept as a way to grow out of that hole.

I am not saying it is easy at all, and do not know how many secured creditors or who may have interests concurrently in both Amaya/Stars and Caesars, but a good story can encourage some real horse-trading among debt-holders.

There would surprisingly few legal/regulatory barriers, aside from Stars having to exit all grey markets. However, approval in the US would be feasible AND could actually encourage the spread of online poker adoption in additional states.

That photo simply highlights the prospect of such a transaction, if the price is right.

I agree with a lot of this. Caesars would make as much sense as anyone who would want to take a punt at this. Or be able to convince backers to.

OT but TrustySam had a theory that BigSalmon and his cackle of prolific, relatively articulate shills may have actually been named co-conspirators in the AMF action. That theory seems to be gaining credibility by the day as their absence grows ever more conspicuous given their previous daily carpet bombing of these boards with pro-Amaya nonsense.

At this point, wouldn't a potential acquirer only be interested in an asset sale, with the debt load and all the pending lawsuits against the company? Even then, there may be successor liability rules at the federal and state level that would still have them on the hook for all these contingent liabilties.
I just don't see it, unless we're talking fire sale prices.

You called?

I don't bother posting on the forum anymore because I don't see a point. It's just a bunch of regulars like yourself sticking your fingers in your ears and saying "lalalalalala" loudly when you read something you disagree with.

Then there is your tendency in calling people shills, again only when they present a countertpoint to your somewhat paranoid, fact-devoid rants. I have nothing to do with Amaya or the AMF or the faked moon landing; I'm just a recreational player that logs on when I can (several times a month) and that's it.

Believe me or not, I couldn't care less. Bye.

Couldn't care less? Thought you had a big long position.

Anyway you could do a word count, bet I've written the word shill less than 10 times in my entire posting history.

Since you're just a player, not an investor, some leniency can be extended but your own posts have often been light on data and heavy on speculative conclusions. But unlike your lying a** I'm actually not an investor so spend no time doing any kind of research whatsoever. The most productive way of disputing facts though, as you may recall from middle school, is to present counter facts or flaws with the original facts rather than invoking fake moon landings and other ******ed cop outs.

For anyone with a million plus hand database its pretty clear where this thing is heading, at least in terms of poker.

Oh really? You bought into amaya stock massive on 13th Nov 2015, as well as pushing all your friends and family to do the same.

Price then 21.81, Price now 16.09 an almost 30% loss on your "substantial personal position". I hope the job of Amaya shill pays well.

bigsalmon has talked plenty of nonsense in this thread, but people who think Amaya has a budget to pay shills on NVG think Amaya cares about NVG by a factor of about a million times more than I think they do.

The official representatives don't even bother to post in the thread about the FTP PS player pool merger ffs.

pretty much this. while i've no doubt that big companies hire shills for investor forums, i can't see any benefit of anyone 'working' here.

most of the nvg-tards don't have any money to invest and don't like amaya. same applies for the theory about the shills for vip changes. why change to the REC-model and try to convince REGs?

but enough of derail ^^

@ caesars

i've read some stuff about caesars-pokerstars and their recent attempt, to bring online poker to california, but even with the Baazov-Garber pic i can't imagine, why caesars would try to buy amaya. caesars tries to get rid of their debts (20b+) and so far it seems all the planned 'chapter 11 bankruptcy" will fail. junior creditors sued and it seems the senior creditors are tiered of the progress as well. so chances are good, that there will be a real bankruptcy ... on the other hand, the last years were a bit crazy and we shouldn't be surprised if there's some weird deal including caesars and amaya

bigsalmon posts = text form of the AIDS virus

In his defence, I think every time iv ever seen 'I could care less' on these pages the writer has meant the exact opposite so...

I'd be surprised if the lenders didn't take a lien on the assets.

^ There are other non-loan potential liabilities though, e.g. Kentucky lawsuit.

I didn't mean to imply this wasn't a possibility.

But I don't think the Kentucky thing is too important.



Edit:

Meaning, I think Amaya will mostly win the Kentucky thing. But, yes, maybe they won't, and yes, maybe there are other liabilities out there. So, yea, as you say, that does matter.

From Amaya's latest financial release, the two outstanding unsecured loans ($30 million CAD & $100 million USD) are at interest rates of 14.1% and 16.16% respectively. So....the going rate for unsecured lines of financing appears to be extremely high (maybe even more so now).

Also, they had to post a $100 million bond in the appeal of the Kentucky judgement ($35 million cash + letters of credit (?)) - maybe they win/settle low on appeal, but it's a much bumpier road than the old private/IOM days where they could sit outside of the law's (legitimate and questionably legitimate) reach.