Quote:
Originally Posted by AnyQuestions21
100% if BF didn't happen, Full Tilt would have been fine. At least in the short term, it's clear now looking back that having those two in charge of everything was a poor decision that would probably have led to some other disaster happening so I couldn't say it'd have been still here today but 2011 wouldn't have been the end that's for sure.
Full Tilt was already wobbling in early 2011 - they were experiencing slow cashouts even to places like Neteller; industry savvy people were starting to realize that basically they couldn't process cashouts to Neteller until they had enough deposits come into their Neteller account to cover them. I wholly disagree they weren't about to fall over before Black Friday.
With that said, I think they did have a path to recovery. It involved some very basic steps:
1) Bitar calling a shareholders meeting and informing them of the processing backlog/blackhole of likely bad deposits that would never be realized
2) Informing shareholders of the current size of the backlog
3) Informing shareholders that all disbursements would be ceased until the backlog was cleared
4) Turning off echeck deposits for US players unless working with a processor who was clearing them consistently
5) Turning off any crediting to FTP team pros and collecting outstanding markers from them
I do believe there was enough actual funds on the site and enough new legitimate deposits coming in that if they stopped digging, they could start filling the backlog. The downside of this would have been an immediate drop in site liquidity and an abandonment of the concept that they were a legitimate competitor to PokerStars in terms of size.
However, between continuing to accept new bogus deposits, increasing their marketing, and continuing to pay out immense disbursements to the shareholders, they just kept digging a bigger and bigger hole.
What I have always believed is that Bitar knew that if actually came clean, the shareholders would realize he was an incompetent boob, and he'd be immediately fired. I also believe a number of shareholders knew or strongly suspected how bad the situation was, but hid behind "well no one explicitly told me" or "I'm not part of the executive team", and figured they'd just keep collecting their disbursements. The situation could have been saved, but it wasn't going to be.
As it stands, I suspect Black Friday probably saved a lot of Full Tilt customers from losing even more. You can't imagine how much it pains me to say anything remotely complementary about Black Friday, but it's true.