Quote:
Originally Posted by ninefingershuffle
Want to talk us through your thought process on the final table QQ fold hand? I don’t play nl or tournaments but I find all the hubbub fascinating.
Good run.
This one got a lot of scrutiny, but if I could do it over, I'd still fold. Maybe I'd call...I definitely wouldn't shove. The only thing that could make me feel like it's a definite call/shove is that he might've gone a hair smaller with KK/AA but I didn't have a reliable enough read on how he sizes that spot.
As for why I folded...
1. GG played really solid and he's a good player, but he's not known for getting out of line preflop. I opened UTG and Dario flatted BTN off 22 bbs, both of us have very strong ranges.
2. Given that, I gave him JJ+, AK, and then some amount of combos of TT and AQ. I really believe he flats 99 in this spot, and don't think he has A5s or other such bluffs almost ever. Nor should he TBH...Dario's flatting range is also quite strong and includes some traps. Given this sort of range, I likely have somewhere between 48.5 and 53% equity pre
3. Dario's range off this stack size should look something like 77-99, ATs, AJs, KQs, AQo, and maybe a few more suited broadways. TT will usually jam pre but occasionally flat. JJ-QQ, AK always jams, and then he has some traps. I'd say he traps AA more often than not, and 3bets or jams KK more often than not, but he should have some combos of each. So some non-zero % of the time, I run into Dario's AA/KK
4. ICM - there were two stacks that were quite short, and I had a middling stack, which is the ICM disaster situation. Getting it all in with 53% against G.G. is a significant big mistake; getting it all in with 49% is a disaster
5. Stack depths, postflop skill edge. I believed I had a postflop skill edge against the remaining field, especially with such a good structure where stacks stay reasonably deep. Yes, sometimes GG 3bet folds TT/JJ/AQ and I pick up 17M or whatever it was, but that doesn't do a huge amount for my positioning relative to the other stacks
Some people have likely correctly pointed out that calling and folding on A/K hi flops is a pretty decent option. The price isn't bad and his most likely single combo is AK. I wouldn't fault anyone for flatting, but I still believe shoving to be incorrect.
People are inherently results oriented. If he had KK there, they would've said it was the fold of the century (it's not remotely close). If he'd had AK, they would've probably called it a reasonable fold. I ran into what I believe was the bottom of his range, and given that and all my reasoning above, I'm happy with the decision to fold.
Like I said in my interview after it was over, I folded AK and QQ earlier in the tournament when I would've been up against AK and AK. My strength is deepstacked postflop poker, and in tournament terms, 50bbs qualifies there. So now you guys know how to put pressure on me if you find yourselves at my table in the main in the future