Quote:
Originally Posted by tyler11
This would have to be like 1 in 10 million chance of happening or there is cheating going on here!
Not even close. This is the innappropriate view of odds fallacy and the texas sharpshooter fallacy. The chances of
some player at
some time having
some type of extremely good result is nowhere near 1 in 10 million, quite the opposite, it's a favorite to happen. Think about how many players there are, how many tournaments there are, how many years poker has been around, how many opportunities there are to have extreme results.
If before the run took place, you singled out this particular player and said he would win these particular tournaments on this particular day, then it would be something like 1 in 10 million, probably lower. But that's not what happened, it could have happened tomorrow, a year from now, it could be a different player, it could be a bunch of 2nd place instead of 1st, etc.
Look for suspicious play to prove cheating. Otherwise you have no evidence. All you have is something happened that has happened before, that we would expect to happen again even if there is no cheating involved.