Would have to earn 13% interest every yr. Not easy to do over 20 yrs. And that does t even include the money you could earn on the 60k payments over the same time. 60k/yr earning 13% interest is $5.5 million after 20 yrs.

So then you have to earn 25%, etc. the interstate solution to achieve the true 10x the interest becomes insane as in 5 digit interest. Could do a more accurate calc but the concept is simply ridiculous.

Here is the solution:

1. Complainsaw should not sell any action to all the events he plays the rest of 2024 even though he will miss out on the ridiculous mark up people somehow pay him.

2. He will lose a lot more this year in addition to the $100k plus he admits he already lost at the WSOP because he sucks at poker.

3. Take lump sum and write off the $500k or so he will now be down this year from poker (plus as an added benefit he will save the poor souls who would have staked him and lost a lot of money)

You’re welcome Chainsaw!

Why not sell and write off the losses anyway?

Actually he should sell action bc he's -ev. We both know he takes the full write-off when he doesn't cash an event.

But he is EV+ in slots! He clearly doesn't play for the mincash in slots.

This math was posted for Kessler's situation. Kessler has posted he has 150k in losses this year. So the lump sum offer was 805k. After losses and personal exemption from that total, his net check after taxes (including SS taxes) would be $565,354. The 20-year bond rate was 4.4% last week when he hit the 1.2 mil jackpot, (it is lower now), but based on 4.4% his after-tax total would grow to $1,258,112 after 20 years.

If he took the $60,505 annual check, his first year would be tax-free. Then in the following years, his after-tax check would be $44,586. (only a 12% tax rate vs 37% for the amount over $400k for the lump sum). These 60k + 19x44k payments at 4.0% over 20 years would grow to $1,400,877 if he has NO future gaming losses in future years. (highly unlikely). But if he averages -15k in losses in future years (very likely) his annuity would grow to $1,554,961. So he is much better off taking the 20 year annuity.

The 12 percent tax rate assumes he'd never have any other income going foward. Otherwise the extra income from the annuity would be taxed higher than that.

You are making many assumptions. You are assuming only 12% tax bracket, but you assume no other income. Any additional income will drive up that rate. We have zero idea of what future tax brackets will be, but if we assume zero changes to current laws the rates will increase in 1.5 yrs. And what about filing status. That can certain change over 20 yrs. If not married, he may get married. Tax wise good. But if married, could be single. Bad, taxwise.

So ofc the annuity is better in these calcs. You used a tax rate of half. We already know that to the payer, the two choices are equal. They use one @nd the current annuity market to calculate the other.

Agreed. And if he is a trust fund baby as some h@ve said, he quite likely has significant trust income already. If so then marginal rates on these winnings may be very similar.

This is an excellent breakdown, so thanks for posting it. But it's provided he lives for at least 20 years, and doesn't consider whether it's important to him to leave an inheritance. Also, there may be some things he wants to do in life that would only be possible with the lump sum up front

Someone shouldÂ’ve started a thread about KesslerÂ’s jackpot.

I watched the whole ME day 8 video. Nit it up was not Kristen Foxen's style at all. She played pretty LAG, opening wide, bluff 3-betting a lot, firing pot and 1.5x pot with air. By contrast, most of the others were playing very cautious. Her approach probably works well with her gender, as people can't believe she is bluffing. When you play that way, you sometimes crash and burn. I agree the bluff in the bustout hand was bad though.

She lit a lot of potential money on fire.

Yeah, they show GTO analysis of that bustout hand (defending the BB with KQ against an UTG raise on an AKJ board), and it concludes it is a bad play. However, it was worse than that because people were playing so cautious that the large turn bet often meant Serock had it. She probably thought the bigger stack was bullying.

I do give her credit for playing aggressively. Most of the players were "nitting it up" with 2 tables left, and burning money that way.

Bit off topic but for anyone that went WSOP, do you know where the best place around the strip is to cash in a check from tax refunds? Doesn't have to be the cheapest but just places that are convenient and will do over $5k.

I read some casinos do it but the posts are from years ago so not sure if they do anymore.

Which month did they announce the schedule this year?

Feb 16. They usually do it in February.

Guessing they'll toss out some basic info at the end of WSOP Paradise in December. I believe they did that last year.

Then you'll get more detailed schedule info in 2025. Easy to Google for last year's exact release dates.