Interesting take... Galfond was perhaps reading Colman's play based on experience in high-stakes cash games where Colman would be engaged in long term set-ups, establishing a reckless image for a few hands or sessions, and reloading.
I just don't think Colman bets out too often without something pretty decent in this situation, so close to a $1.3 million bubble, with blinds rising precipitously. There is no rebuy option and Colman had a "recklessly large" percentage of himself. It's not like he is simply risking $30,000 or whatever, which he can replenish.
I agree with the polarized range in theory, but would hazard that he is going to be bluffing significantly less than 50 percent of the time. Colman may very well have a read on Galfond's range and have something thin-valuish (and still a winner) like pocket tens or a jack-x. He could even have something like 10-9 in this situation, and be trying to get Galfond off a perceived jack. Again, with live poker a lot comes down to reads and Colman may have had a pretty good idea of Galfond's range.
Even given the polarized range possibilities, how often is Colman going to completely bluff in this situation?
I am toying with the idea that Colman intentionally set up some very subtle (apparently unconscious) tells throughout the tournament, which he then used to his advantage in critical hands. This gets back to someone's comment on a thread that Colman had a recognizable tell. Not so simple, I think.
Wish there was some streaming tape of the action surrounding to place this in context. ESPN really chopped up hands, put them in different orders from when they occurred. Should have sneaked in a camcorder
Last edited by shulenberger; 08-31-2014 at 12:08 AM.