(xposted from r/poker, but some interesting discussion there so also interested in others views)
Hi all
When I was 24 in 2006/07, I grinded a $50 deposit into playing NL200 and NL400 (i.e. 1/2 and 2/4 blinds), mostly on absolute poker, while I was at university. Obviously there are massive amounts of stories more impressive than mine, but I thought some might get a kick out of what the games were like then vs now, and a few other thoughts.
Why I started again in 2020
I was a bit bored in lockdown but really enjoyed playing poker with friends over work (on a free site with video calls, with settling up $ after) so downloaded some poker clients to see what the games were like nowadays.
I ended up getting into it, signing up for upswing for 1 month and then RIO for 1 month (both good, but as you'll see below, probably not worth it given the state of the games).
I started in 2020 with a $150 deposit, and after ~70k hands it's sitting at $1300.
But the games are tough. I mean: insane. If you can't bet 25NL - don't feel bad. 25NL now is like 600NL used to be in 2006 and I'm not kidding. It's f'ing ridiculous. In 2006 if someone 3bet they had AK, AA, KK, or were a maniac.
I watched hours of upswing and RIO, and I can't believe the level these guys are teaching at. Literally no one was talking about blockers in 2006 at midstakes. Like, if someone had said I should vary call/bluff based on the fact that my hand held a busted flush draw I would have thought they were some weirdo ASD rainman. People probably did that at high stakes but they didn't talk about it.
Now, people seriously raise the question of whether the NL500 zoom is the toughest game on the planet, and it probably is! That is crazy! I was **** compared to good players, and I beat NL400 (non-zoom admittedly), for higher rates than the all but the very best players seem to beat NL500z!
Games in 2006/07
Let's talk about winrates. We used to measure winrates in "pokertracker big bets", which were 2x blinds. So if you played NL400 (I did), beat the game for 4ptbb/100 (I did), before rakeback (which I also got at ~50% on absolutepoker (lol) with bonuses + rakeback when rake was lower than it is now (!)), it meant that pre-rakeback I was winning at what people call 8bb/100 now. And then I got prolly 1.5bb/100 from rakeback as well.
I don't have my old pt database, but I have a saved old forum post when I "retired" (finished university, had 3 breakeven months at the 2007 games (lol), and got a professional job).
Over the 2 years I played an average of 14 hours a week, and won (with rakeback and bonuses) a total of $99 400 USD, for an average of $68 USD per hour.
Anyone remember that guy EMPIREMAKER2 or whatever his name was? Dude had played 100k hands at something like a 7ptbb/100 winrate (that is, 14bb/100) at NL$1000. Sure run hot but come on!
Games in 2020 and why it doesn't make sense to start poker now
Let's say the high point of poker for all but the very very best is the NL500zoom game. Let's say you can get 1k hands in per hour, and with bonuses, your winrate is 2bb/100. From my understanding, this is a very solid winrate at this game. That is 2 x 5 x 10 = $100 USD per hour.
That is pathetic. You would have to have immense natural talent, insane dedication, and huge grinding to build a massive bankroll to be rolled for it, and your reward is $100USD per hour?
Reality check: by the time you get to NL500zoom, it's probably harder than it is now, and the new game will be NL200zoom. Maybe you beat that for 4bb/100, and now your hourly rate is $80USD/hour. And what about next year?
In 2006/07, people talked about the good old days of 2004. In 2011, they were talking about 2007. In 2014, they were talking about pre-black friday. Now people hark back to 2014.
In 2025 they'll be talking about how easy the games were in 2020. If they're not it's because widespread real-time solvers have actually destroyed the game and it's just not being played.
Look at Doug Polk. Dude is a legend but is struggling coming back playing NL400 HU(down 30 buyins?) to train for his match against DNegs.
Mikka Anttonen put it well when he said (here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2POAdRI31vo) that it just doesn't make sense to start a poker career
Conclusion
I brokeven after bonuses/rakeback at my cashgames (NL10 to NL50) in 2020, but won a few MTTs which gave me all my profit. I'm not going to be playing any/much more online poker but I'll leave the money online in case I want to play some MTTs in a few weeks.
My suggestion:
- If you like poker as a hobby, softest online games are low stakes MTTs, so maybe fire up two of those if you're keen to play some poker.
- Seems like live poker is way easier. Home games are still fun.
- Cash games might be good for you if:
You live in a very poor country and incomes in the local economy are low AND
You are exceptionally smart and dedicated AND
You can't emigrate AND
You have exceptional mental strength/health and won't suffer the burnout all others would.
Anyway, hope this helps someone.