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Old 07-16-2012, 02:08 AM   #1
sluggger5x
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**2 Key U.S Senators want to pass a poker bill by the end of 2012: Official Sweat/Discussion**

I wanted to open up this thread for a layman’s discussion to help everyone realistically know what could happen to online poker at the end of this year. Basically, as has happened in the past, there is a legitimate possibility that the U.S. Congress will try to pass a federal bill to regulate online poker when Congress ends its current session at the end of December. (see cliffs)

There is a variety of speculation on the chances of this happening from highly respected 2+2 posters ranging from less than 10% to near 100% chance and arguments for both sides are legitimate. So I hope everyone can take a levelheaded look at all the facts and stay informed.

I think the chances of this thing happening in mere months have been rapidly increasing given recent developments (again see cliffs). While I can’t give you the an exact percentage on what the chances are, I can pretty much guarantee that there will be at least a sweat at the end of this year.


There are no stupid questions if you do not follow politics closely. Please do yourself and the community a favor and ask away. There are many sharp 2+2ers who have an eye on this thing that can break it down for us all. (Skallagrim, Karak, TheEngineer, Berge20, PokerXanadu, DonkeyQuixote just to name a few)

If at some point we put together an FAQ from responses I think that would be cool too.

Cliffs:
Quote:
December 2010: Harry Reid (one of the most powerful Senators in Washington) tries to make a deal with Senator Jon Kyl (powerful, long record of anti-gambling stance) to attach a poker bill in the lame duck Congress. It fails and the '09-'10 Congress finishes.

July 2011- Reid and Kyl write a joint letter that hints at a potential UIGEA 2 bill to regulate online poker and stop all other forms of online gambling meaning both get what they want out of the deal.

August 2011- Senator Reid vaguely says internet poker “will get done.”

November 2011- Rumors swirl that a “Reid/Kyl” poker bill will be introduced sometime this Congressional session (which ends December 2012)

January 2012- Senator Reid confirms that he is negotiating with Kyl for a federal online poker bill.

January 2012- Kyl confirms that the rumors are true and that a poker bill is “quite possible” by the end of 2012.

February 2012-Reid attempts to attach the poker bill to a payroll tax cut bill according to rumors. Rumors are confirmed but it fails for unknown reasons.


July 2012- Sources report that Reid and Kyl have reached an agreement and will try to pass a bill by the end of the year
As always and now more than ever please CONTACT YOUR LAWMAKERS! There is no need to specifically ask them to make some secret poker attachment, but just tell them you want regulated online poker in the United States.


Last edited by sluggger5x; 07-16-2012 at 02:31 AM.
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Old 07-16-2012, 02:11 AM   #2
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Re: **2 Key U.S. Senators want to pass a poker bill by the end of 2012: Official Sweat/Discussi

I'll be here to answer questions as well

prefilled answer #1: 100%-- IF you make your voice heard with the rest of us through the PPA Daily Action Plan.

prefilled answer #2: it'll be amazing. everybody who was any good at poker before black Friday is gonna be a bona fide shark, and everybody who was a winner on black Friday will be a legend. a Titan, slaying his way through the battlefield, filling his pouch with more and more gold every day.

prefilled answer #3: the Daily Action Plan is hella easy, you can do it in bed while you're getting ****ed up (TESTED AND PROVEN), and the upshots if we succeed are tremendous.

Last edited by ScreaminAsian; 07-16-2012 at 02:19 AM.
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Old 07-16-2012, 02:19 AM   #3
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Re: **2 Key U.S Senators want to pass a poker bill by the end of 2012: Official Sweat/Discussio

1 time baby

thanks for the info
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Old 07-16-2012, 02:20 AM   #4
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Re: **2 Key U.S Senators want to pass a poker bill by the end of 2012: Official Sweat/Discussio

ETA for "cards in the air"? (your estimate based on this information)
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Old 07-16-2012, 02:26 AM   #5
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Re: **2 Key U.S Senators want to pass a poker bill by the end of 2012: Official Sweat/Discussio

Quote:
Originally Posted by Scansion View Post
ETA for "cards in the air"? (your estimate based on this information)
Now remember this is not close to done. If it fails this December it could take awhile. It has been a general estimate that once a bill is signed into law it would take 12-18 months until "cards are in the air." This could actually happen quicker since some states are getting systems in place that the federal government could duplicate and get games running quicker.


So I'd say if we bink it this December cards will be in the air early to mid 2014 but that we are getting wayyyy ahead of ourselves to think this way.
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Old 07-16-2012, 02:26 AM   #6
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Re: **2 Key U.S Senators want to pass a poker bill by the end of 2012: Official Sweat/Discussio

Quote:
Originally Posted by sluggger5x View Post
online poker at the end of this year.

100% chance

guarantee

Sounds like a lock.

j/k, thanks for the post.
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Old 07-16-2012, 02:28 AM   #7
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Re: **2 Key U.S Senators want to pass a poker bill by the end of 2012: Official Sweat/Discussio

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ce1ska View Post
Sounds like a lock.

j/k, thanks for the post.
haha. you scared me for a second making me think that was an actual quote of me.
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Old 07-16-2012, 02:41 AM   #8
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Re: **2 Key U.S Senators want to pass a poker bill by the end of 2012: Official Sweat/Discussio

any hint whether the USA will have a closed market or not ?
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Old 07-16-2012, 02:49 AM   #9
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Re: **2 Key U.S Senators want to pass a poker bill by the end of 2012: Official Sweat/Discussio

Quote:
Originally Posted by Alienatu View Post
any hint whether the USA will have a closed market or not ?
It is almost certain that the US market would be closed to the rest of the world for some time. Probably a few years. Most expect that in the long run international players will be able to play on regulated US sites but the time frame for this is grey. Best case scenario imo is that international players can play on the sites a year after cards are in the air.


Others can chime in on this.
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Old 07-16-2012, 02:53 AM   #10
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Re: **2 Key U.S Senators want to pass a poker bill by the end of 2012: Official Sweat/Discussio

Yeah we've had more sweats than a fat greaseball in a men's club sauna. Each time, though, it ends up feeling more like a hot shower in the Penn State locker room. Before everyone starts getting excited and having dollar sign hallucinations, I'll warn you that the best approach is probably to be a depressive realist. Also, listen to DQ if he posts in this thread. Also, Berge and Karak possibly have access to inside info.
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Old 07-16-2012, 03:47 AM   #11
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Re: **2 Key U.S Senators want to pass a poker bill by the end of 2012: Official Sweat/Discussio

Quote:
Originally Posted by spacegod View Post
Yeah we've had more sweats than a fat greaseball in a men's club sauna. Each time, though, it ends up feeling more like a hot shower in the Penn State locker room. Before everyone starts getting excited and having dollar sign hallucinations, I'll warn you that the best approach is probably to be a depressive realist. Also, listen to DQ if he posts in this thread. Also, Berge and Karak possibly have access to inside info.
very funny Cheers.
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Old 07-16-2012, 03:53 AM   #12
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Re: **2 Key U.S Senators want to pass a poker bill by the end of 2012: Official Sweat/Discussio

Gotta love the USA. Our citizens can't play on sites regulated in other countries, but if you guys are lucky we'll let you play on the sites we regulate eventually. SUCK IT WORLD!
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Old 07-16-2012, 04:19 AM   #13
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Re: **2 Key U.S Senators want to pass a poker bill by the end of 2012: Official Sweat/Discussio

ONE TIME!

I don't needa win the Main Event, but I do need the US market playing online again.

thanks for the excitment and the cliffs, slugger.
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Old 07-16-2012, 04:31 AM   #14
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Re: **2 Key U.S Senators want to pass a poker bill by the end of 2012: Official Sweat/Discussio

I've always wondered what poker would be like if regulated in the USA....
Would every table we sit at, ever penny we make and leave with, be tracked for taxes? Every transfer, etc etc show up on taxes?

Also, I don't trust Harry Reid....he's bought and paid for by Harrah's and is total scum
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Old 07-16-2012, 04:32 AM   #15
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Re: **2 Key U.S Senators want to pass a poker bill by the end of 2012: Official Sweat/Discussio

Just posting to subscribe to the thread. Would be so awesome
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Old 07-16-2012, 04:33 AM   #16
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Re: **2 Key U.S Senators want to pass a poker bill by the end of 2012: Official Sweat/Discussio

Please God one time! I can't stand Merge and need either Stars, FTP or some other site. Online poker is the pits in the U.S right now and this would be great if it gets passed.
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Old 07-16-2012, 04:33 AM   #17
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Re: **2 Key U.S Senators want to pass a poker bill by the end of 2012: Official Sweat/Discussio

One time!
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Old 07-16-2012, 04:43 AM   #18
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Re: **2 Key U.S Senators want to pass a poker bill by the end of 2012: Official Sweat/Discussio

Thanks for this thread OP and everybody else involved.

Wanna use my one time, but I'll be honest, used it here..

February 2012-Reid attempts to attach the poker bill to a payroll tax cut bill according to rumors. Rumors are confirmed but it fails for unknown reasons.

but we poker players have many 1 times so gonna use it again...1 time!
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Old 07-16-2012, 04:46 AM   #19
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Re: **2 Key U.S Senators want to pass a poker bill by the end of 2012: Official Sweat/Discussio

I have 2 questions.

- Will it be Interstate or Intrastate Poker?
- Will Pokerstars be able to re-enter the US Market
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Old 07-16-2012, 04:52 AM   #20
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Re: **2 Key U.S Senators want to pass a poker bill by the end of 2012: Official Sweat/Discussio

If a Reid/Kyl bill manages to pass the Senate, what reason do we have to believe the House of Representatives will even vote on it before the 112th Congress ends on 1/3/13?
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Old 07-16-2012, 05:16 AM   #21
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Re: **2 Key U.S Senators want to pass a poker bill by the end of 2012: Official Sweat/Discussio

So, looking at the latest thread . . . Has there been any recent indication that they will actually try to to get it done by the end of 2012?
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Old 07-16-2012, 05:19 AM   #22
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Re: **2 Key U.S Senators want to pass a poker bill by the end of 2012: Official Sweat/Discussio

Quote:
Originally Posted by yob- View Post
So, looking at the latest thread . . . Has there been any recent indication that they will actually try to to get it done by the end of 2012?
most recently, an article in a very credible industry newsource (GamblingCompliance) confirmed our suspicions that reid and kyl have come to a compromise on the internet gambling issue, that includes regulating and taxing legal online poker.

kyl is leaving office after the session is over at the end of this year. harry reid may not be senate majority leader after the end of this year. these two men, the most powerful men in the senate (majority leader and minority dude-that-threatens-to-filibuster-anything-the-democrats-try-to-do), may choose to exert their power on these issues while they still can... before the end of this year.
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Old 07-16-2012, 05:21 AM   #23
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Re: **2 Key U.S Senators want to pass a poker bill by the end of 2012: Official Sweat/Discussio

How does Jon Kyl retiring affect this? Are outgoing Senate leaders usually able to cash in the favors they've piled up or are they seen as people who won't have future favors to give?

When we see "end of 2012", that means during the lame duck session after the election, right?

Even if the Senate can get something through, how do things look in the House?
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Old 07-16-2012, 05:24 AM   #24
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Re: **2 Key U.S Senators want to pass a poker bill by the end of 2012: Official Sweat/Discussio

Quote:
Originally Posted by idun215 View Post
I have 2 questions.

- Will it be Interstate or Intrastate Poker?
- Will Pokerstars be able to re-enter the US Market
1. I believe this is the federal bill that would include states unless they opt-out

2. Def not immediately... Reid is a NV guy and I'm sure it includes a nice blackout to ensure the Vegas Casinos interest. However, the result of the stars DOJ negotiations could have a lot to do with it. The word is that the the main guy from stars is trying to buy immunity and a way back into the US market via its recent negotiations

Also, remember that Stars had a deal signed with Wynn pre-black friday and they pulled out because of the legal issues. FTP had a deal with the Fertitas (UFC Owners) and there are countless software partnerships with casinos in states so maybe a possible software merger could happen.

But you will not be playing International Pokerstars players right away regardless. The best you could hope for us a nice license deal with a US company.
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Old 07-16-2012, 05:29 AM   #25
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Re: **2 Key U.S Senators want to pass a poker bill by the end of 2012: Official Sweat/Discussio

In b4 this doesn't happen
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