10.9? ha, no

Wind assistance was covered in one of the Tweets. Maximum tailwind of 1.9 m/s, which is even stricter than the 2.0 for setting records.

Who is David Joseph?

Seems like a tough bet, but Koon is no dummy. That or he's so rich from crypto he can afford to be a dummy.

David Joseph is a nobody on twitter. This bet isn't real nor happening. At least not from that guy. Koon just wanted to flex his 2mm bet in the face of some nobody knowing he wouldn't take it. I hope some other person will take Jason up on this and teach him some humility.

He probably would have if he didn't (presumably) quit track after college, his PB was done in 2006 at either 21 or 22, he still had a handful more years to improve his PB. I would assume that Koon has a pretty good idea what his peak would have been if had put everything into track for those years after college and is using that unrealized potential peak metric to gauge what he could reach at his current age. Too many people are assuming that 10.86 is the best he could have ever achieved in his life, this is wrong.

Given that he or any other sprinter could get injured in a given year/season while training and make it impossible for them to train or complete for an extended length of time I certainly wouldn't bet it at 1:1, but feel fairly confident that if he was able to go the full year "healthy" that he would get the 10.9.

I guess. It seems slightly optimistic to think most sophmores that are sub-11 seconds can improve by .25 seconds with 2 more years of training. That is a very good outcome. But its still a huge amount of effort to actually reach that peak, so i'm not really convinced its that big of a deal even if Koontz thinks he could have run .1 - .15 seconds faster than his PR the same year. Running a perfect race is also really hard, though not sure it applies the same way to the 100m as longer races. If you specialize in the 100m i don't think you should leave that much time on the table.

10.9 seconds is roughly the cutoff betwern a D1 and D2 scholarship going in as a freshman btw.

This is a fair point. Male sprinters don't tend to peak in their early 20s, so he certainly had the potential to improve on that PR had he stayed in track & field.

It's also worth nothing that 10.86 is certainly fast compared to the general adult population, but it's not exactly world-class speed, either. For reference, as of this post, 10.86 is tied for 161st in NCAA Division II (Koon's level of collegiate athletics). In Division III, it's tied for 69th. In Division I, 10.86 is not in the top 500, and that's with many of the conference championships still underway. In the Big West Conference meet, which I'm covering this weekend, 10.86 would have snared the last qualifying spot out of today's prelim heats. In other words, it's a very doable time for any decent collegiate sprinter.

But still, from everything I can gather, Koon has not trained nor competed as a sprinter in a long, long time. On top of that, any sort of injury – like the one that sidelined him while at WVWC – means he loses the bet.

Thus, I still don't like his side, even he might be the single most likely professional poker player to run a sub-11 100.

change the thread title to "David Joseph bets Jason Koon 5mil he cant run 100m under 10.9"

Usain Bolt set the world record for the 100m when he was 22.

Jason Koon is talking out of his ass saying he could run a 10.9. Straight delusional. Trust me I know talking out your ass when I see it, I do it all the time. I would bet my life against a dozen doughnuts, that's how confident I am this won't happen.

I do hope he tries it though would be interesting to see how close he would get.

Great analysis! Best post I've seen explaining why this is very unlikely, assuming no funnies in the arrangement.

With that said, how much of this do you think is just because people quit competing at a certain age, once they drop off a few tenths or lose their motivation? So there's actually a ton of people with a PB of 10.2 who could do it in 10.4 in their late thirties, but don't because that's not going to pay the bills?

Reason I ask is because I used to work with this guy:
http://bournvilleharriers.org.uk/rac...euro-champion/

Whille Rob is really quick by regular standards and really quick for his age, in his own words he was nowhere near good enough for elite athletics when younger. He said the only reason he was an age group champion is because the elites just don't bother once they can't compete at the top. That and years of injuries from training so hard for so long.

Minimal chance he makes it, he is in a age group where every part of him is declining and some parts have for years. I dont think its ideal to be that big if you want to be a sprinter, too much weight to carry.

There is probably not a pro footballer that runs at 10.9 lol. And many of these guys are tall, slank and have been running constantly since they were kids. According to this article on quora Gareth Bale ran at 11.4s. And i somehow doubt this was super heavy regulated in terms of wind and things.

Why? That's very misleading. Current one is much more accurate.

That’s really unfair Rick. Someone asked Koon what he thought he could do, he said 10.9, and David Joseph immediately said no chance, offered to escrow 5mm tomorrow etc, Koon didn’t bite at all at first, Joseph persisted, then Koon said he would give it a go for 2m and Joseph immediately shat his pants and tried to renegotiate a small charity bet. David Joseph is the pathetic one here.

That obviously has a lot to do with it. In the parallel universe where a 10.86 as a sophomore let’s you go pro and you do that for the next 15 years, there’s little doubt you can do a 10.90 at age 36 if you stay healthy.

The vast majority of college athletes are busy with work and starting a family in their mid to late twenties. Raw talent and previous ability is only part of the equation, time commitment is as important or even more important, depending on the type of sports. Mid to long distance triathlon and ultra distance running are two examples where the most competitive amateur age groups are usually 35-39 and 40-44 because younger people just don’t have 15+ hours/week to train.

For American Football, DK Metcalf just ran a 10.37. For other-people’s-football aka soccer, the youth training on an international level is just vastly different to the US where people do all kinds of sports in high school and some even in college. If you want to become a pro soccer player in Europe, you train soccer 5ish times a week starting at relatively young age. There’s really not that much space for other stuff like track & field.

Justin Gatlin is also a known drug cheat.

No.

Koon's body may be capable of running 10.90, but it is very unlikely his body can endure the training needed to get there.

Does JK get to choose the venue?

Yeah I agree. No shot he has, whatsoever.

The magic barrier is 10 seconds. If you can make it under 10 sec youre world class. Meaning yourre one of a few that can do it. 11 seconds is close.

Usain bolt at 17y old, 9,5 sec world record.



Btw bolt is built for speed, his body is crazy, he can do 45 mph, he reminds me of a greyhound dog,
I very much doubt koon can stay under 12 secs.
AND he was probably using enhancements, so did Griffin, the fastest woman in history (10.5 secs)

Yea freshman, not 36. He probably wants to get back into training, but 10.9 not gonna happen imo. if he stays under 12 good.

I wonder if sprinting is Koon's primary exercise and, as a hobby, he works on his form to improve. That's the only way I can see Koon considering this bet.

Running under 11 in college and thinking you can do it again 15 years later even with 1 year to train... no imo.

So yea, Im not a runner per se. But my gut is telling me its possible for Jason. But at a price of his health. You dont just train running at 36. You pay a price for it. Jason, why do you think pro athletes are complaining about pain after retiring? This stuff wears on your body bro. If you want to train hit me up. And do some softer exercise besides full blast running. Yeah, its fun but you gotta be prepared for it if you do it. I dont see any pro track and field at 36, do you?

And you got another problem. You are not Black. Look at the rio vid above. There is no white guy competing.

And while youre at it, do me a favor and compare prime mike tyson at 18 and then at 36. You see the difference? He was unstoppable at 18 but very stoppable at 36. Its called biology. At 36 youre pretty much toast in any sport that requires much power. Athletes at this age do much better at endurance type sports such as marathons, surfing (where skill and experience kicks in) but not at short distances.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PtL7uCUXzIc

Freak of nature or juiced up. 17y old?

I could go on and on about this. Imo it all comes down to hormone production, which slows down after the age of 25? Muscle becomes less due to less testosteron.



" 2nd fastest to usain bolt, injury ridden"

Put your Bayesian hat on. If you were told Jason Koon runs 10.9 100m at age 36, your response would probably be "no big deal, 1.4 sec slower than WR, he ran that fast in college, not super old, stays in shape...".