Quote:
Originally Posted by Original Position
I'm confused as to what your argument is here. The trade deficit is irrelevant to debt considerations. GDP growth is what's important.
I agree, it's not enough, and underfunded pension plans are a problem for Americans, although not enough to think the US economy will stop growing. Also only tangentially related to whether 70% of Americans are struggling to get by because they don't have enough money.
I expect interest rates to rise a bit over the next few years from the very low level they've been at recently, but probably still remain below historical norms. Pension plans have relatively little to do with interest rates on the national debt.
Those are the easiest points , I’ll get to others later .
The trade deficit is important because how can u have higher gdp growth if you don’t produce anything more ?
So why you have a high trade deficit ?
Because all over the world it cost much less to produce stuff ( old US job been transfer overseas).
Your point about pension plan , unless I’m mistaken, was an answer about Americans are fine with their income because 65% had a pension fund .
My point is with such already problematic pensions funds , which will grow higher in the future , isn’t a good argument to think the income are sufficient because that asset (pension funds) aren’t 100% reliable anymore .
There is a wall coming .
You can forget about interest rates going higher , they can’t !
They are close to its maximum already .
Hint :look back in 2018 when the fed mini raise interest rates (only 1% in total) , look what happened .
Stocks market fell around 20% and the fed had to back up and lowered again interest rates .
And that is with a lower debt btw .
You already have about 20% of zombies company in the US , meaning they can’t even pay the interest on their debts let alone , their debts ...
The private sector is crumbling under debts , not just the government.
Nvm hiking Interest rates , it would crash down down evrything .
Interest rates are here to stay low for a long time .
What does that mean for pensions plans ?
Well historically , for pension plans to work you need a lot higher interest rates to grow their capital to be able to pay the benefits of its members .
Interest without risk was the government treasuries, the US are so badly place now they can’t even pay decent interest for his debts holders .
That is how weak the US are ....and how badly the pension funds are . They will have to take much higher risk and probably cutting the benefits to get by .