Will U.S. Voters continue to predominantly vote for Democrat rather than for Republican candidates?

Will coming generations of our U.S. voters continue to predominantly more vote for Democrat rather than for Republican presidents? Much more often than not, more recent Republican presidents were elected by the minority rather than the majority of USA voters and each year proportionally more voters voted for Democrats rather than for Republicans. Due to these political and demographic trends, will coming generations of our Electoral Colleges be predominantly Democratic rather than Republican?

Many voters are proponents for eliminating the Electoral College, but that doesn't seem to be a possibility for Republican Party's salvation. (Additionally, eliminating the Electoral College requires a constitutional amendment). Respectfully, Supposn

If a political party can't win elections, it will change.

Ye the idea that if Potus was elected with the popular vote then the vote would be the same is kinda absurd.

You try to win a race given the rules of the race, if the rules change you can change. That might include changing candidates and policy platforms (works for both parties).

Other thing of note (among many) that would change: voters in states where they know they don't matter at all currently (think people who lean republican in California in districts where even for congress there is no hope for them, or democrats in Mississippi) could be staying at home more than they would otherwise if all votes mattered.

But in general with different rules, things change.

They might change in ways people like more so it's still reasonable to ask to remove the EC and go to some standard popular vote counting, if you believe that would yield positive results for society. But it's simply absurd to think that would necessarily mean "democrats then win forever".

This question could have been asked in the 2024 Election thread.

If I had to guess I would say yes in the short term. The republican party is so radical now it seems had for someone who can win a primary to get over 50% of the vote. Which also makes it hard to win the general.

There is a work around that is already 75% percent of the way there.

The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC) is an agreement among a group of U.S. states and the District of Columbia to award all their electoral votes to whichever presidential ticket wins the overall popular vote in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The compact is designed to ensure that the candidate who receives the most votes nationwide is elected president, and it would come into effect only when it would guarantee that outcome. Introduced in 2006, as of January 2024 it has been adopted by sixteen states and the District of Columbia. These jurisdictions have 205 electoral votes, which is 38% of the Electoral College and 76% of the 270 votes needed to give the compact legal force.

Of the other US states that haven't passed it there are enough states with pending legislation on whether to join or not that if those states agreed the NPVIC would then be over the 270 Electoral College votes needed to take effect. And this would also be closely equal to having enough states for a constitutional amendment which as you said would be the most formal end game.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nation...0of%20Columbia.

The Democratic Party is the one who is so much more radical now with all their gender ideology, crt, DEI and “everyone who doesn’t agree with them is a racist” nonsense.

And we will all die in flames if we use oil

We have heard this one before...

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/4...party-1292731/

"The Republican Party is dead", or for that matter "the Democratic Party is dead", have both been repeated at various times throughout my adult life. There were points where one party seemed to be dominating the other, but at least in the last twenty years, it never lasted that long.

I'm not saying the Republic Party is dead since we do have an electoral college and the president isn't the only government position that exists, but since 1992, the Republican candidate for president has only won the popular vote once (W's second term in 2004). That's unlikely to change later this year, so that would make 32 years of this (though only 9 elections in that time). This doesn't seem like just a short-term fluctuation.

That misses it exactly. Republicans (particularly non college educated whites) are obsessed with culture war stuff. Trump and Desantis talk about it all the time. Biden doesn’t. It’s basically an admission from republicans that they can’t win on issues people actually care about, as evidenced by the 2022 midterms.

And it should be pointed out some of democrats recent strength comes from republicans nominating complete clowns in very winnable senate races in PA, AZ, GA. But it goes back to my original point; it’s kinda hard to win reputation primaries even in swing states without being a clown.

This. It's kind of silly to think that if one party starts losing every election, there won't be a shift in their policies.

And yet, the thread is still open.

I don't care either way, but I agree with you, and thought it was funny you noted that but didn't close the thread.

Republican candida

Because they organized to win often enough through domination of smaller states.

If the rule was "popular vote wins" they would organize differently (different candidates/platforms).

It's like saying, "if 3 point shots were worth 2, these teams x y z would never win NBA titles". Lol, if 3 point shots were worth 2 they will shoot differently.

I think you think you're disagreeing with me, but I explicitly acknowledged this in the beginning of my post already. I was answering the question of thread title and addressing the post I quoted.

To be more explicit, my post says that the Republican candidate losing the popular vote doesn't seem to me to be just a short-term fluctuation that is likely soon over. This doesn't, though, translate to me saying that the Republicans won't win presidential elections because, as I already said, the Electoral College does exist.

what do you think republicans would do to "organize differently" to win a popular vote? anything they do to lower the crazy and make them palatable for most of the population will alienate their base.

total votes would matter in that case, not "the base", they would just move to the center, and "the base" would suck it up (same for the democrats btw).

What is the base going to do, vote for the socialists?

Just check the french presidential elections, in the second round, a ton of people hating both candidates suck it up and vote what they consider the less tragic one.

Communists vote for Macron because "otherwise fascism wins" and republican MAGA people would vote for the technocratic "warmongering" person whod ared to say 12 weeks for abortion is fine, because otherwise the socialists would win and take their weapons.

I mean ideally sure

The Republican nominee has won the popular vote once in the last 8 elections, has held the office 12 years in that span and has been able to remake the Supreme Court to a 6-3 supermajority not even counting the remake of district courts

In the space of those 8 election cycles the party has gone further and further to the right because primaries being what they are and voting not being compulsory it’s always a matter of who’s maddest more than who the right person is

To that end every congressman and Senator fears being primaried into irrelevance more than they fear losing a general election so you have incumbents wading further into nonsensical culture war issues even if they have no appeal to the broader electorate. Currently the standing order is about self preservation over party over country. That being the case, you’re right in so much as you think the extremism we’re seeing is what a policy shift is

The culture war stuff is an issue that a lot of people care about which is why they talk about it. Most of them are middle class, college educated whites who live in the suburbs, have a family and are scared for their children. The loony lefts views on the culture war stuff are all over social media and they see their children being influenced by it. A lot of these peoples political views used to be in the center, but it is driving more and more of them to be conservatives. These middle class suburban families see the left as having zero family values anymore and will be the main factor they vote Republican.

It was in fact leftists who moved dramatically to the left, republicans are more moderate than they were in the 80s.

There is no arc of history, no "progress" in the sense of leftism having any moral dignity or superioty deserving of automatic approval.

Leftists go more radical every year, republicans stay fairly normal and after 20 years the crazy leftists call very normal event republicans extremists.

This should stop and the way to stop this is to say **** you to the whole narrative of radicals.

Biden can win exclusively because, unlike many other democrats, he doesn't play that game at all. He is a normal democrat with normal democrat positions from the 90s. Meaning he hates the parasites trespassing the border as much as every normal American. And he is very ready to sign a deal to treat them as they deserve, for example. He actually brags about that.

He also allows drilling in Alaska and want buy into the green bullshit. He has to play to his base, but we all know he doesn't give a **** about the "climate".

That's why he can win

this is like the forum version of the "you're making me be a nazi" meme. lol.


they cant win a popular vote because they have no other policy other than bigoted bullshit with a side of tax cuts for the ultrawealthy donors. and it's not popular

Sure

Bush won college educated whites by double digits. Clinton/Biden both beat Trump by double digits among college educated whites. There is no demo slicing you can do to get it to where most of the culture warriors have a college education or live in suburbs. Hell, the splits on finishing high school probably aren't great for these sheep. If Republicans were a rural/suburban party they would get ln the Obama 2008 popular vote regularly. They haven't come close in 40 years even before the brain drain.

Clinton and Biden didn't both beat Trump by double digits among college educated whites.

Clinton lost them marginally, Biden won them marginally

Source is a very anti trump one , CNN

https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/...lls-2016-2020/