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What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"?

08-28-2023 , 10:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LirvA
Jesus Christ why is this thread about Michelle Obama and does she or does she not have a penis
some of the dumbest people on the internet are on this forum. just completely obsessed with hating a successful black woman.
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-28-2023 , 10:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunyain
I can't speak to her biological sex, because I have never seen her DNA profile, but I have seen people post pictures of Michelle as a young woman in response to allegations she grew up male. But for the allegations she has never been pregnant, nothing.

Again, even if you think it is just garbage, I hope your realize there is an entire right wing information ecosystem that tens of millions of Americans are exposed to. And if you intentionally silo yourself to never be exposed to it, your understanding of the world isn't going to be as complete as it probably should be.
The existence of a right wing disinformation ecosystem isn't a justification for you dumping that ecosystem into this thread under the guise of educating us about the ecosystem.

Further posts on this specific topic are not welcome and may result in deletion or tempbans.
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-28-2023 , 11:11 AM
If Biden knows 100% in his heart that he can’t do another 4 years, he couldn’t possibly tell the public with 516 days left as president. I don’t think enough people understand that.

If Trump isn’t able to run, I’m confident that Biden will not either. Also the whole going to jail thing with Trump…

Therefore, I’m pretty confident that neither will be the 2024 presidential candidates.

-RS
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-28-2023 , 11:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rococo
The existence of a right wing disinformation ecosystem isn't a justification for you dumping that ecosystem into this thread under the guise of educating us about the ecosystem.

Further posts on this specific topic are not welcome and may result in deletion or tempbans.
Rococo for mod.

Oh, wait...

Also, note to self, must remember that the correct term is "disinformation", not "demonstrable horseshit".

Last edited by d2_e4; 08-28-2023 at 11:24 AM. Reason: -
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-28-2023 , 11:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by uke_master
I'm always amused how every time DS asks other people to estimate a probability he never tell us his estimate. Hmmmm.
Have no idea what you are implying by "hmmmm". In this case, I was interested in other people's thought processes, not the actual subject matter.
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-28-2023 , 11:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jjjou812

But he is definitely more Dwight than Michael.
Different Michael but close enough

Quote:
Originally Posted by caseIIclosed
I would take out every loan I could on everything I own to bet on him losing. It would be the easiest money in history.
Your certainty is reassuring but there still remains worry about him widening the Overton window to let more of the crazy in
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-28-2023 , 11:41 AM
Now that the republican primary is heating up, no one is talking about him. He was just a distraction for bored reporters and people who hate democrats. RFK was never a real thing.
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-28-2023 , 11:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by uke_master
I'm always amused how every time DS asks other people to estimate a probability he never tell us his estimate. Hmmmm.

David Sklansky is a trend starter, not a follower

On the subject of Sklansky, does anyone else sort of commonly think they see him randomly throughout their home towns, or is that just me? I swear I've seen David Sklansky multiple times in central Oklahoma throughout the years. I actually saw him driving through a walmart parking lot a couple months ago.
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-28-2023 , 11:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wazz
Different Michael but close enough



Your certainty is reassuring but there still remains worry about him widening the Overton window to let more of the crazy in

The crazy doesn't actually resonate with voters, though. Like over 80% of Americans got vaccinated, this is red meat for fringe morons but not anyone else.

Republicans got lucky in 2016 with this kind of crazy thanks to a historically incompetent Democratic party. It's certainly not a winning play moving forward as Boomers get replaced by voters with basic information literacy.
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-28-2023 , 11:51 AM
Jesus Christ even the rational ones forget about what Russia did to put Trump in the white house
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-28-2023 , 12:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ReliableSource
If Biden knows 100% in his heart that he can’t do another 4 years, he couldn’t possibly tell the public with 516 days left as president. I don’t think enough people understand that.

If Trump isn’t able to run, I’m confident that Biden will not either. Also the whole going to jail thing with Trump…

Therefore, I’m pretty confident that neither will be the 2024 presidential candidates.
Legacy is important to presidents. A president picking a vice president that goes on to be president is simply another feather in that president's legacy. Biden could stack the deck in Harris' favor and give her a head start.

Ladybruin is a 2+2 poster that is a friend of mine and floated the idea I'm about to post. She is currently on vacation and I'm not trying to steal her idea, but just relay it in her absence.

RS, in your scenario where Biden knows he doesn't have the heart to serve 4 more years, what Biden could do is run for re-election with the confidence that he won last time by a 7 million popular vote margin and 74 electoral college margin. And then after Biden wins re-election he resigns at some point thereby handing the presidency to Harris. Harris becomes president, the American people get a chance to see Harris as president and Harris years later gets to run in a future general election as the incumbent president. And here is the twist that Ladybruin posted about before, if Biden serves half his term plus one day, then Harris would not lose her eligibility to seek 2 full terms of her own. Someone can be elected twice if they haven't served more than half of another president's term. Therefore, someone can be president 4 years plus 4 years plus 2 years (minus 1 day) for a total of 10 years minus 1 day.

If Biden in his heart know he doesn't want to serve another 4 years, I could see Biden running for re-election and then gifting Harris the presidency by Biden resigning.
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-28-2023 , 12:33 PM
They said that would happen if he got elected the first time and it hasn't happened, so it's pretty dumb to think that will happen after his reelection.
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-28-2023 , 12:47 PM
I think you guys speculating Biden may choose not to run or may run and immediately retire are all severally discounting a potential strong motivation for Biden to run and stay in office as long as possible, and that is to keep himself and Hunter out of prison. I think this is also a very strong motivation for Trump running.

You all live in a world where the laptop doesn't exist and there is no possibility any of the intelligence documenting Biden's possible corruption is true. However, if it is true (and possibly even if it isn't) there may be a strong motivation for him to stay in office to influence the DOJ to keep further evidence from coming to light.
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-28-2023 , 12:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by d2_e4
Rococo for mod.

Oh, wait...

Also, note to self, must remember that the correct term is "disinformation", not "demonstrable horseshit".
This is actually important, because "disinformation" can and often does include things that are true (or at least have not been proven false), whereas horseshit implies this is something which is obviously known to be false.

For example, at one point in 2020 when the entire narrative was that Covid had a 3.5% fatality rate, and Trump responded that most of the evidence indicated the fatality rate was well below 1%, the entire establishment accused him of spreading harmful disinformation. And the fact he was proven correct isn't relevant at all.
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-28-2023 , 12:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LirvA
They said that would happen if he got elected the first time and it hasn't happened, so it's pretty dumb to think that will happen after his reelection.
Who is these "they"? That is dumb. I doubt many thought Biden having been elected president wouldn't serve a full first term.

I am replying to RS' post where Biden in his heart knows he has no interest in serving another term. In that if-then scenario, Biden running and handing off the presidency is a possibility. Winning by 7+ million popular vote and getting 300+ electoral votes in no ****ing joke. The top tier of presidents include the ones who won twice. Him knowing he can win again is very different from him wanting to serve another 4 years. He could run again, win again and then drop the mic and walk off stage.

Last edited by klem1234; 08-28-2023 at 01:01 PM.
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-28-2023 , 01:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunyain
I think you guys speculating Biden may choose not to run or may run and immediately retire are all severally discounting a potential strong motivation for Biden to run and stay in office as long as possible, and that is to keep himself and Hunter out of prison. I think this is also a very strong motivation for Trump running.

You all live in a world where the laptop doesn't exist and there is no possibility any of the intelligence documenting Biden's possible corruption is true. However, if it is true (and possibly even if it isn't) there may be a strong motivation for him to stay in office to influence the DOJ to keep further evidence from coming to light.
Most of us live in the real world where we know nothing has connected hunter's criminality to joe. So we're not worried about right wing fever dream stuff.
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-28-2023 , 01:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by caseIIclosed
Most of us live in the real world where we know nothing has connected hunter's criminality to joe. So we're not worried about right wing fever dream stuff.
Is that the same world where people refer to the first family using their first names or a different world?
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-28-2023 , 01:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by klem1234
Who is these "they"? That is dumb. I doubt many thought Biden having been elected president wouldn't serve a full first term.

Uh, republicans all across America ...
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-28-2023 , 01:13 PM
Swing voters are just super animated about sending money to Hawaii and Hunter Biden owning a laptop, this needs to be the centerpiece of the campaign.
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-28-2023 , 01:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by caseIIclosed
Most of us live in the real world where we know nothing has connected hunter's criminality to joe. So we're not worried about right wing fever dream stuff.
Who do you suppose "The Big Guy" is Hunter was holding 10% for from the infamous email. And what happens if one of the 5 people attached to the email, including the man who sent the email, are forced to testify by a more aggressive DOJ or Congress who it is?
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-28-2023 , 01:22 PM
Anyways, the point is IMO the main motivation for both Biden and Trump running for President, despite advanced age and failing health, may very well be to protect themselves legally. And I think this says something about where our politics are in 2023.
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-28-2023 , 01:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunyain
I think you guys speculating Biden may choose not to run or may run and immediately retire are all severally discounting a potential strong motivation for Biden to run and stay in office as long as possible, and that is to keep himself and Hunter out of prison. I think this is also a very strong motivation for Trump running.

You all live in a world where the laptop doesn't exist and there is no possibility any of the intelligence documenting Biden's possible corruption is true. However, if it is true (and possibly even if it isn't) there may be a strong motivation for him to stay in office to influence the DOJ to keep further evidence from coming to light.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rococo
The existence of a right wing disinformation ecosystem isn't a justification for you dumping that ecosystem into this thread under the guise of educating us about the ecosystem.

Further posts on this specific topic are not welcome and may result in deletion or tempbans.
Doesn't even make ten posts....
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-28-2023 , 01:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunyain
Who do you suppose "The Big Guy" is Hunter was holding 10% for from the infamous email. And what happens if one of the 5 people attached to the email, including the man who sent the email, are forced to testify by a more aggressive DOJ or Congress who it is?
I am going to need more than the claim of a crackhead to consider the chances that joe is at risk of criminal charges.

I don't know. Nothing has happened so far, so I assume nothing.
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-28-2023 , 02:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunyain
This is actually important, because "disinformation" can and often does include things that are true (or at least have not been proven false), whereas horseshit implies this is something which is obviously known to be false.
Dude, "horseshit" is basically the fiat currency of the right wing derposphere, no matter how you try and spin it.
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-28-2023 , 02:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunyain
This is actually important, because "disinformation" can and often does include things that are true (or at least have not been proven false), whereas horseshit implies this is something which is obviously known to be false.

For example, at one point in 2020 when the entire narrative was that Covid had a 3.5% fatality rate, and Trump responded that most of the evidence indicated the fatality rate was well below 1%, the entire establishment accused him of spreading harmful disinformation. And the fact he was proven correct isn't relevant at all.
The wordsmithing you are trying to do here doesn't really apply in this situation because the issue you were discussing clearly fell into the "obvious horseshit" category.

Last edited by Rococo; 08-28-2023 at 03:24 PM.
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote

      
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