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What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"?

08-27-2023 , 04:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by formula72
We've seen large fields early on a where a lot of the candidates took turns with brief moments of huge popularity that fizzled out pretty quick. Desantis could re emerge and fizzle out twice more before the election simply from a handful of statements, flip flops, or his opponents actions, as well as the political climate changing. Obviously, there is no shortage of avenues for Trump to collapse.
Yeah, I just think that's unlikely given how strong the aversion was to him as soon as he started trying to run. Even if Trump drops out, I don't like his chances.
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-27-2023 , 05:25 PM
Both Biden and Trump are old. There is small chance that either of them could have health problems that prevent them from running.
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-27-2023 , 09:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by d2_e4
I highly doubt any voter questioning the maternity of Michelle Obama's children is really going to be in her target demographic, were she to run.

Also, I'm not a biologist like you so correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe maternity can be established fairly easily by observing from which woman the baby physically emerged.
Yes, you would be correct, with surrogacy being an obvious exception. That being said I didn't observe either of these physical emergences, and don't know anyone that did either. So I cant speak to whose womb the emergences emerged from.

I will say when right wing twitter says things that are patently false (which you would be shocked to find out does happen on occasion) they tend to get corrected very quickly, in replies or in community notes. And I have never seen anyone show any evidence Michelle actually got pregnant or gave birth, which would one would think would be pretty easy to do with pictures of a pregnant Michelle Obama.

In fact, several right wing personalities have offered very large bounties (5 figures I believe) for anyone that can come up with a picture of Michelle Obama being pregnant, and AFAIK there has never been any takers.
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-27-2023 , 09:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunyain
I will say when right wing twitter says things that are patently false (which you would be shocked to find out does happen on occasion) they tend to get corrected very quickly, in replies or in community notes.
I would indeed be shocked to learn that when right wingers say things that are patently false they get corrected very quickly by their own brethren. Mostly because of all the you know, patently false conspiracy theories that the whole right wing movement seems to be based on these days.

As to this specific issue, I'm not familiar with the genesis of this theory, but pray tell, why and to whom does the maternity of Michelle Obama's kids matter? If it comes out that the kids are adopted, for example, what difference does it make to anything related to politics?
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-27-2023 , 09:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rococo
Are you happy that garbage like that is in your twitter feed?
The "garbage" is not always going to be wrong, and the politically correct narrative isn't always going to be right. I think it is important to get exposure to different perspectives and then use deductive reasoning (and community notes) to try to figure out what is really going on.

For example when the establishment says that differences in incarceration are due to systemic racism and show no data, but "garbage" sources says incarceration rates are actually fairly consistent with crime rates and show a whole bunch of data to support their argument; then one can use deductive reasoning to determine which argument is more correct. Provided they actually allow themselves to be exposed to the "garbage" in the first place that is.

On the other hand, when it comes to mRNA vaccinations, unless there is some long term negative side effects down the line we haven't seen yet, at this point the data is pretty clear that the establishment is generally correct and the "garbage" incorrect, and vaccination has overall been protective, although in children the disease itself is so generally mild I doubt you are making a big -EV health decision either way.

Last edited by Dunyain; 08-27-2023 at 10:05 PM.
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-27-2023 , 10:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by d2_e4

As to this specific issue, I'm not familiar with the genesis of this theory, but pray tell, why and to whom does the maternity of Michelle Obama's kids matter? If it comes out that the kids are adopted, for example, what difference does it make to anything related to politics?
It doesn't have any direct relation to politics. But when I notice a pattern of the Obamas' being very private and not wanting to address all the right wing twitter intrusion, then I can deduce that this might be a very strong reason Michelle may not want to get into politics, where it would be much harder to ignore.
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-27-2023 , 10:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunyain
In fact, several right wing personalities have offered very large bounties (5 figures I believe) for anyone that can come up with a picture of Michelle Obama being pregnant, and AFAIK there has never been any takers.
I'll photoshop a picture for 99 grand if that is what is being asked.
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-27-2023 , 10:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by d2_e4
I'll photoshop a picture for 99 grand if that is what is being asked.


I found this person from a google search right now, and dont know this person from a hole in the wall, so I cannot vouch for their integrity. But looks like if you can do a convincing enough job you could potentially be in for a much higher payday.
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-27-2023 , 10:17 PM
Don't they have AI tools that can whip up pregnant Michelle O pics in a jiffy?
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-27-2023 , 10:19 PM
Oh wait, so the real theory is that Michelle Obama is a man? I can see where this is going now.

And yeah, trustworthy as DAVETANGO looks from first impressions, I'm not going to start planning my retirement just yet. In fact, I will bet 10,000 dollars that the dude doesn't have 10,000 dollars, let alone ONE MILLION DOLLARS.

What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-27-2023 , 10:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by d2_e4
Oh wait, so the real theory is that Michelle Obama is a man? I can see where this is going now.

And yeah, trustworthy as DAVETANGO looks from first impressions, I'm not going to start planning my retirement just yet.
I've seen some videos which purport to thing something bouncing around in her pants.
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-27-2023 , 10:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Luckbox Inc
I've seen some videos which purport to thing something bouncing around in her pants.
Were they shot from 500ft away at maximum zoom on a 1 megapixel camera, perchance?
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-27-2023 , 10:28 PM
I just got a Fuji X-T2 paired with the XF 18-55mm f2-4 lens!

Gonna get a prime lens or two here soon
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-27-2023 , 10:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by d2_e4
Were they shot from 500ft away at maximum zoom on a 1 megapixel camera, perchance?
I can't speak to her biological sex, because I have never seen her DNA profile, but I have seen people post pictures of Michelle as a young woman in response to allegations she grew up male. But for the allegations she has never been pregnant, nothing.

Again, even if you think it is just garbage, I hope your realize there is an entire right wing information ecosystem that tens of millions of Americans are exposed to. And if you intentionally silo yourself to never be exposed to it, your understanding of the world isn't going to be as complete as it probably should be.
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-27-2023 , 10:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dunyain
Again, even if you think it is just garbage, I hope your realize there is an entire right wing information ecosystem that tens of millions of Americans are exposed to. And if you intentionally silo yourself to never be exposed to it, your understanding of the world isn't going to be as complete as it probably should be.
Interesting logic you got there. So, now I have to expose myself to all sorts of demonstrable horseshit in the interests of, what was it, completeness? Maybe I'll start with Scientology. Or hell, why not just immerse myself in flat Earth studies?

Do you realise how patently ridiculous this argument sounds?
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-27-2023 , 10:36 PM
Jesus Christ why is this thread about Michelle Obama and does she or does she not have a penis
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-27-2023 , 10:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ecriture d'adulte
Yeah, I just think that's unlikely given how strong the aversion was to him as soon as he started trying to run. Even if Trump drops out, I don't like his chances.
Yeah, I agree DeSantis is drawing slim. I think Biden is a bit undervalued atm and Trump is overvalued as well as any GOP candidate at this point in time, imo. I think it's Biden or in the unlikely event, some coordinated move involving Newsome. I think the GOP losses unless Trump gets lucky or some old school bland SOB like Romney decides to run.
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-27-2023 , 11:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by d2_e4
Were they shot from 500ft away at maximum zoom on a 1 megapixel camera, perchance?
I'm sure you could find it. Afaict either something is in there or the video is doctored.
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-28-2023 , 12:54 AM
6.25%

Some people in threads like this keep mentioning Biden or Trump being too ill to run, but I don't see much talk of Biden or Trump winning their party's primary process and then dying or being incapacitated before the general election. John McCain's health went down fast after that Comey senate hearing. McCain didn't die for another year after that Comey hearing, but he was incapacitated long before that. So what happens if Biden and/or Trump win their primary process, but afterwards die or suffer some debilitating illness before the general election? The Democrat party will most likely pick Harris as a replacement which is part of the "four" mentioned in this thread. So the wild cards for the Republican party would be a timing issue of whether Trump already had a vice presidential running mate or who came in second place in the GOP primary process. DeSantis is still the presumptive second place finisher in GOP primary process, but he is part of the "four" in this thread. So the most likely "non-four" scenario, I think, would be Trump winning the GOP primary process, then dying or getting sick and someone other than DeSantis coming in second or Trump having already picked a VP running mate.
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-28-2023 , 02:07 AM
I'm always amused how every time DS asks other people to estimate a probability he never tell us his estimate. Hmmmm.
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-28-2023 , 04:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by LirvA
Jesus Christ why is this thread about Michelle Obama and does she or does she not have a penis
I have to admit, the posts tickle my funny bone. Hilarious.

It's a caricature of a conspiracy theory... Kind of like the "Flat Earth" believers.
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-28-2023 , 06:34 AM
Opening this thread and seeing Dunyain's posts feels like when Michael opens the bag saying 'dead dove, do not eat'
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-28-2023 , 10:19 AM
No kidding, the "I'm smarter than everyone because I see the manipulation of everything by MSM" guy posting this crap is hilarious.

But he is definitely more Dwight than Michael.
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-28-2023 , 10:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by wazz
I'm fairly worried about RFK and think a good few people are undervaluing him
I would take out every loan I could on everything I own to bet on him losing. It would be the easiest money in history.
What's The Probability for the Non Top Four Presidential "Field"? Quote
08-28-2023 , 10:32 AM
Can we at least contain this unsupported nonsense?
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