I asked ChatGPT what I assumed was a simple and straightforward question in this area and it has no clue what the answer might be.

Okay, this particular LLM is bad at performing a rigorous thought experiment.

Would the answer have been simply 100 million to one?

I'm actually trying to find valid reasoning to rock the vote this November. The microscopic chances of my vote mattering do not help in this regard. Are any brainiacs capable of figuring out the fundamentals of the basic condition above? Could we then start to add fixed variables to make it more like the actual scenario?

Feel free to move this thread to a more appropriate place. Also feel free to kick me around for chosing not to vote historically, just make sure to provide some hard facts.

The election in 2000 was decided by like 300 votes.


Sorry

“ The 2000 United States presidential election recount in Florida was a period of vote recounting in Florida that occurred during the weeks after Election Day in the 2000 United States presidential election between George W. Bush and Al Gore. The Florida vote was ultimately settled in Bush's favor by a margin of 537 votes when the U.S. Supreme Court, in Bush v. Gore, stopped a recount that had been initiated upon a ruling by the Florida Supreme Court. Bush's win in Florida gave him a majority of votes in the Electoral College and victory in the presidential election.[1]”


https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000...unt_in_Florida

It does not matter if you as an individual choose not to vote. What matters is when too many individuals make the same choice. Elections are decided by small margins all the time. Would the result be different if more people voted? Could be. As a member of society, voting is your small part in working towards making it function properly.

A vote is a citizen saying they have faith in a politician

Should citizens vote for politicians which they don’t have faith in?

As an aside- ChatGPT/LLMs don't think. They use training data to produce output. So they can't perform thought experiments, because they're incapable of thinking. If it's not in the training data, it can't do it. LLMs are "bad" at math because they don't know how to do math. They know that 2 + 2 = 4 because it's in their training data, not because they know how to add.

If all outcomes were equally likely, yes. The popular vote distribution is more like a normal distribution, though. A simplified version of this would be:

Let's say all outcomes between 55% Harris/45% Trump and 45% Harris/55% Trump are equally likely, and all other outcomes are impossible. The popular vote total in 2020 was ~ 154 million- let's use 150 million as the total number of voters. So we count all the equally likely possibilities between [67.5 million, 82.5 million] and [82.5 million, 67.5 million] which is 15 million. 1 in 15 million.

You can make this more complicated/realistic by modelling it as a normal distribution.

So this IS a question ChatGPT can answer for you- or at least it can regurgitate the words that humans have written on the topic. LMCGPTFY...

ChatGPT

Voting is a powerful way to contribute to the democratic process and make your voice heard. Here are a few reasons why voting is important, even if it feels like your individual vote might not matter:

1. Collective Impact: While one vote might seem insignificant, the collective impact of many individuals voting can lead to substantial changes. Every vote contributes to the overall result.
   
2. Representation: Voting ensures that your interests and needs are represented in government. Elected officials make decisions that affect various aspects of your life, including education, healthcare, and infrastructure.
   
3. Accountability: Voting holds elected officials accountable. If politicians know that people are engaged and willing to vote them out, they are more likely to act in the best interests of their constituents.
   
4. Civic Duty: Voting is a fundamental part of democratic citizenship. It’s an opportunity to participate in shaping the future of your community, state, and country.
   
5. Policy Influence: Even if your preferred candidate doesn't win, a higher turnout can influence the policy priorities of the winning candidates, as they recognize the issues that matter to the electorate.
   
6. Historical Significance: Many people have fought for the right to vote. Exercising your right honors their efforts and continues the legacy of democratic participation.
   
7. Local Elections: Local elections often have a more direct impact on your daily life and can be decided by a small number of votes. Your participation is even more crucial in these elections.

Even if the chances of your single vote deciding an election are small, your vote is part of a larger movement that can drive meaningful change.

If there was a "none of the above" line and the winner needed >50% to win, otherwise there is a new election, then no, they should not. But the way elections currently work is that one of the names on the ballot will win no matter how many votes they get. Then the choice is "who, among these candidates, do I think will be the best?".

Okay, thanks. I will ponder such implication.

BTW, does this map to owning an electric car? If so, you should consider buying a Tesla.

Can't believe I'm first but obvs..

There have been a number of elections in the US that ended in ties or one vote victories.

Here is the article on it

In the us presidential election the odds are about 1 in 12 million.

This thread is relevant to my interests.

Please proceed.