I want to ask about West Virginia perhaps as microcosm of many other states political shifts.... or maybe it is a unique situation (coal)

in 1996, Clinton/Democrat won West Virginia by 15%.... in 2020 (and 2016 was similar), DJT/Republicans won WV by 40%....... that suggests at a minimum, 55% of all WV voters switched from D to R...

there have been huge shifts from D to R in many southern states, but WV isn't a southern state and the southern D>R shift is much older. people mention the "Civil Rights Act of 1964"

is the shift in West Virginia strictly 1) coal (so unpopular in 98% of the world), 2) social issues (there's a few books by scholars saying this is the dominant reason Kansas, Nebraska and now Missouri are so republican now)

thx in advance for any comments

Koch brothers were very effective in West Virginia at pinning the decline in the coal industry on Obama's climate change agenda.

Unions eroded, the Democrats have nothing to offer voters except coding boot camps, it’s no wonder so many have embraced Trumpism.

It's a very white state and a very non college educated state. That used to be a competitive demo, but is now the most reliably republican one.

I don't think there is any mystery.

In some order, the explanations are: (i) the declining political influence and importance of organized labor; (ii) acceleration of white grievance politics; and (iii) the perception among WV voters that Democrats prioritize clean energy (or energy sources that are cleaner than coal) over jobs, especially if the impact on jobs will be felt most acutely by blue collar white people.

In general, it's a mistake to think that political parties stay the same over time. The parties of today are nowhere near what they were 25 years ago.

I'm an expert in west virginia politics. There was no acceleration of white grievance politics in west virginia. The reason it stayed blue so much longer than other states similar to it was because the good ol boy networks in west virginia are/were much stronger than in places like even alabama or tennessee, so they were never forced to jump ship from the democrats in 1960's-1970's like other southern states. What I am saying is that in a sense west virginia was the last "old school" democrat state. Then a combination of brain drain, forgetting the memory of coal mines and the strikes, and people like obama being nominated led them to modernize from a uniquely " white socialist" zone to a more typically conservative state.

Republicans are better at getting people they don't represent to vote for them than Democrats are.

Since both parties openly work for the donor class now it's all about who sells the ice to the Eskimos more effectively.

Interesting. It wasn't until 1980 that the good ole boy networks in places like Alabama began to feel pressure to jump ship from the Democrats. It certainly didn't happen in the 1960s and early 1970s. Long time AL Senator Dick Shelby didn't feel compelled to switch parties until 1994.

But Joe Manchin is probably proof of your point. There are a lot of senators like Joe Manchin in the south 30 years ago.

I can talk a lot about this. I've spent a lot of time there. I just want to leave a few crumbs as food for thought.



This map shows the absolute last holdouts of hardcore racist democrats. In the 2012 democrat primary Obama was a beloved incumbent president running unopposed, so of course he won all 50 states handily. however, his worst performance was in west virginia , where convicted felon and anonymous prisoner keith judd received over 40% of the vote.

Another thing i'll say is more so than even racism west virginia is defined by poverty. By the time I was around coal mining jobs were scarce and almost a sort of lottery job. If you got a high paying coal mining job you'd be highly respected in your little town and the coal mining job would attract women. coal mining hasn't been a big part of most west virginians lives for awhile now.

Americans racist ?

Say it ain't so ?

I do remember the old Dems that were very pro labor and still racist as ****.

But not nearly as racist as the GOP as they just didn't care about anyone who wasn't at least a successful business owner or upper class professional.

Ah, the good old days.

When a man's club was a refuge from all the lesser strata of society.

So you are telling me Virginia is racist. How about Blacksburg? I heard that city is full of liberals and blackbears

(D) started going further left into kookier social issues, which are a massive turn-off for blue collar Democrats.
James Carville has spoken a bit about this, and he's about as Democrat as they come.

Blue collar guys just couldn't be any different from the contemporary Democratic party, but they had some residual pull because of Unions.
These days, all they see is this weird far-left coalition building group who are importing hordes of votes at a direct expense of their jobs, when they're not supporting policies that offshore them.

That’s trivially easy to disprove as all the losses have come from working class whites. Basically Dems have improved with college educated whites and crashed with anti immigrant anti black whites. Uneducated whites are the easiest group in the country to scare and get to vote against their interests. The Dems are more diverse, racially and in terms of education and that’s one of the best ways a large group of people can avoid a scam.

Not sure if I agree that racism isn’t in the interest of working-class white people.

You're not 'disproving' anything whatsoever by claiming that the losses came from working class whites.
If you could comprehend words, you'd realize that was essentially what I was saying (I mean, what do you think "blue collar democrats" are?)

The rest of your gibberish is just that; a bunch of ******s who paid six figures at interest for a Studiesology degree, who now all believe certain things, call themselves 'educated' and demand their student loan debt be subsidized by the people who responsibly paid their own way; largely, the people you belittle there.

Also, as someone with a lot of background in super advanced engineering environments full of people with IQs that would starch anyone participating in this conversation (myself included), they seem to strongly trend hard-right conservative... So congrats on your Sociology degree has taught you the only thing that matters is trannies, Rosa Parks and you're "smart" and 'educated' for repeating the same lame-ass left wing talking points as everyone else, but the left's coalition of entirely midwits is not in any way whatsoever 'superior' to the right's coalition of practically minded idiots and legit geniuses, both of whom prefer order to the chaos created by the left's child-like naive social policies that never seem to actually work anywhere but a very curated view of Sweden.

West virginia is a racist state. And an even bigger driver to their politics than racism is poverty.
But the biggest driver historically , even more accurate than racism or poverty is a deeply seeded suspicion of virginians. The best single sentence to sum up west virginia politics over its entire existence is " always do the opposite of what virginians say".

I have a PhD in math (Algebraic Geometry ) from Harvard, BA in math from Princeton, no student debt full rides on both. Every Fields Medalists I can think of is anti right wing and the morons I went to high school with all sound like….well you except for the lies about your totes super advanced engineering background.

One thing I'd say in explanation , because it might sound ridiculous to say someone from a relatively rich environment like south carolina, virginia or most american suburbs, is in regards to posting about how in 90's west virginia a coal mining job would attract women. At one point I lived in a wealthy suburb in maryland about 50 miles from the west virginia border.At that time , my dad was the director of technology of north america for british petroleum and I had some interesting friends from west virginia.

There's a certain level of wealth that causes men to be treated with deference by those around him; in a normal suburb that might be 10 million. In NYC it might be a couple billion. In west virginia it was a far lower amount. I was often given deference there that might seem more suited for a british prince or the son of a greek shipping magnate. There were... many people trying to seduce me for starters... and have my baby... etc.

in west virginia there are towns where an 80k coal mining job could make you quite popular!

Reminds me of Charles Barkley saying he paid all his moms bills and gave her 80k a year to live off. When someone said hey you’re rich why not give her more he said she lives in Leeds, AL. With what I give her she’s probably the richest person in town

Engineers do trend conservative.
They also trend autistic.

But seriously, do you find it hard to keep their coffee orders straight ?

It's been pointed out by better people than me, because it's so plain to see: poor white people in west virginia and poor black people in alabama have a lot more in common with each other than either group does with the average white suburban guy.

One of the reasons west virginia is one of the whitest states, and much whiter than any state around it is because there were very few jobs. immigrants went to states and cities that offered them opportunities.
There was a period of time where this was done intentionally by local politicians in west virginia; if most everyone in your town has no job and there are no jobs, then no outsiders will come...

I'm the OP of this thread

Thanks for all the fantastic comments

I will write some comments when I am back on an actual conputer

Wow, that 's great insight (that was a serious comment)

Democrats to have lost their way but to me the "new republicans" don't help the average white person at all. Instead, they just whip up resentment