Here's a sobering read ...

https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-c...f72_popular4-1

The scenario in which Nancy Pelosi gets sworn in as President would be sure to drive fervent Trump supporters crazy - not to mention Trump himself. With Trump egging them on, we could see violence in the streets and general chaos. (Living in a state full of Trumpy gun toters, I'll probably go into hiding.)

To reduce the possibility of any of the more dire outcomes Mr. Douglas proposes would require an overwhelming (landslide) Biden victory. I would guess Biden's Electoral College vote margin would have to be in the 50 to 75 range - if not higher. This would require Biden to win nearly all of the so called "swing" states. The question then becomes: How likely is that?

If we have a repeat of 2000 - where it boils down to the votes of a single state deciding the Presidency and Trump loses that single state - it's Katy bar the door. Trump has made it clear he will not accept a slim defeat - especially a defeat that hinges on the results of a single state.

Election day could get real interesting ...

While I'm skeptical of scenarios that predict a revolution, what we have seen over the last years certainly shows that a fair bit of people could believe his claims in such a scenario (not that I'm saying he would make them, that I don't know).

Even the most basic of facts can be hotly contested these days it seems.

I know you all like to meme about "Trumpers" but there's not nearly enough support for Trump to facilitate the type of shenanigans you're imagining.

For every whackjob who would stand with Trump's futile attempt to barricade himself in the Oval, there would be 10,000 other right wingers who aren't lunatics and would stand behind President Warren.

Trump has only gotten as far as he has in this process because he's legally entitled to do most/all of the crazy **** he does. That stops the second he rejects the results of a lawful election, and he'll be escorted out in chains by the military.

I know many people in my personal life who you guys would label as hopelessly deplorable Trumpkins. Not a single one would risk so much as a papercut to stand behind Trump in the outlined scenarios.

Why are people so terrified of what happens if Donnie loses the election? He'll pout around and threaten to fight it for a week or two, then get bored and tired and slink off. No one with any federal power is gonna stand in his corner.

lol, Trumpers are perfectly happy with his stormtroopers taking over cities, not a one of them will raise a fuss if he declares himself emperor for life.

I always find it amusing when democrats or democrat supporters bring this up. Like we haven't just been through three and a half years of them not accepting the result of the 2016 election and trying to overturn it by any means possible.

Really? Wow, I had no idea that if impeachment was successful, that meant Hillary Clinton would have become president as opposed to Mike Pence. Really smart and insightful post!

The evil deeds the Trumpers might do when their man loses is limited only by your imagination.

lol dude I dont think you are paying attention.

you yourself will be finding a reason to support it when it happens. and it will happen.

and the Dems and the left wont do a damn thing. just like they didnt do anything for Bush.

Bolded is correct. But it isn't a question of whether Trump would or would not have the support of people like your friends. That doesn't matter.

The real question is whether the U.S. military, the FBI, and the Secret Service would support Trump staying in office if he lost the election. And the answer to that question is no. Those institutions have no loyalty to Trump and even less interest in attaching themselves to him after he has lost the election.

If Trump made noises about staying in office, I am 99% certain that those institutions would tell Trump that (i) he does not have their support for staying in office; and (ii) they will not recognize his authority after January 20, 2021. Faced with that message, even someone as stubborn and stupid as Trump almost certainly would leave office. And if he didn't, I think he would be taken into custody by the FBI almost immediately.

there is tho. every single thing that Trump and his gang have done has been supported by Inso and the rest. they had their excuses. they were given their marching orders. there was always some flimsy justification.

but I am old enough to remember when the Trump voters said they would be the first to line up with their guns if we ever had concentration camps for the migrants.

narrator: they did not oppose the camps. they support them to this day.\

like Trump and his merry band of fascists arent gonna just go muahahaha we take over the government illegally because wear are evil muahahahah. they are gonna put out some memo from Barr about illegal communists are trying to take over the country and kill the white people in the suburbs so its a national security thing. and also 12 Billion illegal aliens voted bc of Soros and China.

like, thats all it takes for Ins0 and lvr and joe to support it. well actually, those guys dont even need that. but it will give them better cover. and the moderates and the Dems will argue over it on CNN and LuckBox is perfectly correct that it will just be theater.

I actually think it will happen too.

I would never support the loser of a democratic election strong-arming their way into the presidency. I don't care who's doing it.

Again, this is not some Evil Genius that's so power-hungry he'll gather a group of soldiers to barricade him in the White House and bring the world to a grinding halt. He's not Slobodan Milosevic. He's a trust-fund baby and reality-tv star that got elected b/c his opponent was terrible.

It never could happen here thinking is facilitative of it happening.

ya I just said that. reread my post.

also, just for reference, how do you feel about the concentration camps and the child detention?

Nothing is impossible. I am not arguing for a lack of vigilance. Any time a president ignores the results of an election, it is an inherent threat to democratic government. I firmly agree with you, victor, and everyone else that Trump's instincts are authoritarian and antidemocratic and that he would be willing to use whatever mechanism to stay in power.

I am suggesting that specific dynamics around Trump, and Trump's relationship with the institutions that Trump would need to control in order to stay in office, make it highly unlikely that Trump could successfully ignore the results of an election.

There are versions of "Trump" that could be a lot more dangerous to democracy than the actual Trump is. Trump is a buffoon who struggles daily with people and institutions ignoring his directions, slow-walking his directives, etc. If Trump were a highly competent, ex-military strongman who commanded a ton of respect within the military and within law enforcement, the risk of him staying in office would be much higher in my opinion.

The trajectory of this country and the GOP's tolerance for strongman tactics and rhetoric is troubling. There is certainly no guarantee that the next authoritarian will be as dumb and incompetent as Trump.

this

The idea that you need to be some kind of competent genius to overthrow democratic norms is laughable. "Trump's too dumb to pull it off" is the kind of thing you tell yourself to avoid thinking about what could come next. History is full of clowny morons who successfully become dictators, it's not terribly complicated to do. We've already seen with the impeachment that Congress isn't going to stop his lawless behavior.

Trump's already laid the groundwork for asserting that Dems are rigging the election via absentee ballots. Every right-wing Trump slappy will latch onto whatever pretext Trump hands them.

You think the military is going to swoop in and save democracy? What kind of Candyland nonsense is that?

Where did I claim that you have to be a genius to disrupt norms? Trump is a complete ****ing moron and he has been very successful at disrupting norms. And when did I suggest that the joe6pack's of the world (i.e., right-wing Trump slappies) would need some sort of compelling reason to accept whatever explanation Trump gives for refusing to hand over power?

The question I am discussing is what happens if Trump loses and there is an emergency ruling by SCOTUS in Biden's favor, confirming that Trump has lost the election.

If you think that Trump will refuse to leave office in that scenario, what exactly do you believe will happen? Do you believe that Trump will barricade himself in the White House? And if so, do you believe that the FBI and the military will continue to follow Trump's orders and assist him in establishing a Putin-style dictatorship?

That scenario might cause a civil war. It certainly would usher in a period of social unrest and violence that would be many orders of magnitude greater than anything that this country has seen in the last 100 years. If that's really what you believe is going to happen, you probably should be stocking up on guns and ammo and converting whatever assets you have into gold. Because the apocalypse is coming if the military and the FBI help Trump resist an order from SCOTUS declaring Biden the winner of the election.

To be clear, I am not pointing to the military or the FBI as disinterested protectors of democracy. But it is clear at this point that those institutions have no particular love for Trump and even less interest in being coopted by Trump to serve his personal political interests.

If Trump is successful on the front end in doing something that calls the ultimate outcome into question, and if he wins in the SCOTUS when the outcome is contested, then all bets are off. In that scenario, the FBI and the military certainly will not swoop in and save us. Democrats will complain, but they ultimately won't do anything either.

I agree with bolded. I also think, as I've said in the other threads on this topic, the damage is not from Trump pulling anything off, rather him doing some shady **** and contesting the results at all which will result in massive unrest. Even if he just sticks to his guns for a week, it's still a week of absolute chaos.

Agree with this 100%.

The way the world works these days, if a scenario like this unfolded it is also likely these ideas would make it into the conspiracy-bubble and be food for particular forums, militias and lone-wolves. Probably not with the capacity for anything major, but ruinous to discourse and a potential threat to some people's safety in outlier cases.

It's not something we think of that much, but the respectful handing over of power is a very important aspect of democracy.

Of course, this is all very "what if".

Change the variable in the equation and it's a completely different story


SCOTUS has already shown its predilection for ruling in the GOP's favor in such matters. See 2000 Bush v. Gore, 531 U.S. 98.

That was a very different scenario than the likely scenario with Trump.

Also, Gore was the candidate pushing for hand recounts in Florida in 2000. Bush was the presumptive winner.

That seems to be what people are suggesting ITT.

There are many examples of bumbling incompetent clowns that successfully tear apart democracy. You just need to be completely shameless.

And I have no faith that the military brass isn't going to play along. Look at General Flynn, look at what Bill Barr is doing to the justice dept. There are always guys at the top who don't actually give a **** about norms and institutional values and ****.

https://gen.medium.com/all-your-most...ed-5db70d32373

A good read on what happens if Trump rejects electoral defeat

Cliffs: If Biden wins by a lot, not much. If it's a narrow race, there are a lot of steps that goes into certifying who the President is and every one of them is a potential landmine if people want to hold things up, dispute things, etc.