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Ukraine policy / Ukraine politics (excised from Russia / Ukraine thread) Ukraine policy / Ukraine politics (excised from Russia / Ukraine thread)

09-21-2022 , 04:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cuepee
[...]

In a move designed to shore up Russia's military in Ukraine, Russia's parliament on Tuesday also approved a bill to toughen punishments for a host of crimes such as desertion, damage to military property and insubordination, if they were committed during military mobilisation or combat situations.

Quote:
Originally Posted by tame_deuces
Well, it will please the Russian hawks. Will it change anything? It might. It could be a pretext to mobilization. The new bills passed in the Duma could be seen as a sign that Russia is preparing to move to a full war economy.[...]
With Putin's recent speech blaming nuclear threats from NATO, it seems we got a half-way measure in terms of "partial mobilization", whatever that is supposed to mean. It seems mostly a way to insist that you have more buttons to press after this.

The bills passed in the Duma and Putin's later speech shows the coordination between the Russian parliament and Putin's circle we would expect, so there are few political cracks to be seen there.

With Russian forces on the ground increasingly relying on irregulars, it might be the only way for Russia to quickly strengthen regular forces. It is tempting to say that it smacks of desperation, but more realistically it is just Putin and his circle attempting to escalate; about the only thing they know how to do in these matters. I also think the Kremlin operates in a "fact bubble", where bad news and realistic prospects are not welcome. Even though Kharkiv should have been a wakeup call, I suspect their grasp on the situation is still a long way from reality.

Of course, with a dwindling economy, crippled industry and a ton of modern equipment out of the fight, Russia has a logistical nightmare ahead. The organization of their army groups were a dumpster fire at the start of the invasion, and now seems to be almost non-existent. Color me dubious that this will be fixed.

The increase in incendiary rhetoric from the "loyal opposition" and Russian pundits on the government's "approved"-list is as always hard to analyze, since there aren't many independent voices or sources left in Russia. My guess is that it is "pre-approved" to make Putin's approach seem more moderate.

"Western" governments will require a steady hand ahead. Though, even if they wanted to, there is really no way out at this point.

Last edited by tame_deuces; 09-21-2022 at 04:37 AM.
Ukraine policy / Ukraine politics (excised from Russia / Ukraine thread) Quote
09-21-2022 , 07:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cuepee
Iraq was different imo. I view Iraq as a raw flex of US power. One where they basically just said, we can take any made up reason, and go in and depose your leadership, and decimate your country, and put the UN and world community aside and rally enough other Nation support to do so, and there is nothing anyone can do about it. We will face no consequences.

it was a message to any nation that not being aligned with US interests and being considered 'against our interests' is a very dangerous place to be. Venezuela and others take note that simply another Timothy McVeigh type situation (any situation), we can and will build whatever narrative we want to then use that to end you.


I think the US (the industrial complex and war mongers behind Bush) wanted to send a message to the world that the reason does not have to have any connection to why we choose you to attack as we can harness any rage to any incident and end you, and get away with it.
I don't agree. I am much more inclined to see the explanation for the Iraq War as duplicitousness paired with incompetence rather than duplicitousness paired with 4D chess. If it was duplicitous 4-D chess, it was very short-sighted, because the net effect of Bush's war was to reduce domestic enthusiasm for military adventurism and nation building.

Also, it wouldn't have been necessary to send the message you are suggesting. All the countries that were likely to bear the brunt of U.S. military force assumed the worst about U.S. motives even before 9/11.
Ukraine policy / Ukraine politics (excised from Russia / Ukraine thread) Quote
09-21-2022 , 11:10 AM
Ya we disagree.

I mean, we probably agree on most points but I think there was a lot of US flex there.

I think there was at least some belief (like we have and hope with Russia now) that the US would not go full lawless and just invade a country and depose its leadership because they could. That they would have to have an iota of a justifiable reason and the most solid of UN and world support.

The US could not even get Canada on board the Iraq invasion, and Canada is not important for our military force (although we almost always support the US with front line troops in any of their conflicts) but we are important, in being seen as a mostly fair arbiter. We give the 'seal of approval'.

I think GWB sent a clear message, which is one both Qatar and Ukraine were aware of when dealing with Trump, and that message is the U.S. CAN and WILL go completely rogue if they feel it is in their interests and we will pay ZERO price besides some meaningless 'reduced enthusiasm', which we really do not need to act. Trumps threat is less meaningful, imo, if they feel ultimately the US will be constrained by the UN or other outside forces.

A US willing to go rogue is, IMO, more terrifying to other nations than a US who can be restrained by the rules and a UN influenced heavily by China, who might say 'No'. If a country believes China and others thru the UN have the power to stop the US, that makes them feel safer. Knowing the US has no such constraint, puts them on notice.
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09-21-2022 , 08:03 PM
USA, from time to time , has to send the message they can't be constrained. It's a necessary but somewhat unfortunate side effect of ruling the world.
Ukraine policy / Ukraine politics (excised from Russia / Ukraine thread) Quote
09-21-2022 , 08:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by andre006
Surely it is important to analyze this under the lens of Russian propaganda, imagine if people were analyzing this under the lens of US/NATO propaganda.

Imagine asking populations that have been shelled by Poroshenko/Zelensky for speaking the wrong language if they're fond of Ukronazis.
US propaganda is known as truth and if you speak out against then you get ostracized quick. Doesn't matter that you will assuredly be proven correct in 5 10 or 50 yeats
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09-22-2022 , 11:06 AM
Tough time to be a protester in Russia as they scoop up those protesting conscription and send them on their journey right to the front lines.


Thank you comrade for your service, let us help you to the processing centre.

Quote:
Russia drafts anti-war protesters into military amid nationwide demonstrations: monitoring group




More than 1,300 people were detained across Russia on Wednesday for participating in nationwide anti-war protests – with some directly conscripted into the military,...

...The government has said that punishment for refusing the draft is now 15 years in jail. Of the more than 1,300 people detained nationwide, more than 500 were in Moscow and more than 520 in St. Petersburg,...




Ukraine policy / Ukraine politics (excised from Russia / Ukraine thread) Quote
10-02-2022 , 07:03 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chillrob
I have heard no recording of what Johnson said to Ukraine, but President Z has been pretty clear form the beginning he doesn't plan to give up any territory under any circumstances.

No one wants to run tanks into Moscow, that would be insane to do, and it's pretty close to insane to think many people want that.
We know from the release of early timelines that a western leader like Macron took a lot of their actions on the request of Zelensky and the Ukrainian government. For example Macron's call to peace even after the invasion happened was an example of this. The flaws and strengths of Zelensky will be discussed for decades to come, but being a stooge won't be on that list.

Of course, heeding Ukrainian requests is done in large part because there is legitimate reason to support Ukraine. That said, it of course isn't lost on European politicians that Zelensky still has that wartime-sheen, and that it might rub off on them.

But for my part, there is a cultural aspect here that is hard to convey to many of our resident American posters, since the US hasn't really experienced an existential war since its war of independence. American war debate is very much a debate of "over there" and how much trouble one can afford to bring home.

Over here, things are a bit different. I grew up with grandparents who had suffered invasion and existential war, as did most of my generation in Europe. We also grew up with Soviet bombers and divisions at our borders, and Soviet forces occupying a third of Europe.

Then when CCCP fell there was a brief period of niceties with Russia in the nineties, before we were back to Russian nuclear bombers, regiments drilling at the border and Russia doing land-grabs in neighboring countries. There was a friendly Russia too, by all means. Which was actually quite lovely, because a lot of Russian culture is wonderful. Still, in a way that only makes the actions of the regime worse, because you have seen how things should have been.

Nor is there any military equivalent of the US in European. Most countries are small, and even among the large ones it is questionable if any of them would would have been able to withstand Russia on their own. And that's even with what we now know of the state of the Russian armed forces.

Banding together becomes necessity. It doesn't come easy, cooperation is often weak and fragmented in a continent born out of millennia of internal strife, where most of us can still name relatives who were killed by soldiers from another European country. However, in the matter of Ukraine I think it finally became clear that it was now or never. An international coalition spearheaded by the US also made that choice a lot easier.

There is a tendency among some Americans to thing of European support for Ukraine as an expression of naivety, fear, warmongering, bravado, being brainwashed by Hollywood-esque patriotism or being blind to the faults of Ukraine.

While some of that surely exists, I'm not seeing much of it around me: It's more a weird fatalism which I'm beginning to think many Americans struggle to understand. An idea that it's not really about choice or outcomes at this point, it just is what it is.
Ukraine policy / Ukraine politics (excised from Russia / Ukraine thread) Quote
10-02-2022 , 10:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by tame_deuces
There is a tendency among some Americans to thing of European support for Ukraine as an expression of naivety, fear, warmongering, bravado, being brainwashed by Hollywood-esque patriotism or being blind to the faults of Ukraine.
Huh? I'm not at all clear what - if any - major political faction in the US has been framing European support for Ukraine these contradictory ways. If there is a sort of systemic bias from Americans, it is more that they think of themselves as doing all the heavy lifting and critiquing countries punching below their weight like France and Germany while ignoring the very significant contributions "above their weight" from countries like Poland or Czech Republic.
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10-02-2022 , 12:10 PM
A reminder

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10-02-2022 , 12:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nepeeme2008
A reminder

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What's your point?

Ukraine policy / Ukraine politics (excised from Russia / Ukraine thread) Quote
10-02-2022 , 01:04 PM
I can't tell who the guy in the photos above is.
Ukraine policy / Ukraine politics (excised from Russia / Ukraine thread) Quote
10-02-2022 , 01:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by campfirewest
What's your point?



These two pictures are two totally different scenarios. One is an official meeting, the other is Trump kicking out all U.S. media and allowing only Russian media in the room.

Besides, Obama and Clinton didn't swarm how brilliant Putin is when Russia amassed troops on the Ukrainian border.

My point is that Trump is a Russian asset.


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Ukraine policy / Ukraine politics (excised from Russia / Ukraine thread) Quote
10-02-2022 , 01:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by campfirewest
What's your point?

content://com.android.chrome.FileProvider/images/screenshot/166473061583180014517.jpg
Ukraine policy / Ukraine politics (excised from Russia / Ukraine thread) Quote
10-02-2022 , 01:18 PM
content://com.android.chrome.FileProvider/images/screenshot/1664730983122193757134.jpg

see Merkel there? the German gov is best buddies with putin.
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10-02-2022 , 01:27 PM
You people aren't serious I hope.

Y'all Russian trolls or what?

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10-02-2022 , 01:29 PM
Pathetic

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10-02-2022 , 01:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by washoe
content://com.android.chrome.FileProvider/images/screenshot/166473061583180014517.jpg
What a charming guy
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10-02-2022 , 01:33 PM
Meetings of heads of state, how does that work?
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10-02-2022 , 01:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BuckyK
Meetings of heads of state, how does that work?

Ukraine policy / Ukraine politics (excised from Russia / Ukraine thread) Quote
10-02-2022 , 01:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by washoe
what can I tell you. why did they make themself reliant on the Russians?

this is German former head of state. Schroeder ex boss of Gazprom and putins best buddy.

content://com.android.chrome.FileProvider/images/screenshot/16647326583281628945050.jpg
Sorry, you're defense of Trump is the typical political ploy of deflection. Trying to steer the conversation in a different direction.

By doing this, you're basically admitting that Trump in Putin's pocket.
I would not be shocked if all those classified documents Trump stole, and if it was anyone else, they'd be in prison already, intended to hand them over to Putin.




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Last edited by Nepeeme2008; 10-02-2022 at 01:54 PM.
Ukraine policy / Ukraine politics (excised from Russia / Ukraine thread) Quote
10-02-2022 , 01:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by washoe
I have no idea what I'm looking at but I'll make the correct assumption that it's not the same as a meeting with a NATO head of state
Ukraine policy / Ukraine politics (excised from Russia / Ukraine thread) Quote
10-02-2022 , 02:00 PM
Small penis big table. Now we could just get this guy some hair we'll be ok
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10-02-2022 , 02:24 PM





and btw since the Vietnam war, we get no honest war coverage. it's all lies and deception and more lies. they knew it was a disaster.
Ukraine policy / Ukraine politics (excised from Russia / Ukraine thread) Quote
10-02-2022 , 02:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BuckyK
Meetings of heads of state, how does that work?
Usually with a witness present.

Trump ensuring no American translator or anyone else from the US could be witness to what he said to Russian operatives and only Russian translators and THEIR people were present was a shocking departure and a dangerous one.
Ukraine policy / Ukraine politics (excised from Russia / Ukraine thread) Quote
10-02-2022 , 02:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BuckyK
I have no idea what I'm looking at but I'll make the correct assumption that it's not the same as a meeting with a NATO head of state
they have their own NATO, they are playing their own game there. NATO is the enemy in their books.

they have 80% of the none western world on their team. why do you think the Latin states want to cooperate with them? because they are getting screwed by the West.
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