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Ukraine-Russia War Take 2 Ukraine-Russia War Take 2

02-24-2024 , 09:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluegrassplayer
Russia's economy will be seeing a slight boost due to switching to a wartime economy. They will be likely be chasing a solution for crisis after crisis though due to that.

Medium term and long term they will be an absolute mess.

Crude oil is not up 2x from beginning of invasion. It's down significantly since the first few months of the invasion. That isn't a reflection of Russia's economy anyways though.

? so these charts are not telling you its up?
its way up btw as it is always is in wartimes with oil producing giants.


https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/


Ukraine will likely chase a solution, too. they could have had way more land and people if they layed their weapons down and negotiated from the start, thats the irony. now they are just chasing losses. Id say this affects russia slightly and possibly makes it even richer, while ukraine is the one suffering.
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02-24-2024 , 09:50 AM
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02-24-2024 , 09:55 AM
Feb 25, 2022: $92

Feb 24, 2024: $76

Once again it doesn't really matter though because Russia isn't able to sell at those prices.



If Ukraine had "layed their weapons down and negotiated from the start" then they would have no land and their people would be at the whim of a ruthless dictator.
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02-24-2024 , 09:59 AM
March, 18, 2020, the oil price is at 20 dollars.

Now it is at 77 USD.
You have to think about the lead up to this war etc. it was predictable.

How are our energy bills way up if the price dropped? it didnt.

Thats what you are saying, and the psychpathic far left, doesnt mean its true. It could all be propaganda, right?
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02-24-2024 , 10:03 AM
You decided to look at a point 2 years before the invasion with the note "Global pandemic reduces oil demand"...

Meanwhile you are ignoring the time immediately before and after. the invasion started

And, once again, all of this is a moot point because Russia is not selling at that price and it isn't reflective of Russia's economy anyways.
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02-24-2024 , 10:07 AM
russia is selling via proxis to you and europe.
they just sell oil to china or india and then they sell it to you.
you have no way of knowing where it came from, it doesnt have a tag or anything. its oil. of course they are able to sell at a big profit. russia is one of the top oil producers in the world and anyone is buying from them. well not anyone, officially, but unofficially.
oil is up at least double from 4 years ago.


so what you guys are saying is that the war ukraine doesnt drive the prices (further) up? lol
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02-24-2024 , 10:08 AM
Do you think those proxies do that for free?
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02-24-2024 , 10:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluegrassplayer
Do you think those proxies do that for free?

how much would they take? 1% 2 % ? thats a joke in the bigger picture. oil is still at the peak- all time peak. do you get this?

and were doing everything we can to further increase the prices.
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02-24-2024 , 10:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluegrassplayer
You decided to look at a point 2 years before the invasion with the note "Global pandemic reduces oil demand"...

Meanwhile you are ignoring the time immediately before and after. the invasion started

And, once again, all of this is a moot point because Russia is not selling at that price and it isn't reflective of Russia's economy anyways.
Not much the pandemic per se, but rather the governments reactions to it.

Anyway russia sells at even lower prices, the cap is at $60 for it's oil. India is very happy about it

For a while India had a $30 per barrell discount to buy russian oil

https://www.livemint.com/industry/en...427645320.html
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02-24-2024 , 10:16 AM
more like 33%+, and even more now that the shadow fleets are being sanctioned individually. There are tankers marooned outside India because India won't take the oil. Iraq is now undercutting Russia, so Russia has to sell at even lower price.

It is not at its all time peak, it got up to $120.
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02-24-2024 , 10:20 AM
120 was in 2022, so russia was able to ride that train and profit from it.
I dont think its that high, the margins are stil huge with lower %. its a huge business.
All time peak could be in one weak again or 5 month. we are still hoovering around it.
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02-24-2024 , 10:24 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by washoe
No, its not, crude oil prices have doubled since the invasion.
no
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02-24-2024 , 10:25 AM
There is not a point in time when Russia would not be able to "ride that train". However since they started the war before that, they did not get to ride it as high as they would have if they hadn't started the war. To the point though, if it was 120, and now it's less than 80, then it's not at the peak as you claimed.

The discount is that high. Also now Ukraine is striking oil refineries with drones causing Russia's costs to go up.
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02-24-2024 , 10:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BOIDS
no

but your energy bills have doubled or trippled.

how come?
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02-24-2024 , 10:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluegrassplayer
There is not a point in time when Russia would not be able to "ride that train". However since they started the war before that, they did not get to ride it as high as they would have if they hadn't started the war. To the point though, if it was 120, and now it's less than 80, then it's not at the peak as you claimed.

The discount is that high. Also now Ukraine is striking oil refineries with drones causing Russia's costs to go up.

We are hoovering around it atm imo. yeah ukraine is doing that, idk why. they are driving our prices up with these attacks.
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02-24-2024 , 11:05 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by washoe
but your energy bills have doubled or trippled.
No
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02-24-2024 , 11:17 AM
Utility bills can go up because of green monstrosities but it's a different topic and it varies state to state in the USA and country by country in the EU
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02-24-2024 , 11:42 AM
washoe: Really sorry to hear that Ukraine forcing Russia to invade resulted in Ukraine for some reason trying to attack Russia's main source of income in order to prevent Russia from killing them and that this caused your bills to rise a little.
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02-24-2024 , 11:54 AM




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02-24-2024 , 12:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluegrassplayer
washoe: Really sorry to hear that Ukraine forcing Russia to invade resulted in Ukraine for some reason trying to attack Russia's main source of income in order to prevent Russia from killing them and that this caused your bills to rise a little.
The idea Is that if the west hadn't moved a finger, Ukraine would have lost quickly and Washoe quality of life would be higher.

That's the claim and that's what we should answer to, because for Europe it is objectively true (not for the USA though).

In the EU we have to convince people that paying more for food and energy is worth it, we can't deny helping Ukraine survive the assault was costless for us.
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02-24-2024 , 02:09 PM
It is not objectively true. Ukraine would not have lost quickly because they didn't close quickly, that is objectively true.

Western aid didn't arrive until later, and it was all because Ukraine successfully defended Kyiv and began taking back territory.


Helping Ukraine has not been costless for USA like you claim either.

Last edited by Bluegrassplayer; 02-24-2024 at 02:32 PM.
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02-24-2024 , 02:44 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluegrassplayer
washoe: Really sorry to hear that Ukraine forcing Russia to invade resulted in Ukraine for some reason trying to attack Russia's main source of income in order to prevent Russia from killing them and that this caused your bills to rise a little.
That is a matter of perspective.
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02-24-2024 , 02:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluegrassplayer
It is not objectively true. Ukraine would not have lost quickly because they didn't close quickly, that is objectively true.

Western aid didn't arrive until later, and it was all because Ukraine successfully defended Kyiv and began taking back territory.


Helping Ukraine has not been costless for USA like you claim either.
"Helping" Afghanistan and Iraq has been equally unsuccessful. First time in 40 years Afghanistan is at peace ATM. How come?

And why is Vitali Klitschko the major of Kiev? Since when does a heavy weight boxer get to be major of a capital city of a country? That never happened! Oh wait, it just happened but only in one of the most corrupt countries in the world.
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02-24-2024 , 06:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluegrassplayer
It is not objectively true. Ukraine would not have lost quickly because they didn't close quickly, that is objectively true.

Western aid didn't arrive until later, and it was all because Ukraine successfully defended Kyiv and began taking back territory.


Helping Ukraine has not been costless for USA like you claim either.
Helping Ukraine cost every american approx 500 bucks total (nominal), but actually a lot less when accounting for the fact that a lot of that help was anyway generating GDP for Americans themselves.

For Europe it's objectively true than heating and electric bills shot up immensely uniquely because we stopped buying Russian gas and a portion of the insane recent inflation depended on that.

So we had the direct per household bill cost in the thousands in some countries (hundreds in some others) + every single other item in the basket costing more because of that.

Europe is also paying for the cost of Ukrainian refugees
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02-24-2024 , 10:08 PM
You are comparing direct costs vs indirect. Gas prices and oil rose in USA as well, in part because USA began shipping those to Europe due to Europe's reliance on Russian oil and gas.

Helping Ukraine was no "costless" for USA like you claimed. I do not doubt that Europe has paid a larger amount for these types of things, but to say that in comparison USA's costs were costless is false.

I also acknowledged the costs in my response to washoe which you were replying to. The main point of that post was to point out that the rise in costs are a secondary consideration to Ukraine, which is more concerned about depriving Russia of the income used to continue destroying Ukraine. He was clearly confused on why Ukraine would seek to reduce Russia's ability to destroy Ukraine at the cost of his bills rising.
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