Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluegrassplayer
There was a Russian breakthrough at Ocheretyne, west of Avdiivka. A brigade which was sent to relieve another brigade left their positions and Russia was able to punch through. A lot of blame and insults being thrown at the brigade which left their positions, but very little known about what exactly happened. Russia advanced a significant amount, likely several miles. This means Ukraine will lose a few villages, which doesn't seem like a big deal but it is. For a long time every tree line, hill, and landmark had a name because taking it was a significant deal and extremely difficult. Losing several villages is an extremely fast pace considering the stage of the war. And more importantly as Kofman said in the summary above, these things happen slowly, then gradually then quickly. Ukraine could strengthen their lines and push Russia back, or they could break and Ukraine loses significant ground. It's an extremely tense time in the war. Hopefully aid arrives, mobilization goes smoothly, and things pick up, but until then it will be tense.
You can see the map of the breach in my last post. It's bad. The current state of the war is the worst since the initial invasion. The delay in aid caused some extremely difficult situations for Ukraine and we're seeing the results from that now. The recently passed aid is probably going to arrive in 2 weeks or so. Ukraine just passed their mobilization bill, which should have been passed months ago but they couldn't reach a consensus for it (very much like a democracy and very much unlike a warmongering Nazi authoritarian government), so things will be grim for awhile. It was clear for awhile that Ukraine would be losing ground for pretty much all of 2024, but the mobilization issue combined with the aid issue made things far worse.
Putin realized that this is likely his best opportunity to do anything so he's been throwing everyone he's got at Ukraine even though the weather is not good for it. Russian losses (despite the lack of ammo on Ukraine's side) are outrageous. There is likely going to be a "Summer Offensive" when the weather is better, but no one knows what that means. It could be a return to actual tactics using heavy equipment which has been kept in reserve and units which have been training for awhile, or it could just be more of whatever the hell is going on now.
In the event that Ukraine's line breaks now Putin would have some new land which he's destroyed to stick a flag on and spin as a victory. His winning conditions have shrunk immensely and despite the fact that all of his stated goals are far worse off from when he stated this war, his is economy ruined, his world standing ruined, and being unable to travel freely due to an ICC arrest warrant on his head, he will try to spin this as "winning" and his far right and tankie amplifiers will repeat his propaganda as they always do. If this happens then it's possible that a "peace" settlement in favor of Russia will be forced, likely leading to a frozen conflict and sporadic fighting until Russia invades again.
However if Ukraine holds their lines and solves the mobilization issue then it's likely things are downhill for Putin all of 2025 and 2026. Putin realizes this which is why he's pushing so hard now. Putin's current strategy is an extreme gamble in attempt to avoid a war of attrition, which likely does not favor him. He is trying to end the war before it truly comes down to attrition, and he does not care about the meat waves that he's throwing at the problem.