This is a bit macabre, but sometimes (like the present) so is life.

Since February or early March, when the number of confirmed Corona virus deaths in the United States was well below 1,000; we have now ballooned up to 133,000 and climbing. (I seem to recall a prominent Government official insisting that the number of Corona virus cases was "... 15 and would soon drop to zero".)

Election day is November 3rd. Here's your chance to show your expertise at epidemiology by giving your count for the number of confirmed Covid-19 deaths by election day.

Since I'm the one opening this can of worms, I'll start with my [highly unscientific] estimate/guesstimate. I predict the death count on election day will stand at 252,397. (If I manage to contract the virus, that number will probably increase by a count of one.)

350,000 with 3500 the day of the election.

213,013 Though that one guy that got eaten by a shark and than had covid shouldnt of counted.

Covid Cases are like mail in ballots. Cant be trusted Im kidding

I'm sticking with my estimate/guesstimate of three days ago, (i.e. 252,397 deaths by election day), but doing the math - not my strong suit - indicates my numbers may be high.

According to the numbers being reported today by John Hopkins University, the death count since [approximately] late January stands at 135,272 Covid-19 deaths in the United States. Since all these numbers are approximations, (and deaths didn't really start picking up until sometime in early February), I'm going to arbitrarily pick February 1st as "Day 1" for the death count statistics. (There were certainly Covid-19 deaths in the United States prior to February 1st, but that number was well below 1,000 - probably below 100.) From February 1st to today, July 13th, 163 days have elapsed - give or take one day. Dividing 135,272 by 163 yields an average daily death rate of 830 deaths.

Multiplying this average daily death rate by the number of days remaining between now and election day (i.e. 114) yields an additional 94,620 deaths. Adding this number to the 135,272 deaths that have already been reported yields the number of Covid-19 deaths by election day at [approximately] 229,892. If this projection is reasonably accurate, my [initial] estimate/guesstimate of 252,397 deaths may be above the actual count by approximately 22,500 deaths.

The death rate and reported cases appear to be spiking in certain "hot spots" around the country. However, this uptick is hopefully temporary as many of the most severely affected states, (i.e. Florida, Arizona, California, Texas, et al.), are instituting stronger anti-spread requirements - such as mandating wearing of face masks. (My hometown is now requiring mandatory wearing of face masks for all public movement outside your home. The CEOs of our two local hospitals are warning that ICU beds are very close to capacity and the treatment of Covid-19 patients is straining the ability to handle other "routine" emergencies - such as heart attacks, strokes, and car accident victims. There is apprehension that our hospitals may not be able to cope with a substantial uptick in Covid-19 cases; especially an uptick in patients requiring hospitalization.

On the positive side, doctors are getting better at discovering ways of preventing deaths and saving lives of those who are infected, so the reported daily death count may remain stable or actually start declining. On the other hand, if young people continue attending "Covid parties" and other acts of random stupidity where they intentionally expose themselves to a person who has been diagnosed positive for the Corona virus; who knows where the death rate goes?

I'm going to stick with my "high" 252,397 guesstimate, but I hope I'm wrong.

I think your methodology assumes that the function is linear? It's exponential or logistic (which is basically exponential with a "cap") in most models, so you can't just take an average of prior actuals and extrapolate it forward like that. My feeling is that your prediction of ~252k will end up being too low, but there is also the issue of accurate reporting as you've pointed out.

107 days to go 143k today
I reckon 2500 average with all days after July 31st in the 1k-5k range so 410,500.

crazy to think we are still just at the beginning of this thing

I disagree. We're all living through a pandemic and there is no vaccine or therapy available at the moment.

Being aware of the danger might motivate us to be a little more careful with mask wearing and hand washing , social distancing etc.

If the over is 400,000 I'm taking it. States keep ****ing up. The R factor is still above 1 in most places which equals exponential growth.

Bump ...

My 252,397 Covid-19-deaths-by-election-day "guesstimate" may not be that far off. According to a report I heard last night, the Covid-19 death rate is now running at one death every 80 seconds. I'm not clear as to whether that is one death every 80 seconds in the United States or one death every 80 seconds world wide; so I'm assuming the former and not the latter. (Someone will correct me if my assumption is wrong.) Doing the math, that equates to [roughly] 1,080 deaths every 24 hours. ((60x60x24)/80) = 1,080.

The current death count is [approximately] 160,000. There are 89 days remaining until election day, so 89 x 1,080 = an additional 96,120 deaths. Summing the two numbers gives a ball park figure of 256,120. If the current "death rate" remains constant up to election day, my guesstimate/estimate may be off by less than 4,000 deaths.

You're still assuming deaths are a linear function of time. They aren't - see my post above.

Do we get excess death figures for the usa?

It is what it is

Covid-19 Death Count in Florida Intentionally Underreported

The interview with Rebekah Jones begins at the 23:23 mark of this podcast.

https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR...egQIARAF&hl=en

On top of the op being in bad taste, it's also amazing how this is a thread and not just a convo in the covid thread?
Sometimes I think you guys think of random stuff on your toilet and post back.
Please stop making random threads, PLEASE.

edit: to clarify your now diluting the covid discussion , especially your last post